RADIO
I'm feeling a little bit of the Christmas spirit as I put together my Week 15 GPP DFS stacks. No, none of that good will towards men crap. There is not a single group of men, or women for that matter, I deem worthy of my good tidings. However, I do feel like we are going to see something magical this weekend. Some end of the roster player whose family member is deathly ill makes some huge play to either secure or give his team a victory.
Just like a child hoping for ol' St. Nick to arrive, there is nothing wrong with a little wishful thinking, right?
Of course, we all know that a sensible mind banks on the chalk. And the chalk is likely going to be TB, TEN, and BAL. Maybe even whoever is playing the Jets, which in this case is Jared Goff and the Rams. With the chalk out of the way, that leaves us some interesting GPP DFS stacks.
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!All three of my suggestions might make you feel a little uneasy. But embrace the uneasiness! Do you think Santa likes giving a lump of coal to the naughty kids? I bet you it makes him feel uneasy too, but he's still had some pretty good success. Then again, I never got a lump of coal, so maybe he doesn't do that. That, however, is a debate for another time. Here are my week 15 GPP stack recommendations.
The "I was just a week ahead, right?" Stack
New Orleans Saints
I was all aboard the Saints last week and they got tripped up by rookie Jalen Hurts. But that was a low-scoring affair. When you play Kansas City like the Saints do this week, you had better be able to score. And I don't think Sean Peyton is going to be embarrassed two weeks in a row. As I said last week, one of the great things about RotoBaller is the premium chats. As one participant said, we've seen Taysom Hill's floor as a starting QB, but are we so sure we've seen his ceiling yet? And he's right.
He's typically accounted for two TDs a week. In the first two weeks of his starting tenure, he didn't pass for a single TD but ran for two scores. week. Two weeks he didn't run for a TD, but he did pass for a pair of TDs. Might we see two of each this week? Since Hill became the Saints starter, he has been fantasy's sixth-best quarterback. And I expect Hill to continue to do what he does best--run. Kansas City has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks. The Saints will look to keep Mahomes and the KC offense on the sidelines, so we should see lots of running from Hill, similar to what they have done all season. The books have this game close enough that we should see a neutral game script. But should Hill need to take to the air, I think he can still have success.
UPDATE: Adam Schefter is reporting that Drew Brees will start this week. Adjust your DFS lineups accordingly
And that will start with Michael Thomas. After catching all eight of his targets his last week for 84 yards, Thomas now has 16 or more PPR fantasy points in three of his last four games. It's starting to become a punchline, but Thomas has yet to catch a TD this year either. Obviously, some of that is due to the number of games he missed this year. But let's not forget that Thomas is a player with nine touchdowns each of the previous two years. To say he's overdue for a TD is an understatement. Despite not scoring, Thomas is still accounting for nearly 52% of the Saints WR production. I'll go bold and say Thomas gets a score this weekend.
The better bet might be to bet on Jared Cook. He has caught six of nine targets over his last two games to convert that into 65 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Additionally, one of the best ways to attack the Chiefs is at tight end. They are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the position this year. Mike Gisecki's big game last week marked the third tight end in the last four weeks the Chiefs have allowed to produce top-five numbers. Tight Ends are averaging 1.90 PPR points per target against KC, which is the 11th-highest mark in football.
Cook is wonderfully cheap, which means you could easily fit the studly Tyreek Hill in as a run back as well.
The "I can't believe I'm actually doing this" Stack
Chicago Bears
Wanna know how much I liked Mitch Trubisky this year? I left Draftmas with Nick Foles as my 2nd QB in my primary 2-QB league. But I'm man enough to admit I was wrong. Very wrong. But it's hard to ignore what the Bears have done since switching back to Trubisky. Over the last three weeks, the Bears have scored 25, 30, and 36 points. Even more amazing is that Trubisky has not one, not two, but THREE touchdowns in half of his six games. Furthermore, Trubisky is also coming off a very strong game, notching 267 passing yards and three scores on 33 pass attempts.
Of course one of the reasons I can't believe I'm recommending a Bears stack is that Trubisky's history against the Vikings is more disgusting than Ditka's underarms. But this Minnesota defense is one of the weaker squads Vikings fans have seen lately. Vikings have given up the seventh-most passing yards and only four teams have given up more passing TDs than Minnesota. Trubisky is priced outside out of QB1 territory on both sites but I think he can creep into low-end QB1 territory on this slate.
