RADIO
My week 12 GPP DFS stacks recommendations are being dedicated to "Brett S." I barely knew Brett, but he was one of the fellow owners in one of my seasonal FFL leagues. However, I am friendly with his brother-in-law, who ironically is the first person I remember ever asking me years ago, "Do you know what DFS is?" Well, Brett passed away this past week due to complications from Covid-19.
Brett's story is a sad one as he was the sole custodian for an autistic child. But despite the challenges that life dealt him, Brett continued to remain steadfast. And I know, we are fortunate that this is the closest person to my family that we have lost due to the pandemic. But it doesn't make it any better.
I don't want to get too gloomy, so all I will say is that like Brett, we DFS players have to remain steadfast despite the challenges a DFS slate can bring. There is always the temptation to go with the chalk picks. But pure chalk rarely wins a GPP, so we need to look at some GPP stacks.
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The "Hmmm. Why Not?" Stack
Indianapolis Colts
With three games on Thursday and two games in the primetime slots, we did not have a whole lot of games from which to choose from and there are a lot of chalky stacks out there. But as I was combing through the games, I was struck by the possibility of the Colts.
I hate recommending "one L" Philip Rivers as he has made up for that with his share of ugly losses. The truth however is that he's been playing much better lately than he did to start the season:
| Yards/game | TDs | FPts/game | |
| Weeks 1-5 | 245.4 | 4 | 11.04 |
| Week 6-11 | 291.2 | 10 | 18.37 |
Rivers is wonderfully affordable this week, priced at $6100 and $6800 on the two sites. Furthermore, this matchup might be too good to avoid. The Titans are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. Opposing WRs facing the Titans have been targeted at the second-highest rate of 63.7 percent of the pass attempts. That has resulted in 17.2 receptions per game for wide receivers versus Tennessee, which is second only to Seattle.
Which allows the suddenly sexy pick of Michael Pittman as an option. Pittman only saw three targets last week, but he turned those into 66 yards and a touchdown. He made a lot of a little, but previous to that he was also seeing a lot, having seen 15 combined targets the previous two weeks. I suspect he will see the volume this week and priced at an efficient $5000/$5700, I will certainly have a few shares of Pittman this week.
Of course, the dangers of going with the bright, shiny object of Pittman can be seen right across the formation with T.Y. Hilton. It was less than two years ago that T.Y. Hilton was coming off of 120-target and 1270 receiving yard season. But we now find him at the bargain bin price of $3900 on DraftKings. He's a little less of a value on FanDuel, but he's still stomach-able at $5400 Yet, Hilton still has five or more targets in seven of nine games this game. Unfortunately, he has yet to score a touchdown this year, but I'm going to take the stance that it, therefore "makes him due". And I will call my shot now and say he does score a TD this weekend.
And while the Colts have been pretty good at keeping WRs in check, A.J. Brown makes for a high-upside nifty runback option with seven touchdowns this year already.
The "Super Cheap" Stack
UPDATE: D.J. Chark has been ruled out for this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Its the circle of life....
Here's the craziest part: Mike Glennon got benched in 2017 for Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky, who got benched this year for Nick Foles, who got benched last year for Gardner Minshew, who got replaced by Luton, who is now benched in favor of Glennon
— Mark Long (@APMarkLong) November 25, 2020
But Glennon is a six-year veteran, who is a competent quarterback. He's not going to pass for 375 yards and three touchdowns, but at $4600 and $6200 respectively on DK and FD, he doesn't need to provide that much to supply value and give us a profit. Cleveland has allowed the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks, giving Glennon a solid matchup in which to work.
Cleveland has been equally bad at preventing fantasy points to WRs and recall that the Browns' last three games have been in rainy conditions with extremely high winds in a couple of them. You can roster D.J. Chark and any other Jacksonville WR on DraftKings for less than $9K and less than $10K on FanDuel. That is phenomenal savings that will come with limited ownership. It allows you to pay for the underpriced but extremely valuable Jarvis Landry.
If you are running a single entry lineup, the Jacksonville stack is not the stack to select. But for those of you going with MME, I would absolutely try to get a few shares of this stack.
The "Stick It Where The Sun Don't Shine Covid-19!" Stack
UPDATE: This game has now been moved to Tuesday night and will not be part of the main slate. Adjust accordingly!
Baltimore Ravens
Covid-19 has run roughshod over our daily lives this year and that includes our DFS enjoyment. From slate diminishing to game cancellation to studs and sleepers being ruled out, I have had it. And in the dark and dizzying crevices of my mind, this stack somehow feels like a way to say enough is enough. Like Twisted Sister, I'm not gonna take it anymore. Go back where you came from Covid-19 and take 2020 with you. You know where you can stick it.
So perhaps the motivation is not the most strategic one. But it's not a bad play either. Well, as of submission time FanDuel has not put this game back on its slate, so it's unplayable on FanDuel. But there's a ton of value to be had on DraftKings with this stack.
Let's start with the super cheap option of Robert Griffin III. RGIII is no Lamar Jackson, but he has shown himself to be quite the viable fill-in. Skip to about the midpoint of this video to see some of what he can do:
The other beauty is that one of RGIII's few games in a Raven uniform was against the Steelers, so he has some familiarity already. But what you also have to love is the chance to roster him at just $4100 or just $100 more than the minimum priced RB! If you want to grab studs like Dalvin Cook and DeAndre Hopkins, starting RGIII gives you a way to do that!
I would also stack RGIII with Mark Andrews. Andrews saw a bit of a mid-season lull but has bounced back nicely the last two weeks with a combined 12 catches on 16 targets for 157 yards and a score. I would expect most to either spend up for Kelce or Waller this week or go much cheaper. Andrews makes for a nice pivot who should be low-owned but gives you high upside as the current number three fantasy football TE who is tied for the second-most TDs by a TE.
You could go with the suddenly very affordable Marquise Brown to complete the stack, but I like Willie Snead more at $400 less than Brown. Snead has actually been the Ravens top WR in November. He has more targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns than Brown in the last four games combined. Snead had five catches for over 100 receiving yards last time the Steelers and Ravens clashed, and I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again.
Of course, the other wonderful part of stacking the Ravens is you can select a Pittsburgh WR as a runback. I'd personally go with Diontae Johnson who brings a high floor, especially if Ravens DB Jimmy Smith remains out. Johnson is coming in hot with 18 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks.
Either way my week 12 GPP stacks will include at least one Baltimore stack just on principle.
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