RADIO
The Week 14 GPP DFS stacks come with questions as there are more than half a dozen possible stacks for cash games this week: GB, LAC, CHI, HOU, ATL, TEN, and SEA just to name a few.
This week sets up as a very interesting week as any of the stacks above could be the optimum play this week. Of course, we all know what the downside of chalk is. You might even have one of the higher producing stacks this weekend if you go one with one of the options above, but find yourself sharing the winnings with far too many others.
Furthermore, pure chalk rarely wins a GPP, so obviously I will be avoiding all of those chalkier options this week. It leads to some pretty aggressive plays. However, I was confident in week 13 and it paid off nicely, and nd I'm confident again this week. Here are my week 14 GPP stack recommendations.
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The "Revenge Is Best Served Cold, But This Is Not" Stack
Dallas Cowboys
Let's discuss this now and get it out of the way for those who believe in revenge narratives. Yes, despite having Dalton still on the roster, the Bengals drafted Joe Burrow and then released Dalton a week later. But does this sound like a man trying to drive a cold stake into the hearts of Bengals fans?
Andy Dalton with the Dallas media today.
"When I think about Cincinnati, we don't just think about football. We think about the hospital and these kids and families."#Bengals #Cowboys @fox19 pic.twitter.com/OAXbHM6kw3
— Jeremy Rauch (@FOX19Jeremy) December 10, 2020
I'm not saying the Bengals were wrong or right. I'm not saying that we should see even more out of Dalton because of it. Or not. But some do, so I wanted to acknowledge that and move forward.
Regardless if Dalton is "extra-motivated" or not, I like Dalton this week. The simple reason is that he's been pretty good lately. Over the last three weeks, he's completed more than 2/3 of his passes and has a 2:1 ratio of TDs to INTs that I prefer my QBs to have. Also, recall that two of those games the last three weeks include Washington and Baltimore. Neither of those secondaries is anything to sneeze at, but the Bengals are league average when it comes to giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks. However, the Bengals have been much worse since their week 9 bye than they were previously in the season.
They haven't generated more than a 22.2 pressure rate since mid-way of the season. They are sacking opposing signal-callers on less than 3% of all dropbacks. That's particularly relevant given that Dalton is not exactly a mobile quarterback. Cincy has permitted 0.488 fantasy points per actual pass attempt, which is the 9th most in the league, behind Minnesota. I mentioned the Vikes because, despite just 32 pass attempts, Dalton threw for three scores against them. As I put together my GPP arsenal for this weekend, I'm grabbing the Red Rifle.
I am a big fan of Michael Gallup this week and I will be including him in my various DFS lineups that include Dalton. Trust me, I had written off Gallup this year. However, in one of my seasonal leagues where I dropped him months ago, I went back in and grabbed him again after he posted a seven-catch 86-yards-and-a-score day last week. For all those saying he's been surpassed by Lamb, Gallup is just 72 yards behind Lamb, yet he's caught 20 more passes. He's also out-targeted him since the Cowboys bye in week 9 as well. I think that trend continues given the coverage on the opposing side. While Amari Cooper will likely be shadowed by William Jackson, Gallup will likely get either Darius Phillips or LeShaun Sims. The former was just activated from the IR but the latter has been atrocious in his coverage, allowing 39-of-49 passing for 465 yards and five scores. As the cheapest of the three options, I like Gallup to have the greatest ROI.
If you want to start either Cooper or CeeDee Lamb, I wouldn't fault you for it. But I like Dalton Schultz even more this week. Schultz is currently a top-12 tight end and hasn't even started every game this year. He's managed to score 7.4 or more PPR points in nine of 11 starts. But I think we see more of a ceiling game from him this week. Cincinnati has allowed opposing tight ends 16.1 PPR points per game, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Some of that is pure volume. Tight Ends opposite the Bengals are getting 8.7 targets per game, highest in the NFL. That has resulted in 822 yards, also a league-high. Touchdowns have been only slightly tougher, as the seven touchdowns they’ve allowed is the 7th highest. Nine separate tight ends have posted double-digit PPR points when facing the Bengals. Schultz's targets have been dropping each of the past five weeks, but I think he rebounds nicely this week.
The "Too Cheap To Avoid" Stack
There's something about back-up QBs who become suddenly DFS profitable options. This is why I again will go with one of the cheapest options on the board.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Glennon is no future Hall-Of-Famer, but he gets the job done. And I think he will continue to do so against a suddenly very porous Titan secondary. They are being ripped apart for the fifth-most quarterback fantasy points per game. That is supported by the Titans giving up a league-high 27 passing touchdowns. The Titans have allowed the most fantasy points per game through the air to opposing signal-callers. They’ve been torched for at least two passing touchdowns to 9 of a dozen quarterbacks, while just two quarterbacks have finished with less than 249 passing yards. They're not exactly stopping them behind the line of scrimmage either. The Titans possess a league-low 2.87 percent sack-rate. Glennon hasn't been bad. But the match-up makes him even better.
