RADIO
In between my Week 10 and Week 11 GPP DFS stacks recommendations I read one of the alumni magazines that arrive in my mailbox. And I learned that one of my professors had recently passed away. And that got me thinking about the various lectures in grad school that stuck with me. And one of the more memorable ones was my professor that taught an entire lesson couched in Yogi Berra quotes.
It's really not a difficult thing to do, but he did it well. Unfortunately, when I hear Yogi Berra's quotes, I think of Berra's Aflac commercials. But the next thing I usually think of was that particular lecture. So, this week I'm going to try and do something similar. I can promise you it won't be as effective as the lecture, but hopefully, the stacks will help you take down a GPP.
I'm avoiding all the chalky cash stacks. No Pittsburgh, New Orleans, or Los Angeles stacks for example. But with some of the obvious cash stacks out of the way, here are my week 11 GPP stack recommendations.
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The "You Got To Be Careful If You Don't Know Where You're Going, You Might Not Get There" Stack
Baltimore Ravens
There was a lot of talk in Baltimore this off-season about how high they got but just couldn't get to the top of the mountain. And this season they would. However, right now Baltimore looks like less of a contender this year than last year. And part of that is because Lamar Jackson looks more like just another athletic quarterback than an MVP. People are completely avoiding Lamar Jackson.
Which is one reason you need to consider him. When you can get a quarterback of Jackson's level at low ownership, you need to consider that option. Because there are signs that Jackson might turn it around. For example, over the last two weeks, he's completed more than 75% of his passes. And of course, Jackson continues to have a high floor due to his rushing ability, having run for at least 53 yards in seven of his last eight games. And he now gets what is a pretty sweet matchup in Tennessee.
We all know about the Seahawks and Falcons, but the Titans are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game. The Titans have also seen their opponents run more than 68 plays per game and drop back to pass on 61% of them. Since week 1, no signal-caller has thrown for less than 249 yards against the Titans; four have thrown for more than 300 yards. If the reigning MVP is going to get the passing game off the ground (see what I did there?), this might be the week to do so.
Of course, if Lamar's weapons are more effective than they have been, it will help. Because "Hollywood" Brown has been more like 0ff-off-Broadway. But like Jackson, the matchup for Brown is pretty close to ideal. Tennessee has allowed WRs a massive 63.8 percent target share, second only to Seattle. The Titans have been victimized by WRs for a daunting 70 percent completion rate. Brown has been targeted half a dozen or more times in seven of nine games and no WR who was targeted five or more ties has finished with less than 8.8 PPR points against Tennessee. Given that Brown is priced no higher than a WR2, he makes a nice pairing with Jackson.
Mark Andrews remains one of the better fantasy TEs in the league. He faced the second-best defense against TEs last week and still managed to haul in seven passes for 61 yards. Tennessee meanwhile has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs per game. Much of that is the inability of the Titans to keep tight ends out of the end zone. Tights ends have seen a league-high 18 targets in the red zone against Tennessee. I'll remind you that Andrews had ten touchdowns last year. You can draw your own conclusions, but I will also remind you that Ravens TE Nick Boyle is out for the season, freeing up another two targets per game.
The "Nickel Ain't Worth A Dime Anymore" Stack
Washington Football Team
If you're counting nickels and looking for a cheaper stack, you might want to consider the Washington Football Team this week.
I had Smith in this space last week and I'm going back to the well. In the last two weeks, Smith has racked up 715 passing yards total. Could a 400-yard game out of Smith be far behind? What I like about Smith is that his aDOT was nearly three yards higher than the previous week and he continues to get better each week. And that's good given that Smith's volume continues to rise. Washington is averaging over 37 pass attempts per game and when you blend that with Bengals being burned for the second-highest touchdown rate percentage (6.46%), I'm liking Smith's chances this week. Because the Bengals have definitely had some issues with quarterbacks as they have given up two or more touchdowns to quarterbacks each week since week 2. I think Smith gets a pair of touchdowns too, if not more, and at this price that's a nice profit.
Once again, Smith's success will likely be tied to Terry McLaurin, who is having quite a good year.
