Fantasy Football Bold Predictions - Nick Mariano's 2026 Picks

September 4, 2026

Nick Mariano's fantasy football bold predictions for the 2026 NFL season, including predictions for Baker Mayfield, Sam LaPorta, D'Andre Swift, and more.

The 2026 NFL season is starting a bit later than usual, but it's just around the corner now! Like you, this is the time when I'm ripping through many of my fantasy football drafts. Sure, it's also my wife's birthday soon, and we have silly things like social obligations, but this is no time for distractions!

While there's nothing wrong with taking some safe plays and stashing them away, that's not what this piece is about (though I will attempt to straddle actionable reality more than prior years). No, today I get to stretch my wings a bit and pen down my hopes, which are still based in reality (as I hope you'll be able to tell). As always, you can hand-wave and scoff at me all you like, but I swear there are at least a few brain cells and data points behind each of the following bold predictions.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. And now, here are my five bold predictions for the 2026 fantasy football season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Claim Top-Scoring Offense Title With 31 PPG

Baker Mayfield QB3, Bucky Irving RB6, Kenny Gainwell RB28, Chris Godwin Jr. WR12, Emeka Egbuka WR19, Jalen McMillan WR38, Ted Hurst III WR53

(Sorry, Cade Otton.)

Long, long ago, in the year 2024, the Buccaneers averaged nearly 30 points and 400 yards per game. While it was a great time for those who were invested, they still didn’t grab the top headlines with how insanely well Detroit and Cincinnati’s aerial attacks were, as well as Baltimore and Philadelphia’s rushing attacks.

So allow me to remind everyone just how crushed the 2025 Bucs were by injury, which ruined a hot 5-1 start and led to another gross NFC South finish at 8-9. Mayfield himself was an Operation game board with arm, knee, foot, oblique, and shoulder injuries. Godwin, Irving, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke, Cody Mauch, and so on.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield dealt with a sprained MCL and PCL, a bad biceps contusion and an AC joint shoulder sprain. He was on the injury report 10 out of 17 weeks. On top of that -- Jalen McMillan, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans missed a combined 30 starts. Tristan Wirfs, Ben…

— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) July 30, 2026

To say nothing of Mayfield being riled up after feeling miffed over contract extension negotiations! We all know chip-on-the-shoulder Baker is ready to scrap. But please try to forget last year. Sean Tucker and Rachaad White playing behind a hurt O-line couldn’t push the ball. A hurt Mayfield had rookie Egbuka, Sterling Shepard, and Tez Johnson downfield.

Mix in the wayward divisional opponents with crummy defenses and let’s see if Zac Robinson’s offense creates a spark. As someone suffering from chronic toe/foot pain, I cringe at any turf toe mention, but I don’t have NFL-caliber medication or treatment, either. Still, a boldie inside a boldie (shoutout Xzibit) is that Godwin outscores Egbuka. I believe he has at least one more "prime" campaign in the tank with more time removed from the left ankle fracture.

If Egbuka and McMillan need Week 1 to either rest up or be limited due to their respective toe and knee injuries, which GM Jason Licht says the team is simply being cautious with, then it can be a Bucky/Gainwell/Godwin/Hurst game against the Bengals defense!

Sam LaPorta is the Half-PPR TE2 with 12 TDs

LaPorta is part of that tight end cohort coming off an extended injury that ruined 2025 alongside George Kittle and Tucker Kraft. You can include Brock Bowers in that group as well if you think the PCL injury ground him down even after the IR stint. LaPorta had hoped to rehab his herniated disc, but ultimately needed surgery.

He gave us a brief scare with a hip injury, but he’s already back at practice with no notable concerns. Detroit’s runway to the top of the offensive charts is clean due to the state of its defense and a schedule saturated with dome games.

The Lions have a notoriously narrow target concentration, and LaPorta is the cheapest avenue to the every-down play on the board. The integration of new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who oversaw Trey McBride's rise to superstardom in Arizona, sure helps LaPorta's cause. LaPorta said that McBride was "super stoked" for him to work with Petzing.

