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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/5/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
I hope you got your brooms out to sweep all that money out from under your pillow on Thursday morning. A few of the games were a bit ugly, but we don't ask questions of how a game cashes, just that it does. The only one that scared me was the Samsung/LG over, but thankfully the Twins took matters into their own hands and cashed it themselves. Before we proceed, I must say that I appreciate the love that you have given on Twitter. I'll say it time and time again, I'm not an expert, but I'm learning everyday and love to have you along the little "KBO train" we have going.
- Thursday, June 4: 3-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 50-17
For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Yes, I've had success but I'm not getting out of my means for that exact reason. This is still such a new league to all of us and we need to make sure we look at value not just dollar signs.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Friday, June 5th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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LG Twins at Kiwoom Heroes (-175)
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
LG: Chan-kyu Im (2-1, 4.43 ERA)
Kiwoom: Won-tae Choi (1-2, 3.67 ERA)
The LG Twins were able to salvage the Samsung series by winning 11-0 and taking at least one game in the series. Considering they had 28 hits over the last two days, it wasn't the lineup's fault they lost the series. Catcher Kang-nam Yoo was the big dog, collecting five hits, including two homers and six RBI. They're hitting .296 as a team and have reached the 90 extra-base hit plateau already. After back-to-back tilts against a southpaw, the Twins get to face off against a righty, with whom they hit .296 against.
Chan-kyu Im has been one of the more consistent starters in theKBO. He might not have these outstanding peripherals, but he's shown consistency across each start, with his most recent start being his worst. Through 22.1 innings, he's allowed 15 runs (just 11 earned), just four extra-base hits, and has a 23/6 K/BB. The 1.43 WHIP is consistent with his 2019 total, but the .357 BABIP against and a 55.6 LOB % are due for positive regression, as evidenced by the 2.96 FIP.
Kiwoom is one of the hotter teams in the league, winning five of their last six, including the recent sweep of Hanwha. The Heroes have a +31 run differential after scoring 55 runs in that span. Byung-ho Park, Dong-won Park, and Byung-woo Jeon have been the major run producers in the lineup, while guys like Jung-hoo Lee have an eight-game hitting streak to pace things in front of them. This offense is starting to find its groove after really struggling to begin the year.
Won-tae Choi toes the rubber Friday and he looks to take a step up from his average start to 2020. He's surrendered 11 earned runs in 27 innings and have just one start where he's allowed more than two runs. The 23-year-old has a 20/6 K/BB with those six walks coming in just two outings. He's got a 3.29 FIP and a .302 BABIP against, but he's struggled a touch at home, going 16 innings, allowing 11 runs, compared to just three in 11 innings on the road.
I think this game will come down to the later innings, which means bullpens. LG bullpen houses the best ERA in the KBO (which can be misleading, but their bullpen is actually good) and got some nice rest on Thursday. Sure, Kiwoom's bats have been hot, but LG is no slouch either . After getting two lefties in a row, I like the Twins to come out ready to attack the right-hander and start the series off strong.
Pick: LG ML +142 (Fanduel Sportsbook)
Kia Tigers at Doosan Bears (-122)
O/U: 11
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Min-woo Lee (3-0, 3.23 ERA)
Doosan: Young-ha Lee (1-2, 5.14 ERA)
Kia has won four of their last six and brought their bats during. They outscored LG and Lotte at home 40-32 and are now tied for fourth in the standings. The lineup isn't exaclty the youngest but they can still hit with the best of them. Sun-bin Kim, Min-sang Yoo, Hyung-woo Choi, and Ji-wan Na are all over 30 years old and hitting at least .286 with double-digit RBI. Then there's Preston Tucker who has made the KBO his own slashing .336/.398/.645 with eight homers and 29 RBI.
In what seems to be his first season as a full-time starter, Min-woo Lee has been fantastic. After giving up four runs in his first start May 7, the 27-year-old hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start and earned a quality start in each of his three outings. He's got a career-low 1.11 WHIP which hints for some regression, but the 3.30 FIP says he's been about as good as his numbers say. Lee has yet to serve up a home run and has a 23/11 K/BB, so a start in a pitcher's park gives him a good shot to continue that trend.
Doosan got just three games on the road before returning home, and it's hard to deny they love being the visitors after plating 32 runs in three games. However, as hosts this season, they average just 4.6 runs per game and have averaged almost a run less (3.8) over their last six home games. These home and road splits are hard to ignore as the Bears hit just .241 at home, compared to .344 on the road; that's an eye-opening difference. While Jose Fernandez still hits .405 at home, other studs like Jae-il Oh, and Jae-hwan Kim, and Joo-hwan Choi have substantially lower home averages.
Bears starter Young-ha Lee has really struggled with command and getting hit around through his first five starts. His first start was his best, but since then he's allowed 15 of his 16 earned runs and given up 27 of his 32 hits. At just 22, I'm surprised by the command struggles but they're not new, as he's walked at least 54 in each of the last two seasons and has a 17/19 K/BB in 2020. Sure, he went 17-4 last year with a 3.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP but he never had an ERA below 5.28 before that. Lee has made two home starts this season and through 55 plate appearances opponents are batting .319 against him.
Doosan is just such a different team at home than on the road. Some may look at last year's numbers and say oh the Bears have the pitching advantage but I think differently. Min-woo Lee is the better pitcher in this situation and given Doosan's struggles at Jamsil Stadium, I think Kia is able to attack the Doosan righty in the first half.
Pick: Kia First 5 Innings ML -105 (Draftkings Sportsbook)
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