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Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 6 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.
As fans, we had our emotions played with in Week 5 a bit. There were several COVID-19 cases that made their way around the league, but in turn, we only had one game moved. In our games, Arizona was ready to hit the over themselves, but they pulled back and took it easy on the Jets. Indianapolis was missing one of their best defensive players and completely dropped the ball on offense, killing any shot at taking down the Browns. Atlanta and Carolina gave us a push on the 1H total; it puzzles me how the Atlanta offense has struggled as much as they have.
- Week 5: 1-1-1 (33%, -.15u)
- 2019 Season: 8-6-1 (53%, +2.22u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Green Bay Packers (-1, -108) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
O/U: 55
The Packers are on fire for Aaron Rodgers' tour to silence any doubters, reeling off four straight wins, by an average of 12.7 ppg, before hitting their Week 5 bye. Over 1,200 yards with 13 touchdowns and no blemishes, Rodgers is going for a championship and might bag an MVP award on the way. It's looking like Davante Adams will suit up this week, which is an instant boost to the offense, but what really makes the Packers tick is their run game which averages over 150 ypg but just 128 in their two road games. If Aaron Jones is producing, so is this offense. Defensively, things could be better, as they rank 25th in both rushing and passing DVOA. They're getting healthy, but their secondary will have their hands full with a talented Bucs receiving corps.
The Tom-pa Bay Bucs are in a three-way tie for the NFC South but they seem to have yet to hit their stride. Tom Brady's offense averages 365 ypg and 28 ppg, and that's without Chris Godwin (hamstring) for three games. They've posted two strong wins at home already, and with Godwin likely returning, we'll see these Bucs back to full strength. Defensively, Tampa houses one of the best units in the NFL, ranking Top 5 in both passing and rushing DVOA. They've held opponents to under 275 passing yards three times in five games, including not allowing more than 87 yards rushing once. One issue they'll need to correct is taking penalties, with which they've been one of the league's worst, averaging over 80 yards of penalties per game.
Tampa Bay opened as three-point favorites and the line has shifted to favor the Packers by a point. Green Bay coming off a bye gives them the rest advantage but Tampa Bay likely getting their stars healthy and back at home, it's interesting to see the line shift towards the Packers. They have just one turnover this season, but with Tampa's stout defensive unit, I see that changing and the Bucs offense putting a ton of pressure on GB with their full arsenal of offensive weapons and picking up their fourth win.
Pick: Tampa Bay ML +100 (Foxbet) 1 Unit
Detroit Lions (-3.5, -180) at Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U: 54.5
The Detroit Lions are a mess, but they somehow still make every week interesting. The passing game hasn't been anything to write home about, but Matthew Stafford has weapons in Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and T.J. Hockenson. All three are healthy, and while none of have exactly taken over, they have a juicy matchup against the Jaguars. The running game is a total disaster, which doesn't help matters for the offense, but I think Matt Patricia is fine with throwing it all over the yard (averaging 34 attempts per game). One benefit for the unit is their ability to get to the red zone, averaging 4.5 trips per game. They just need to work on cashing in for a touchdown at more than a 55% clip.
The Jaguars Defense is one of the league's worst, ranking 32nd in passing DVOA and 20th against the run. Losers of four straight, Jacksonville has surrendered at least 123 yards on the ground in all of those games, and have allowed 991 total yards over their last two. Not a good recent performance. However, they do seem to have a bend but don't break approach, allowing around 54% of opponent's red zone trips to end in a touchdown.
It's not fun gambling on the Lions, especially when they struggle with any amount of consistency. However, with as bad as the Jags' defense is, I see Stafford and co. being able to take the top off and make some noise in Week 6.
Pick: Detroit Team Total Over 28.5 (-115, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
O/U: 55
The Cardinals came into this season with some lofty expectations and despite a bad loss to the aforementioned Lions, things could be worse. Kyler Murray has done well leading the offense, averaging over 395 ypg. However, his six interceptions make you raise your eye brow a bit. He’s made up for it with the five rushing scores, complementing Kenyan Drake quite nicely. DeAndre Hopkins has maintained his role as a reception receptacle, hailing in 45 balls but only scoring twice thus far. Utilizing their weapons better will be key moving forward. Defensively, they are going to have their hands full, especially in the run game, where they’ve allowed over 90 yards in every game thus far. They’ve yet to allow over 276 yards passing, but they also haven’t faced an offense of this caliber.
Dallas might be missing Dak Prescott, but it's hard to see this offense skipping a beat. No, Andy Dalton isn't a Super Bowl winning signal caller, but with Ezekiel Elliott behind him, and Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup to throw to, this offense is surely just as potent. They've averaged 38 ppg at home thus far and it's not like Arizona is some juggernaut who will stop them, especially after losing pass-rush extraordinar Chandler Jones (bicep) for the season. Defensively is where some issues lie, as the Cowboys can’t stop anyone, allowing 34 or more points in each of the last four games, including last week’s gross affair with the Giants.
I get it. Without Dak Prescott, the Cowboys shouldn't be favored. He was their guy. I'm in no way saying Dalton is anything special, but the guy deserves some respect, especially with the weapons he now has to throw to. With Zeke behind him and those threats in the passing game, it's hard to imagine Dallas skipping any major beats. Trust in the talent on Dallas and don't doubt them in Jerry's World.
Pick: Dallas ML (+106, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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