RADIO
The Divisional Round of the playoffs is upon us. That means the return of fantasy heroes Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes to our player pool, suddenly making the quarterbacks on this slate look far better than last week. We also get the return to action of Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo, which is fun, but less exciting. Sadly this is our last slate of more than two games, meaning things will get even tougher from here on in.
Initially, this week opened with four totals over 45 points. The Minnesota San Francisco game has slid below that number now, but with 75% of the games on the slate at 47 points or above we could be in for a wild weekend of football.
Let's take a look at the DFS cash game value plays for Divisional weekend of the 2019 NFL season. This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, usually when you look at value plays for GPP you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets or carries.
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Quarterback DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. SEA | DK: $6,500, FD: $8,500
This is really as simple as do you want Aaron Rodgers as the fifth most expensive quarterback on a week where only one set of numbers stands out from the crowd? The only defense allowing over 20 fantasy points per game to QB is the Houston Texans, and Patrick Mahomes cost $7,500 because of it. Instead, you can get Rodgers against a defense allowing over 18 FPPG and who at times allowed Josh McCown to move the ball on them last week. The strength of this Seahawks team when it comes to pass defense is down the middle of their defense, and therefore, I think we see Rodgers attacking them on the perimeter.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. MIN | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,300
The Vikings were very impressive last week defensively, but this seems too cheap for Garoppolo. The 49ers offense has not always been the most explosive, but Garoppolo has had his games. At this price you only need him to be serviceable and you will see a three times ROI. I am not in love with this option, but if I can save $900 to use at another position without major risk then why not?
Running Back DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Damien Williams, KC vs. HOU | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,200
This game could be a battle of the running backs, with both defenses having their issues against the run. Last week Devin Singletary put up over 130 combined yards on the Texans, and Williams is the perfect player to exploit that this week. In his last five games, he has rushed for over 100 yards twice and over 60 yards a further two times. Down the stretch, the role in this offense has been his, and while there is concern that LeSean McCoy could suddenly reappear, you really need to take this gamble against a defense allowing over 20 FPPG to lead backs.
Carlos Hyde, HOU @ KC | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,600
The Texans showed the blueprint for winning this game earlier in the season. Control the clock is the key, and regardless of what the analytics say the running game is a great way to do that. In the previous matchup, Hyde carried 26 times for 116 yards and a touchdown as the Texans controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes. It is not always the prettiest having Hyde in your fantasy team, but he should be a solid option this week facing a team allowing over 20 FPPG to lead backs this season.
Marshawn Lynch, SEA @ GB | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,700
Below the $5,000 mark this week you are essentially gambling, and I will gamble on Lynch against a defense that has had issues against the run. This will be his third game of the season and he should be starting to feel in the groove. This will be a cold-weather game in Green Bay and running the ball usually plays a big role in those types of contests. The Packers Defense has allowed over 18 FPPG to lead backs and I was encouraged to see Lynch get three targets last week.
Wide Receiver DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Deebo Samuel, SF vs. MIN | DK: $5,200, FD: $7,100
I am expecting that we see Emmanuel Sanders pull the main coverage in this game, leaving Samuels with a matchup he can exploit. The Vikings Defense was solid last week but they have had a tendency to struggle at times this season, and Samuels has the talent to exploit that.
Will Fuller, HOU @ KC | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,800
Fuller really is the x-factor for this offense, especially if a defense does not have two lockdown corners. His speed makes it very hard for a team to completely double-teaming DeAndre Hopkins because they risk leaving a defender one-on-one with the speedy Fuller. However, my expectations are that the Chiefs will focus their attention on Hopkins, leaving Fuller to go wild on the other side of the field.
Marquise Brown, BAL vs. TEN | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,500
Matching up to the Ravens is always an issue and Brown is part of the problem. If you roll a coverage guy inside to check Mark Andrews then Brown can beat you on the outside. Brown will likely draw Adoree Jackson, which is not ideal, but also not the hardest of assignments. My reading of this game is that the Titans will sell out to stop the tight ends and the running game, which should open Brown to have a big game against a defense allowing 18 FPPG to lead receivers.
Tight End DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Jacob Hollister, SEA @ GB | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,800
The game in Green Bay appears to have the most elements to exploit for tight ends. Both teams are fine but not great against the position, and both leading tight ends are cheaper than the other top tight ends. Hollister has been a reasonably big part of this offense this season averaging 6.1 targets per game over the last nine weeks. If you can work out the money for Andrews, Kelce or Kittle then that is the way to go, but if you need to be cheaper at the tight end position then look for Hollister.
