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Juan Carlos Blanco's NBA DFS prop picks for No House Advantage Pick 'Em contests and the Friday, February 10 slate. Use his NBA prop picks to win money.
We have a massive 11-game slate on tap Friday night, and with seven games sporting projected totals of 230 points or higher as of late Thursday night, there should be plenty of compelling individual performances forthcoming.
If you're looking to get in on the excitement, there are plenty of player prop contests offered by our friends at No House Advantage! These contests range from just $5-$20 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $50,000!
Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Friday's Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.
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How to Play on No House Advantage
The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.
For example, if you think the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have some success as a facilitator Friday in what should be a high-scoring contest against the Trail Blazers, you'd go with the Over on his 4.5 assists as one of your High Confidence picks. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.
Once all of Friday's games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your Friday slate picks.
Higher Confidence Picks - Friday, February 10
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (at POR) Over 5.5 assists
SGA is averaging a relatively modest 5.6 assists per contest this season due to his heavy offensive workload. However, he's seen a slight uptick in his facilitator role of late, recording between six and eight dimes in nine of his last 13 contests.
Gilgeous-Alexander has one six-assist tally this season against the Trail Blazers as well, and Portland checks in allowing an NBA-high 26.7 assists per home game.
Additionally, the Blazers have allowed an NBA-high 10.6 assists per contest to point guards specifically and the third-highest shooting percentage (48.6) of any team on its home floor.
Alperen Sengun (at MIA) Under 34.5 points + rebounds + assists
The Under on a player prop isn't always a high-confidence pick, but Sengun's case Friday qualifies as an exception.
The emerging big certainly has no shortage of talent, but he's stuck in one of the absolute toughest matchups for centers in either conference. The Heat has allowed the lowest offensive efficiency rating to centers (26.0), along with second-fewest points (19.0), fewest rebounds (12.6) and assists (2.8) per game to the position.
Sengun is averaging 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, impressive numbers that nevertheless leave him way short of this prop without even considering the matchup.
Additionally, the big man's production has been even a tick lower on the road with averages 14.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists.
Jayson Tatum (vs CHA) Over 4.5 assists
Tatum's status will need monitoring leading up to tip-off, as he's questionable with an illness. However, assuming he suits up, he should be in an excellent position to surpass this benchmark.
Tatum boasts a massive 35.9 percent usage rate with Jaylen Brown (face) off the floor and is averaging 5.1 assists per 36 minutes in that split as well. Then, Charlotte is giving up a league-high 5.2 assists to power forwards in the last 15 games.
When considering an assists prop, it's always worth reviewing the shooting percentage allowed by the opponent. Charlotte is conceding elevated 48.6 percent shooting on the road, including 49.2 percent in the last three games.
Bojan Bogdanovic (vs. SAS) Over 2.5 made three-pointers
Bogdanovic is averaging exactly 2.5 made threes per contest, but he's putting up 2.9 made treys per game on his home floor. The talented forward has made at least a trio of threes on 22 occasions overall this season, with 13 of those instances coming at home.
The Spurs make for good targets for this prop, as San Antonio is surrendering NBA-high 42.0 percent three-point shooting on the road.
Bogdanovic is also sporting the second-highest three-point shooting percentage of his career (41.6) and boasts a 43.6 percent success rate from behind the arc in the last 15.
Chris Paul (at IND) Over 8.5 assists
Paul dished out eight dimes in Thursday's loss to the Hawks, but he could be in line for a better performance in that department Friday with Devin Booker slated to get back on the floor after sitting out against Atlanta for groin injury management.
That will give Paul another talented scorer to feed, and he's also facing a Pacers squad that's allowing the fourth-most assists per game (26.3) overall. Indiana is also giving up elevated 47.4 percent shooting.
Paul has recorded at least nine assists on 20 occasions already and is clocking 9.3 assists per road contest overall.
Lower Confidence Picks - Friday, February 10
Bam Adebayo (vs. HOU) Under 40.5 points + rebounds + assists
Adebayo is averaging 22.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists over the last 16 games, numbers that leave him a good bit below this prop despite how impressive they are.
The big man has enjoyed some spike performances in recent contests, yet he has a tougher positional matchup Friday than it might seem on the surface.
Houston has been relatively effective against centers despite its defensive issues overall, ranking just inside the top half of the league in offensive efficiency rating allowed to the position and giving up just 21.4 points, 13.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game to fives on the season.
Julius Randle (vs. PHI) Over 45.5 points + rebounds + assists
The 76ers are surrendering the 11th-highest offensive efficiency rating to power forwards (26.7), and they yielded 47 points, rebounds and assists to Randle in one of three previous meetings this season.
Randle has eclipsed this prop in six of his last 13 games alone, falling just short in a seventh during that span with 44.
Deandre Ayton (at IND) Over 11.5 rebounds
Ayton has recorded at least 12 rebounds in 18 games this season, with four of those occasions coming in the last seven games.
The Pacers have allowed the third-most rebounds per game to centers (16.2), along with the third-most rebounds per game overall (53.8). Phoenix is also allowing stingy 43.4 percent shooting over the last three games as well, which should enhance Ayton's opportunities on the defensive glass.
Domantas Sabonis (vs. DAL) Under 44.5 points + rebounds + assists
Sabonis is averaging 18.7 points, 12.2 rebounds and 7.0 assists on the season, but he's actually been less productive as both a scorer (17.9) and rebounder (11.9) at home.
The Mavericks are also a generally tough matchup for centers -- they've allowed the third-lowest offensive efficiency rating (29.9) and the fourth-fewest points per game (20.3) to the position.
Anthony Edwards (at MEM) Under 3.5 three-pointers made
Edwards is averaging 2.8 made threes per road contest, and he's got a stiff challenge in front of him Friday.
The Grizzlies are allowing NBA-low 43.3 percent shooting at home, including 32.4 percent from three-point range. Memphis has also held Edwards to three made threes or fewer in each of the first three meetings this season, furthering the case for the Under.
Additionally, Edwards has been under four made threes in 43 of 58 games, certainly upping the odds he falls short again here.
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