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NFL Draft Predictions - 1st Round Mock Draft (2023)

Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

We are now less than a month away from the 2023 NFL Draft! Free Agency, as well as the NFL Scouting Combine, have ended and the annual owner's meetings recently concluded as well. Now that players have signed some big deals and teams have tipped their hands about how they feel about certain position groups on their roster, that should help make things a little clearer for the rest of us in these mock drafts.

Let the guessing games begin! Who will end up on which teams? The time for mock drafts has begun, so here is RotoBaller’s third mock draft of the 2023 season.

It's become pretty clear that the top 2 teams in the NFL Draft: the Panthers and the Texans have a glaring need at quarterback, so it feels like the draft starts with the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3. Will they find a suitor from someone else who is willing to come up and grab another quarterback, or will they stand pat and take the best position player on the board? Back in the 2021 NFL Draft, we saw three quarterbacks go with the first three picks. Only once have four quarterbacks gone in the Top 10 and that was back in 2018 with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen.

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Lamar Jackson Has Requested A Trade

This is the big shoe to drop if a trade goes down before the draft as the ripple effect will be felt all across the draft board. While the Ravens may feel comfortable starting Tyler Huntley for the time being, they likely will want to secure a long-term option. If Lamar Jackson is dealt, the Ravens are better off getting picks in this year's draft compared to next year's when those picks could be in the back of the first round from Lamar starting for that new team who is likely ready to make a playoff push.

Hopefully, we aren't headed for an agonizing game of chicken all summer as the Ravens and Lamar continue to stare each other down and see who will blink first. Understandably, the Ravens don't want to give him a fully-guaranteed contract given his recent injury history and Lamar isn't doing himself any favors without hiring an agent to help him navigate these murky waters.

While the Ravens may think they have all the leverage with the franchise tag, it just isn't a good look for the future of their franchise. A quarterback is usually seen as the face of one as well as the leader and it's hard to have a player lead from the top when he is constantly at odds with management and doesn't feel appreciated by them. If the Ravens and Lamar can't agree to a deal it's best for all sides to just part ways and move on.

Who would the interested parties be? Indianapolis at 4, New England at 14, and even Washington at 16. The Commanders make the most sense given their recent hire of Eric Bieniemy, no large financial commitment to a quarterback on their roster, and a front office that needs to start winning. If the Commanders will soon be sold, can't we make the argument that having Lamar Jackson under contract makes the franchise more valuable? Until something is resolved the Lamar saga will loom over the NFL Draft. We could make the same argument for Aaron Rodgers, the Packers, and the New York Jets, but the sense is that situation will be resolved sooner rather than later.

Now let's dive into this mock draft, shall we?

 

The Top 10 NFL Draft Picks

1. Carolina Panthers

C.J. Stroud - QB, Ohio State

This one remains unchanged. While the Panthers are doing their due diligence interviewing other prospects and showing up at their Pro Days, it does seem like the pick will be Stroud. After an impressive performance at the Citrus Bowl where he threw dimes all over the place against the Georgia defense, Stroud followed that up with a solid showing at the NFL Combine.

Anthony Richardson will inevitably get some buzz for this spot as many have already compared him to former Panther great: Cam Newton, but Frank Reich has mostly only worked with pocket passers. A-Rich has plenty of upside, but Stroud and Young just feel much more polished and ready to start in Week 1 of 2023. Owner David Tepper made it very clear that the team needed to get their franchise guy and get out of QB purgatory. Here is your new quarterback of the future, Panthers fans. Good luck!

2. Houston Texans

Bryce Young - QB, Alabama

After tanking for the better part of the two seasons it did not seem realistic for the Texans to punt on a quarterback for another one. While there are legitimate concerns about his size and durability after Young measured in at 5 foot 10 1/2 and 204 lbs. at the NFL Combine, he is too good of a passer for the Texans to pass on him here. He would be an outlier in terms of NFL success at his size and the closest player in NFL history we can probably compare him to is Doug Flutie. Luckily for Young's sake, NFL offenses have greatly evolved in the last 40 years.

While Young needs some more pieces around him, the Texans' offense is beginning to take shape with their new signal caller and Dameon Pierce. Young will also be reunited with his college teammate: John Metchie III, who is hopefully recovering and healthy this season. Young's tape over the last two years was nearly flawless, the only knock on him is his size/durability and if he can hold up over the rigors of a 17-game season.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Will Anderson - OLB/Edge, Alabama

A lot of mocks have the Colts moving up one spot to grab a quarterback here, but GM Chris Ballard has always been a stingy negotiator, especially with draft picks. He's the kind of GM who prefers to trade back rather than up. Anderson is the top-ranked player on Dane Brugler's 2023 NFL Draft board and has some scouts comparing him to Von Miller with his explosiveness off the edge on top of his athletic bend.