Everyone knows Terry McLaurin has taken that 2nd year jump
Rookie year: 93 targets, 58 receptions, 919 yards, 7 TDs
This year 16 game pace? 154 targets, 114 receptions, 1581 yards, 7 TDs
That isnt just a 2nd year jump, that's a SUPERSTAR level jump. ?? pic.twitter.com/KpdklU38bj
— Fantasy Scouts 24/7 (@FFBallAllDay) November 14, 2020
McLaurin is coming off another strong game, with seven catches and 122 total yards. For those not paying attention, that is at least 19 PPR points in each of the last three games, all of which Smith has been the quarterback. And McLaurin also has at least 11 PPR points in eight of nine games. He's Washington's primary weapon; he has a league-high 41.6% of the team's air yards. And against this Bengals, he could have another huge day. Cincinnati has allowed opposing WRs an eighth-worst in the league 1.93 PPR points per target. They've also allowed 11 WRs to finish with 15+ PPR points.
As mentioned last week, Washington rarely allows just one cornerback to shadow McLaurin. Even if Cincinnati chooses to have William Jackson shadow McLaurin, Jackson has seen 44 passes against him with receivers having caught 25 of them for 332 yards and three touchdowns. McLaurin should once again be worth every penny.
Meanwhile, Logan Thomas is so cheap, you need to consider him especially given the match-up. Seven different TEs have had double-digit PPR games against Cincinnati this year. Perhaps it might be the whopping 8.4 targets per game the Bengals are giving up to opposing tight ends. In addition to that second-worst ranking, the Bengals are allowing 12+ yards per receptions, a touchdown every 12.7 targets, and 1.87 PPR points per target.
The beauty of this stack is not only will you have plenty of salary to spend elsewhere, but you can also go with any of the three Bengal WR options you fancy as a runback.
The "Nobody Goes There Anymore, It's Too Crowded" Stack
Dallas Cowboys
This Berra quote might have been a better description of the Cowboys' offense early in the season--there were so many weapons in Dallas that not a single one of them was a reliable weapon. Of course, when Dak Prescott went down, nobody wanted to go anywhere near Dallas players. However, the match-up alone is a reason to consider stacking Cowboys. Minnesota has allowed five quarterbacks to post 20+ fantasy points against them this season. Quarterbacks have passed for the eighth-most yards per attempt (7.64) and the seventh-highest touchdown rate (5.79%) against Minnesota. Throw in the fact that the Vikes have seen a ginormous 68.6 plays per game against them and I think Dalton should be able to do enough to outproduce his salary.
If Dalton can get the Dallas offense moving, his WRs could have a decent day. We knew Cooper was going to see a drop in production when Prescott went out, but he's still managed to finish as a top 40 WR or better in seven of nine games. And I alluded to how pliable the Vikings Defense has been against quarterbacks, but they've been even softer against WRs. Minnesota has allowed more fantasy points per target (2.20) than any other team. Minnesota has allowed the most WR touchdowns this year, allowing a TD every 10.3 targets. Cooper should be able to add to his touchdown total this week, which will get him closer to the 8 TDs he had last year.
I like Cooper, but if I had to choose, I might prefer to go with CeeDee Lamb, who brings with him both a decent floor and a high ceiling. Despite the quarterback carousel in Dallas, Lamb has still seen at least five targets in every game. That includes seven targets in his last game against Pittsburgh that resulted in 71 yards and a score. He's a little more valuable on DraftKings as Lamb has also totaled at least four catches in eight of nine games. Lamb will likely be shadowed by fellow rookie Jeff Gladney, who has allowed 506 yards and five touchdowns on 57 targets this year.
One of my favorite parts about a Dallas stack however is the ability to choose Jefferson as a runback. Because as we know, the Dallas secondary has not exactly been blanketing. They've seen 16 opposing WR touchdowns this year, which ranks right behind the Vikings ironically. These are the only two teams that have allowed more than a baker's dozen worth of TDs to WRs. Because Jefferson is coming off another strong game, catching eight of 10 targets for 135 yards. That is now his fourth 100-yard game this season. Do you know what other rookie WR had four 100-yard games? Randy Moss. Perhaps there is some mystical Minnesota connection there. But let's cut to the bottom line. Many consider Moss to have had the best rookie season for a WR in the last 25 years. And he had those four 100-yard games that season. Jefferson has four already. Is it really unthinkable that he tops Moss with five?
Either way, Jefferson will an integral part of my week 11 GPP stacks.
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