If Trubisky does, it going to be because of Allen Robinson most likely. I hope I don't have to tell you that all Robinson has done this year despite what we will call sub-optimal QB play. But Robinson has continued to excel week in and week out. He's put six on the scoreboard three times over the last three games while hauling in 23 passes for 272 yards. Lions and Texans are not exactly grueling match-ups, but the Vikings are pretty mouth-watering as well.
The Vikes are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game (41.9) to wide receivers. Minnesota is being blown off course for 8.97 yards per target (5th-most). Plus, they have given up 20 TDs to WRs; only Dallas has given up more. Robinson moves around quite a bit, so tough to pinpoint who will cover him when. But my guess is that Robinson will see quite a bit of Chris Jones, who’s allowed 18-of-21 passing for 192 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage.
I've talked a lot about Cole Kmet lately, and for good reason. He played 85% of the snaps last week and that's now the fourth game in a row he has seen at least 70% of the snaps. Despite Jimmy Graham still around, Kmet has still been targeted 14 targets over his last two games. Interestingly, Minnesota's opponents have not heavily targeted tight ends. Yet when they have, success has followed. The 8.34 yards per target given up by Minnesota is the third-worst mark in the league. Of the half dozen tight ends who’ve seen more than four targets against the Vikes, every one of them finished with at least 10.5 PPR points.
And if you want a run back, you can go with either of Minnesota's leading pair of receivers. The last time these two teams squared off, Adam Thielen grabbed two touchdowns. In the same game, Justin Jefferson hauled in eight passes himself and went for another ho-hum 100+ yard game of 135 yards. I've loved Jefferson all year, but this tweet alone has me leaning towards Thielen.
Thielen is too smooth ?
(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/zdmGs8rJUi
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 13, 2020
I don't think you will go wrong with either of the two though. And perhaps the runback might make feel both of us feel better about this potential stack? Speaking of stacks that are far from chalky.....
The "Other Side of the Chalk" Stack
Detroit Lions
The Lions are not a good defensive team, so I definitely like the Titans this week and any of their WRs are an obvious runback here. But has the Tennessee defense impressed you? Me neither. So if the Titans are scoring a bunch, doesn't it make sense that the Lions might also?
It is looking like Chase Daniel is going to start this week, which means we can save a ton of salary. And I've always liked Chase Daniel since he came out of Missouri. He's not an elite talent, but he's a good player who had just never had his chance. He started his career behind a Drew Brees in his prime and next thing you know he's become a journeyman quarterback. But I think he brings enough experience and skills that he can be a viable play this week.
Did that sound convincing? Because I do believe it, but the truth is this much more about the match-up than anything else. The Titans are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and their Defense DVOA is ranked 26th in the league. Tennessee and only six other teams are enabling their opponents to score more than 100 PPR points per game. To put that into perspective, only three offenses are averaging 100+ PPR points per game (KC, GB, and SEA). The Titans have allowed 28 passing TDs, tied for the league most. Daniel is not exactly Mike Vick, so it's also beneficial to know that Tennessee has notched a sack on a league-worst 2.59% of opposing dropbacks. Again, to give you a little perspective, the next closest is 3.08% or almost 20% better.
Presuming Kenny Golladay doesn't play this week, no Lion WRs piques my fancy. However, I am liking T.J. Hockenson. He's finished as the TE14 or better in nine of his last 10 games. It helps explain why Hockenson has the third most fantasy points of all TEs this year. Tennessee has allowed at least 2.0 PPR points per target to tight ends. There are seven tight ends who’ve seen half a dozen or more targets against them, and every single one of them finished with 11-plus PPR points.
And I'm going to go with a little less traditional move and stack D'Andre Swift here. Tennessee is being rolled over by RBs for the sixth-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity. Worried about negative game flow? Don't be. In the half dozen games that all three Lions RBs have been on the field, Swift has 109 routes while Johnson has 61 and Peterson has run 35. With Tennessee giving up 1.72 PPR points per target to running backs, things are looking up for Swift. The Titans have allowed 13 different RBs to finish as an RB2 or better.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