Anderson was an absolute beast in his last two seasons posting 147 pressures, 98 hurries, and 29 sacks along with 3 passes batted over his last 28 games. He had an impressive performance at the Combine with a 1.61 10-yard split after measuring in at 6 foot 3 1/2 and 253 lbs. His 2022 tape wasn't as good as his 2021, but Arizona has arguably the worst OL/DL combination in the NFL. Anderson is a nice cornerstone to have for the next decade.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson - QB, Florida

Richardson lit up the NFL Combine and tested as the most athletic quarterback ever. He's still a raw prospect and needs to develop more as a passer, but his arm strength and upside are there. New Colts head coach Shane Steichen was with Justin Herbert during his rookie year with the Chargers and helped to develop Jalen Hurts during his last two in Philadelphia into a borderline MVP Candidate. There isn't a better head coach fit for Richardson than Steichen. The question is whether he will be ready to play right away and how patient Jim Irsay and the Colts are willing to be.

Should Lamar Jackson get traded to Indianapolis it's hard not to see this pick being a part of the deal. The ideal situation for A-Rich is probably the Lions or Seahawks where he could mostly sit for one season. Richardson is still just 21 and won't even turn 22 for another two months. The Lions and Seahawks have been pretty tight-lipped about their draft plans, especially at QB. It's a situation worth monitoring just in case they move up for Richardson though.

5. Seattle Seahawks

Tyree Wilson - DE/Edge, Texas Tech

A physical specimen off the edge, Wilson missed the Senior Bowl and wasn't able to participate in all of the drills at the NFL Combine. If drafted here he would be the first Big 12 defensive player to go in the Top 10 on draft day since Justin Gilbert in 2014. Wilson had 87 pressures over the last two seasons to go along with 14 sacks and 58 hurries. The Seahawks add a nice edge rusher to their defense.

6. Detroit Lions

Christian Gonzalez - CB, Oregon

The Lions have made some additions to their secondary, but it's still not hard to see the Lions going defense with all 4 of their picks in the first 2 rounds of the draft as they struggled mightily to stop any opponents last season on that side of the ball. Jalen Carter could make sense here given the Lions have a lot of picks to absorb some of the risks, but given how Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes want to revamp the Lions' culture, Gonzalez is the pick here. He is a big, physical corner with excellent ball-hawking skills and isn't afraid to make a tackle.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Jalen Carter - DT, Georgia

In a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson it makes too much sense to not want as many guys who can get after the quarterback as possible. Carter is an absolute freak with very nimble feet who can play all three downs and get after the QB. The Raiders' offense is pretty much set for the time being and Carter would be an immediate starter in Week 1. His slide ends here and the Raiders get what might be the best overall player in the draft if not for some off the field issues.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Devon Witherspoon - CB, Illinois

The Falcons' secondary has AJ Terrell and they recently signed free-agent safety Jesse Bates. The defensive overhaul continues with Witherspoon, who is a physical corner that isn't afraid of contact and should fit right in. There has been some chatter about Bijan Robinson potentially going in this spot as well.

9. Chicago Bears

Peter Skoronski - T, Northwestern

The Bears continue to revamp their offense after getting DJ Moore and signing several offensive linemen in free agency. A hometown kid from Park Ridge, IL. Some scouts believe that Skoronski may be better suited for playing guard in the NFL due to his shorter arm length. Given the high number of draft picks the Bears will have over the next two years, protecting Justin Fields should be their biggest priority.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Nolan Smith - OLB/Edge, Georgia

Smith had an incredible NFL Combine where he ran a 4.39 forty-yard dash with a 1.52 10-yard split as well as a 41.5-inch vertical. He is a little undersized at 6-2, 238 lbs, but his talent and potential are undeniable. Is he better with his hand on the ground as a pure edge rusher or can he play some zone and add versatility to the Eagles' defense? Howie Roseman loves his edge guys. Smith is a luxury pick here for an already good defense.

 

Picks No. 11-21: Where Do the Other Quarterbacks Fall?

