The Most Overvalued Fantasy Football Player from Every NFC Team (2024)

August 16, 2024

Joey Pollizze looks at the biggest overvalued fantasy football players for every NFC team in 2024. Fantasy managers should avoid these players in drafts.

Fantasy football is all about value. If you pick a player with an RB19 predraft ADP and he finishes as the RB10, that is great value. On the other end of that, if you take a player as the RB7 and he finishes as the RB22, that will severely hurt your team during the year. 

It's hard to know before the season which players are undervalued and overvalued. However, there are signs that point to certain players being drafted too high in drafts this year. 

So, let's take a look at the most overvalued fantasy football players from each NFC team heading into the 2024 fantasy football season. You can also see my article on the most undervalued fantasy football players.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players in NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: None

Surprisingly, the Cowboys don't have any players who are currently overvalued in drafts. Dak Prescott is going as the QB8 after finishing as the QB3 a season ago. CeeDee Lamb going as the WR1 makes sense following his overall WR1 finish in 2023. Jake Ferguson is a sleeper option at the tight-end position, and both Ezekiel Elliott (118.5) and Brandin Cooks (153.4) are going outside the top 115 in drafts. 

On an offense that ranked first in points scored last year, four of those five players -- excluding Lamb -- might be undervalued heading into the season. That's why no one in Dallas is currently overvalued in fantasy. 

Philadelphia Eagles: A.J. Brown, WR

There's no doubt that Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown is one of the best playmakers in the league. Since arriving in Philadelphia, he has totaled at least 88 catches and 1,400 yards in back-to-back seasons. In both years, he also finished as the WR6 (2022) and WR5 (2023) in PPR formats. However, he is going too high in drafts at his 9.7 ADP.

While he will likely lead the team in catches and receiving yards, the Eagles wideout does have some rough fantasy stretches. From Week 11 to Week 18 last year, the 27-year-old averaged just 10.8 PPR fantasy points per game. On top of that, the addition of Saquon Barkley could take away a few targets per game in 2024. Brown is definitely an elite wide receiver in the league, but drafting him at the back end of Round 1 might be a mistake. 

Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin, WR

Rookie quarterbacks don't often support WR1s or WR2s in fantasy. It doesn't happen a ton, and it likely won't happen with Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin in 2024. McLaurin has dealt with some inconsistent quarterback play over his career and has still finished as a top-30 option in the first five years of his career.

Terry Mclaurin says he has the ability to be a Top 5 receiver this year he just needs the correct quarterback play.

via @thepivot #Commanders #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/Q4jgM87xq0

— 𝒆𝒍𝒊… (@CMNDERS) July 1, 2024

However, this could be the first year we don't see him finishing that high. Jayden Daniels is his quarterback this season, meaning we could see some inconsistent weeks from the one-time Pro Bowler. McLaurin is going later than usual in drafts currently as the WR33, but there are better options going after him like Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, and Marquise Brown -- all of whom have the upside to finish as a WR2 in 2024. 

New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR

Putting New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers on this list pains me because he is a generational prospect. He just caught 89 passes for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns in his final college season at LSU and was rewarded by being drafted sixth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. 

But I am afraid about his situation in New York. For starters, having Daniel Jones as his quarterback could hurt his fantasy value a bit. Nabers finished with a 90.8 grade on PFF versus man coverage in 2023. However, Jones struggled versus man coverage last year, completing just 47.3% of his passes. While having the rookie could help with those numbers, he just might be too much of a risk at his 38.7 ADP. Taking him over Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and DeVonta Smith makes him overvalued heading into the year. 

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players in NFC North

Detroit Lions: Sam LaPorta, TE

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta is the best option at the position in 2024. There's no arguing against it, either. He finished as the TE1 in his rookie season after totaling 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Nonetheless, going in the middle of the second round is just too high for any tight end. LaPorta only scored nine more PPR fantasy points than the TE2, Evan Engram, in 2023. Yet, Engram is going as the TE8 in the sixth round of drafts this year. Taking the Lions tight end also means you are passing on a high-end running back or wide receiver early in the draft. It's just not worth it. 

Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson, WR

Coming out of the 2022 NFL Draft, Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson had a ton of hype surrounding him. He was set to become the WR1 for an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. However, injuries hurt his potential in Year 1 and also set him back a bit last season. 

Over his first two NFL seasons, Watson has played in just 23 games while missing 11 contests due to a nagging hamstring injury. Even when he was healthy last year, though, he struggled to put up consistent numbers. In seven of his nine games, he scored less than 12 PPR fantasy points. Now, entering Year 3, he's too much of a risk at his 100.9 ADP. He might not even be the WR1 on his team with the emergence of Jayden Reed. 

Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR

There are question marks about the Minnesota Vikings' quarterback play heading into the season. With Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy under center in 2024, it might be hard to rely on wideout Jordan Addison in 2024. 

.@Vikings answer back! On 3rd and 10, Kirk tosses a beauty to @Espn_Jordan who runs it in for the TD. #MINvsPHI on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/eMkDgB2kEz pic.twitter.com/9ZR5Mjdb9m

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2023

Addison had a great rookie season, catching 70 passes for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns. But that was with Justin Jefferson missing most of the year and having Kirk Cousins as his quarterback for the first eight weeks. In nine games without Cousins from Week 9 to Week 18, the former USC product only averaged 10.5 PPR fantasy points. Now, add a healthy Jefferson to the equation and the young wideout is a risky pick at his 72 ADP. 

Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR

Rookie quarterbacks have a hard time supporting multiple wide receivers in fantasy. With DJ Moore and Keenan Allen locked into the top-2 wide receiver spots in Chicago, it would be a shock to see rookie wideout Rome Odunze finish anywhere near the top 30. 

Odunze will almost definitely start the year as the Bears' WR3, which certainly hurts his fantasy value in 2024. So, going as the WR32 in drafts might be too high for a rookie who is the third option with a rookie quarterback under center. What's even wilder is that the former Washington star is going just one pick after Christian Kirk in drafts -- who is the WR1 in Jacksonville. That makes him extremely overvalued heading into drafts. 

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players in NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: None

None of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers players are currently overvalued in drafts. Baker Mayfield is going outside the top 150 in drafts after finishing as the QB10 last year. Rachaad White is going as the RB13 following his RB4 finish in 2023, and both Mike Evans (29.2) and Godwin (74.3) are safer options at their respective ADPs. 

New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave, WR

It makes very little sense why New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave is going as high as he is in drafts. Olave has never finished as a WR1 in fantasy over his career, but he will enter drafts with a WR12 ADP. 

Why is Chris Olave being drafted as a wide receiver one in fantasy football?

Last year he was a borderline top twenty wide receiver in fantasy and nothing about the Saints offense has significantly changed except their new OC in Klint Kubiak coming from San Fransisco. Could he… pic.twitter.com/y9pPpZkyaA

— Hutchinson Brown (@hutchinsonb_ff) June 15, 2024

Olave is extremely talented and has finished with over 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. But like Nabers, having Derek Carr as his quarterback will likely limit his fantasy upside. Carr ranked 26th in accuracy rating (6.2) last season while ranking 19th in yards per pass attempt (7.1). That poor quarterback play might be why the young wideout fails to finish inside the top 12 in 2024. 

Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, WR

There's no doubt that Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London will have a career year with Kirk Cousins under center in 2024. It also won't be hard for that to happen, as London has failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark in each of his first two years in the league. However, fantasy managers are too high on the young wideout entering the season.

Of course, Cousins' track record suggests the 22-year-old could finish as a WR1 in 2024. But be careful drafting him as the WR11 because there is a lot that London needs to improve on before putting up monster numbers. His target separation (1.33), route win rate (43.6%), and win rate versus man coverage (29.8%) all ranked 70th or lower at the position in 2023. If he wants to become a surefire WR1 option for the veteran quarterback this season, he will need to be better as a route runner. 

Carolina Panthers: Xavier Legette, WR

The Carolina Panthers selected wide receiver Xavier Legette in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Most fantasy managers want to target rookie first-round wide receivers in drafts. However, we might need to pump the brakes on Legette -- even at his 131.4 ADP. 

For starters, it took Legette a couple of years to break out in college after he combined for just 42 catches and 423 yards in his first four college seasons. Then, he totaled 71 catches for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns in his final season in 2023. Now, he joins a Panthers offense that struggled last year and just traded for Diontae Johnson. That means the rookie might start the season as the team's WR3 or WR4. That makes him overvalued in drafts, especially with Jerry Jeudy, Rashid Shaheed, and Cooks all going later than him. 

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players in NFC West

San Francisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel Sr. (for now), WR

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel might be the most exciting player to watch in the NFL. The way he cuts, breaks tackles, and uses his speed is just electrifying. But his 32.6 ADP makes him overvalued.

There's no denying how special Samuel is on the field. However, injuries continue to play a factor in his career. He has never played a full season in his five-year NFL career, and there are just too many mouths to feed in San Francisco's offense. If Brandon Aiyuk does get traded, the 28-year-old would then likely become a great pick in the third round. But for now, on an offense that features Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, he is going a bit too high in drafts.  

Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Lockett, WR

Time is ticking for Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett. Lockett will turn 32 years old in September and age is definitely catching up to him after he put together his worst season since 2017. The veteran totaled 79 catches for 894 yards and five touchdowns last year. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba also figures to be much more involved in his second year, likely taking away targets from Lockett in the passing game. That makes the nine-year veteran an avoid at his 122.2 ADP. 

Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua, WR

After what Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua did as a rookie in 2023, it makes sense why he is going as the WR7 in drafts this year. Nacua just put together the best rookie season by a wide receiver following his 105-catch, 1,486-yard, and six-touchdown season. He also finished as the WR4 in PPR formats. 

However, with Cooper Kupp fully healthy entering the season, Nacua might not live up to his 10.4 ADP. The two wideouts should almost evenly split WR1 targets. From Week 12 to Week 17 last year, Nacua averaged 8.5 targets per game while Kupp averaged 8.2 targets. There is a path where both playmakers put up big numbers this season, but operating as a 1A/1B situation on offense could hurt the former BYU star in fantasy. 

Arizona Cardinals: Trey Benson, RB

Arizona Cardinals running back Trey Benson's time will come. The Cardinals drafted him in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft and Benson has the skill set to be a great NFL back one day. But in his first year, look for him to take a backseat in Arizona's offense. 

James Conner is still with the team, and he should see most of the Cardinals' backfield touches. Benson will surely see some touches here and there in Year 1. However, this is Conner's backfield in 2024. The veteran has never played a full season in his career, so the rookie does have some appeal as a handcuff. The former Florida State product, though, will not have standalone value this year as long as the 29-year-old is healthy. That's why he isn't worth drafting at his 106.4 ADP. 

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