If Tampa Bay is going to be my No. 1 offense, then Detroit won’t be far behind. It can average 30.8 PPG and call it square, yes? The general thesis here is that going from David Montgomery to a dinged-up Isiah Pacheco as a hammer will put more emphasis on the passing game. Jahmyr Gibbs is amazing, but it’s an undeniable shift in rushing personnel.

Comparing Weeks 1-9 (when LaPorta was active) between 2024 and 2025, you’ll see that LaPorta’s target-per-route-run rate rebounded from 0.15 to 0.22, but the team had fewer red-zone/end-zone targets to go around. Jameson Williams’ RZ usage decreased, while Amon-Ra St. Brown saw a bump.

Mixing the possibility for more RZ variance in his favor with reason to believe there will be more passing to go around leads me to ample enthusiasm for a big LaPorta year. It never hurts to have a little #ContractSeasonNarrative wind in your sails, right?

D'Andre Swift Earns a Top-10 RB Finish

Everyone has been captivated by Luther Burden III this and Colston Loveland that, and even Rome Odunze’s foot is ok! It’s understandable and totally valid, but Kyle Monangai missing significant offseason time due to a hyperextended knee hasn’t given Swift as notable a rise as I expected.

As far as knee injuries go, a hyperextension gives reason for optimism, but the time off resting/rehabbing gave way for Swift to be highlighted by many beat writers as the star of camp. And as of September 1, Monangai is still wearing a "week-to-week" designation, so this is no sure thing to clear up anytime soon.

We know that Ben Johnson loves to set up his deep strikes (the team’s 8.6 average depth of target was the sixth highest in ‘25), but again, the focus on splash plays and buzzy WR/TE can cloud things. The Bears’ 41% rush rate and -3.9% pass rate over expectation ranked 11th.

Bears fans won’t be shocked to learn that 62% of rushes went to the right behind bulldozer RT Darnell Wright, whose 82.8 PFF run block grade was just outside of the top-10 OT scores. RG Jonah Jackson and LG Joe Thuney are strong guards who can play well into Johnson’s unorthodox attack angles.

This foundation is further illustrated by Swift and Monangai respectively boasting the second and seventh lowest “Stuff” rate (no first down or TD, less than four yards on first down, less than three yards on other downs) out of 49 rushers with at least 100 carries.

Further reflecting the scheme advantage, Swift had a healthy 2.69 yards before contact per attempt, ranked eighth among that 49 RB group, and a respectable 2.19 after (tied with Jahmyr Gibbs). And many on that list enjoy more open fields for defenders to respect, but only Derrick Henry and J.K. Dobbins held a higher YBCO/Att with a team share of inside-the-five carries above 50%.

Just when you think you have a beat on when Johnson’s offense is either rushing or passing, the creative bunches, motions, and critical moments to hit a long play-action shot will correct you. A strong line, a creative mind that builds on an effective rushing threat, Swift's own talents, and Monangai’s injury red flag combine for a buzzy cocktail.

Stefon Diggs Runs Back a Top-20 WR Finish in PPR

Diggs hasn’t climbed nearly enough on PPR draft boards after signing with Washington following a WR17 finish in '25. That offensive line is in trouble without Laremy Tunsil holding the edge, and getting quicker outs to a safety valve is going to be critical to both success and health. I wasn't planning on this feeling that bold, but his stock continued to stay suppressed, so I guess it is?

For all of the worry this writer has about the overall potency of the offense and a lower scoring ceiling, this particular format balances this out with the expectation for Diggs’ role and several negative game scripts. My numbers don’t have Washington pulling away from many opponents across ‘26, though the team has held a top-5 neutral pace of play in ‘25 and ‘24.

And for all of the off-field concerns (he was at the courthouse right down the road from my favorite bagel place!), Diggs just put up 1,013 yards on 85 catches for a Patriots team that was not often pressed to chuck it for a full 60 minutes.

Again, we know this team won’t match the ‘25 Pats’ 490 points, and Diggs now has Terry McLaurin there, too. But Diggs also only scored four touchdowns last year. He could reasonably top that in Washington, which feels weird to type out.