11. *TRADE* Tampa Bay Bucs

Will Levis - QB, Kentucky

After Levis falls out of the top 10, the Bucs send 19, 50, and 153 to move up and grab him on draft day. Tampa's roster is still very win-now and wouldn't be the worst spot for a rookie quarterback to step into. After Tom Brady retired they needed a trap door, so to speak, to escape through and reset their plans. Levis is a very polarizing prospect, but the ball explodes out of his hand and he has all the upside in the world.

12. Houston Texans

Lukas Van Ness - DE, Iowa

A player with a high motor who did well at the NFL Combine, Van Ness has been rising up boards of late. The Texans could use another wide receiver or tight end here to help Bryce Young, but Caserio is an old-school GM who wants to continue building up in the trenches.

13. New York Jets

Broderick Jones - T, Georgia

In the end, it's very hard to see the Jets parting ways with this pick. Mekhi Becton has largely been a bust in his time in New York. He has struggled to keep his weight down and has been injured, only playing in 1 game for the past two seasons. Duane Brown isn't getting any younger and if Aaron Rodgers is indeed brought in the Jets know they will need to help keep him upright. This is a solid tackle class and Jones fills a deep need here.

14. New England Patriots

Drew Sanders - LB, Arkansas

Another physical specimen, Sanders transferred to Arkansas for 2022 after not playing much in his two seasons at Alabama. Sanders shined last season with 39 total pressures, 11 sacks, 90 total tackles, and 1 INT. He is a versatile, 3-down type of linebacker who can make plays all over the field and is just scratching the surface of his upside. While this may seem high for him, the Patriots have never been shy about taking players they like earlier than expected. Sanders gives Bill Belichick a much-needed defensive chess piece.

15. Green Bay Packers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Ohio St.

The Packers' front office has made it very clear they are moving on from Aaron Rodgers and will now build around Jordan Love. There is a bit of irony in this pick since they never drafted a wide receiver in Round 1 during Aaron Rodgers's entire tenure in Green Bay. Christian Watson is a burner on the outside and his game balances nicely with Smith-Njigba's to give the Packers' offense a solid inside-out combo. Romeo Dobbs also makes a solid No. 3 WR as well. JSN fills a need and should be a solid security blanket for the Packers' new man under center.

16. Washington Commanders

Bijan Robinson - RB, Texas

The pick everyone has been waiting for! Bijan is ready to make running backs great again. While some may question the landing spot here, Washington has some underrated skill players on offense already and they've made it pretty clear they are going to stay put at quarterback and see what they have in Sam Howell. Given Robinson's immense talent, it's hard to see him falling further than this pick, whether it's with Washington or somebody else trading up.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Joey Porter Jr. - CB, Penn State

Now this one makes too much sense, doesn't it? Porter is the son of former Steelers linebacker Joey Porter. He is a bigger cornerback at 6-foot-2 and will bring some much-needed physicality to their secondary. This pick is a match made in heaven for Steelers Nation in a division with Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson

18. Detroit Lions

Calijah Kancey - DT, Pittsburgh

GM Brad Holmes was in the Rams' front office when they drafted an undersized DT from Pitt named Aaron Donald. I'd say that one worked out quite nicely. The only concern from scouts is Kancey's arm size which measured 30 5/8 inches. Will he be able to get off of blocks from offensive linemen in the interior? Otherwise, his tape is fantastic, and teams like him.

19. Tennessee Titans

Paris Johnson Jr. - OT, Ohio State

New Titans GM Ran Carthon is happy to move back and add some extra picks on top of rebuilding their aging offensive line. It's pretty clear he wants to rebuild the Titans and 2023 might be the year that the team takes it on the chin and resets. If the Titans pick high in next year's draft and end up taking a quarterback, his franchise left tackle will already be on the roster.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Kelee Ringo - CB, Georgia

Another player who may seem high on the board here, Ringo has a nose for finding the ball. He had the most famous pick-6 in Georgia football history when he intercepted Bryce Young in the prior season's National Championship Game and took it to the house. Ringo is best suited for a Cover 3-type of scheme that Pete Carroll likes to run. Like the Patriots, the Seahawks have never been shy about taking their guys earlier than expected.

Miami Dolphins

Forfeited - TAMPERING 

This pick technically doesn't count on the official NFL Draft Board. The Dolphins didn't end up with Tom Brady or Sean Payton and instead got a lawsuit from Brian Flores. They also lost their 2024 third-round pick. This would have been the perfect spot for Bijan Robinson.

 

Picks No. 22-32: Where Will the WRs Go?