This game has an over/under of nearly 53 with even the Jags having an implied total around 24 points. There should be plenty of offense and therefore we need to consider the Jaguars' wide receivers as well. The good news is that the Titans have been a fantasy points charity to wide receivers. They are giving up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They have given up 196 receptions this year, second-most this season. That gives DJ Chark a reasonable floor, especially since the Titans have allowed 22 WRs to notch 10.7 or more PPR points against them. Chark is likely to be shadowed by Malcolm Butler. He apparently has concentric red rings on his uniform as he has been targeted a whopping 78 times this year. That's the second-most in the league. But it is not hard to see why, as he's given up 52 catches for 642 yards and three scores.
For the third piece, I'd consider going back to the well with Collin Johnson. The snap counts are a little concerning, but that has helped keep Johnson's salary slightly in check. Johnson is still out-snapping Lavishka Shenault fortunately. Given the likely game script, that's good news as Johnson should see the field often with the number of likely 3-WR sets. Furthermore, Johnson should be able to run right over and around Breon Borders, a former 2017 undrafted free agent who's been thrust into the lineup with Adoree Jackson's absence. Borders has been victimized for 21-of-38 passing for 290 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage. It's also worth noting that there is quite the height differential between Borders who hits the tape at 6-foot-0 and Johnson at 6-foot-6. Don't be surprised if Johnson adds another touchdown to his potential break-through second half.
Another great thing about running a JAX stack is that we can go with either AJ Brown or Corey Davis as a runback. I'll take the approximately 20% savings on the latter if forced to choose. He's been even better than expected according to NextGen Stats:
Corey Davis' performance in Week 13 against the Browns (11 rec, 182 yds, TD) propelled the @Titans receiver to the top of the ranks in Catch Rate Over Expected (CROE).
Adjusting for the level of difficulty of each target, here's the #NFL top 5 in CROE (entering DAL-BAL tonight): pic.twitter.com/RRehFK9txa
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 8, 2020
More simply, Davis has double-digit PPR points in nine of ten games this year. My concern is that this feels like a Derrick Henry week. However, the fact is that Jacksonville has allowed 15 different WRs to finish as a WR24 or better this year. There are going to be points scored in this one and Davis feels like an easy way to get some.
The "Brees Is Not Back Yet" Stack
New Orleans Saints
One of the great things about RotoBaller is the premium chats. And in the NFL DFS chat many commented on some of the aforementioned chalkier stacks. But one participant mentioned a stack that I likely would not have considered this week but I now am. As the participant said, we've seen Taysom Hill's floor as a starting QB, but are we so sure we've seen his ceiling yet? And he's right.
He's only accounted for two TDs a week. The first two weeks of his starting tenure he didn't pass for a single TD but ran for two scores each week. This past week he didn't run for a TD, but he did pass for a pair of TDs. Might we see two of each this week?
It's not as id Hill is likely to be intercepted. The Eagles have a league-low three picks so far this season. On the flip side, one of the few things the Eagles have done well this year is rush the quarterback. They have the third-highest sack rate (8.8%) in the league. When you rush a lot, that leads to a lot of scrambling which plays right into Taysom Hill's wheelhouse. The Eagles are allowing 27.6 rushing yards to quarterbacks, the second-highest in the game. Furthermore, they are allowing the fourth-highest average of 5.52 yards per rushing attempt. Note that both Lamar Jackson AND Daniel Jones each topped 100 rushing yards and had a rushing score against Philly. Given the likelihood of Hill having rushing success against the Eagles, I'll gladly roster him for $1400 less than some of the top options. And imagine if can throw for a couple of TDs like he did last week too?
Because while many have talked about the impact of Hill on Alvin Kamara, few have mentioned the impact on Michael Thomas. But perhaps a little quietly, Thomas has two out of his last three games with 20+ PPR fantasy points. You also might not be aware but Thomas has yet to catch a TD this year either. Obviously, some of that is due to the number of games he missed this year. But let's not forget that Thomas is a player with nine touchdowns each of the previous two years. To say he's overdue for a TD is an understatement. And realize that the Eagles are in the bottom half of the league in preventing fantasy points to WRs as well. Like Hill, the possibility of a ceiling game from Thomas is going very under the radar.
Of course, if Hill is going to pass for multiple touchdowns, Tre'Quan Smith might be the biggest beneficiary. He was the one of the receiving end of Taysom Hill's first career TD pass this past week. Should Smith score again this week, that will be three straight years with at least five touchdowns. Not only did Smith score last week, but he was also heavily targeted seven times last week. He's averaging a little over 8 PPR points a week and at his bargain-basement price of just $3300 on DraftKings and slightly higher $5K on FanDuel, he could be the cornerstone value to this stack. It makes this stack one of the more intriguing week 14 GPP stacks.