But the Commanders don’t have New England’s defense, nor are Jacory Croskey-Merritt/Rachaad White going to command the same share as Rhamondre Stevenson/TreVeyon Henderson. Washington also has little WR noise behind Diggs and “F1,” with rookie Antonio Williams unable to separate from Treylon Burks, Luke McCaffrey, and so on during the offseason.

With an ADP in the WR4 range (~WR40 per recent consensus PPR ADP), he’s a great price to wind up with another top-20 PPR campaign for an exciting, albeit not successful, Commanders campaign. Again, this feels particularly un-bold, but the market prices make it so.

Ryan Flournoy, Romeo Doubs, and Jalen Coker outscore Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, and Carnell Tate

It’s always fun to do a group exercise. The ADPs around these guys are worlds apart, yet are the numbers going to reflect that? I’ll briefly touch on the haterade angles before getting to the good stuff.

Even before the bearish preseason clips, Tate and the Titans were not a show I wanted to tune into. Metcalf may adjust to Aaron Rodgers in Year 2, but Michael Pittman Jr. provides more competition, and Courtland Sutton has to vie with Jaylen Waddle and Patty Ice (Pat Bryant) on a team that can win through its defense.

With most Patriot eyes on A.J. Brown, Doubs is not getting his deserved respect as a true big-play threat. Even in a crowded Green Bay receiver room, Doubs ran a 0.105 first-down-per-route-run rate, ranking 22nd out of 139 WR/TE with at least 25 catches. Stefon Diggs was at 0.127, and both Christian Watson/Tucker Kraft were ahead of him as well.

Doubs scored six touchdowns; seven included the playoff loss to Chicago, with three of them coming in the Week 4 shootout with Dallas. Without Diggs or Kayshon Boutte, that’s 148 vacated targets and 10 of last year’s pass TDs gone. Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams, and Efton Chism III combined for another nine TDs. I think 6-8 scores is reasonable with a growing Drake Maye.

Coker was a beast after getting healthy legs and starting momentum under him, quickly earning the trust of Bryce Young and Dave Canales following that danged preseason quad injury. Showing up when the lights were brightest with 9-134-1 on 12 targets to alpha dog Tetairoa McMillan in the playoffs is beautiful.

Just watch him win at different levels in the following compilation, earning valuable first-read looks throughout the game, including that final Carolina TD.

pic.twitter.com/Fjg2SZTg5e

— Performances (@NotPerformances) January 11, 2026

Logging a 28-378-4 line across their final six games came with a slight target-per-route-run advantage over Tet, including a 4:1 red-zone target ratio advantage, five missed tackles forced, and a 6-for-6 conversion rate on contested targets (per Fantasy Points Data). Tet was 3-of-6 in that department. The point is that he’s a baller and can play at that level.

Flournoy got a chance to stand out with 114 yards on six catches with CeeDee Lamb out in Week 5, but they were still running more Jalen Tolbert at the time. But when Lamb got concussed in Week 14 at Detroit, Tolbert was a healthy scratch, and Flournoy shined with a 9-115-1 pop on 13 looks.

He was showing out down the stretch as a No. 3 WR, logging a 4-40-0 line against Minnesota the following week and catching a touchdown in Week 16 before a sprained knee knocked him out and forced him to miss Week 17. The regular-season finale brought a 5-68-0 contribution. With a 0.27 TPRR in Weeks 14-18 next to Lamb (0.23) and Pickens (0.18), we can conceive that they will integrate him more throughout ‘26.

Bonus Boldish Prediction Quick Hits

*Jahmyr Gibbs outscores the No. 2 fantasy player by 33.3 PPR points. (He was 50 points behind Christian McCaffrey last year.)

*Rashid Shaheed shines as one of the cheapest No. 2 WRs around. Jamo Lite? Not so lite?

*Rashod Bateman fends off camp highlight-reel Ja'Kobi Lane once the games matter en route to a 60-900-7 seasonal line as the WR22. Or they both smash as Mark Andrews fades.

*Running backs once again carry the torch with good health surrounding the big names, leading to even more robust RB content ahead of a 2027 crash.

**I’d planned on a Tyler Shough blurb, but the injuries around him are mounting. I remain excited, but even I have limits here.

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