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Jalin Hyatt - WR, Tennessee

The Chargers' offense desperately needs some deep speed after not being able to get vertical at all on offense in 2022. Someone said that the Dolphins were running their offense in 2022 like it had Justin Herbert's arm and the Chargers were running their offense like it had Tua Tagovailoa's arm. Keenan Allen is getting up there in age, Mike Williams hasn't been able to stay healthy, and Josh Palmer hasn't stepped up as the team had hoped. Hyatt is a burner who would significantly open up their offense again.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Jordan Addison - WR, USC

Regardless if Lamar Jackson stays with the Ravens in 2023, offensive wizard Todd Monken was brought in to be the new OC and Baltimore will transition to more of an air raid type of offense. They don't have much depth behind Rashod Bateman and need to start acquiring the personnel to fit their new offensive scheme. Baltimore has had a tough time signing free-agent wide receivers in the past so the easiest way to assess this is through the draft.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Deonte Banks - CB, Maryland

This is a deep cornerback class. After adding the talented Byron Murphy Jr. in free agency, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah continues to rehaul the Vikings' secondary. Banks measured in at 6-0 and 197 lbs. while running a 4.35 forty-yard dash on top of a 42-inch vertical at the NFL Combine. He's a solid player.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

O'Cyrus Torrence - G, Florida

Torrence stays in Florida and Jacksonville fills a need while getting the best guard in the draft. It's not an overly sexy pick, but Trent Baalke and Doug Pederson know they need to continue to protect the franchise cornerstone, Trevor Lawrence, at all costs.

25. New York Giants

Quentin Johnston - WR, TCU

There are a lot of mixed reviews on Johnson and Big 12 wide receivers in general. Some say he's too much of a body catcher and plays much smaller than a WR who is 6-3 and 208 lbs. Johnston didn't run at the NFL Combine, but he did post a 40.5-inch vertical on top of an 11'2" broad jump. Even after trading for Darren Waller, the Giants' offense needs a true X-receiver to go along with Isaiah Hodgins, Sterling Shepard, and Wan'Dale Robinson. Johnston fits that mold as Brian Daboll continues to add more playmakers to this side of the ball for his team.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Darnell Washington, TE - Georgia

A physical specimen at 6-foot-7 and 264 lbs., Washington looks like what may have happened if Martellus Bennett had a son whose DNA was crossed with a micromachine inside of an MIT Lab. Washington is almost like having a third tackle on the field at all times, and he is just scratching the surface of his upside as a pass catcher. Why didn't he have more production in college? Well, he was playing alongside Brock Bowers, who is sure to be a Top 15 pick next season.

27. Buffalo Bills

Zay Flowers, WR - Boston College

It's no secret the Bills need to add another weapon for Josh Allen after Gabe Davis didn't live up to the hype last year. Flowers only measured in at 5-9, but he plays much bigger than his size would suggest. He's a human highlight reel. Given how expensive WR contracts have become, the Bills would be smart to take advantage of getting a good one on a rookie deal here.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Michael Mayer - TE, Notre Dame

He isn't a burner by any stretch but Mayer is a natural pass catcher on top of being a great run blocker. Mayer measured in at 6-foot-4 1/2 and 249 lbs. at the NFL Combine while running a 4.7 forty-yard dash on top of a 1.66 10-yard split. Mayer has soft hands for being such a large tight end and with his football IQ just feels like a Joe Burrow kind of guy.

29. New Orleans Saints

Myles Murphy - DE/Edge, Clemson

After not participating at the NFL Combine, Murphy will also miss Clemson's Pro Day due to a hamstring injury according to ESPN's Jordan Reid. This could hurt his draft stock, but the Saints are more than happy to take the promising edge rusher after he falls on draft day. New Orleans could go any number of ways here, but in order to win the NFC South they need their aging defensive unit to remain formidable. After losing Marcus Davenport in free agency the Saints need to address their defensive line.

30. Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Bresee - DT, Clemson

After losing some starters the Eagles need to continue to infuse some more youth and playmakers into their defense. Bresee is a very talented player who had a down year in 2022 after suffering an injury and had some personal issues of his own. Howie Roseman is ecstatic to land Bresee and give the Eagles a physical duo upfront with Jordan Davis after Fletcher Cox inevitably retires.

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Brian Branch - S, Alabama

Juan Thornhill left in free agency to sign with the Cleveland Browns and the Chiefs stop Branch's slide here in what many scouts feel is an underwhelming safety class. Branch has plenty of experience and should be an instant starter for Kansas City.

Some of these selections will change over the next 4 weeks as teams make more free-agent moves and several schools have their pro days. Stay liquid everyone and thanks for reading!



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