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Dom Petrillo's 2020 fantasy football value analysis of Packers rookie quarterback Jordan Love. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and top dynasty QB target?
Hours before the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday, Aaron Rodgers told Pat McAfee on radio that the Packers have not taken a skill position player in 15 years. He said he would be happy with any skill player at this point. Well, he got his wish, sort of. Instead of taking a player to help the 36-year old Rodgers, they took his possible replacement in Jordan Love from Utah State.
This may not be the best move for Aaron Rodgers who is a year older than Brett Favre was when he was drafted. The Packers need to look at what is best for the team though, not what is best for a prickly quarterback who is on the back end of a Hall of Fame career.
It would have been nice for Green Bay to draft a WR for Rodgers to throw to, of course. But the pick of Love makes more sense for the franchise long-term. So, congratulations to the team for doing the right thing here. The question we now have to try to answer is, what does this mean for Jordan Love based on a surprising landing spot?
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The Player
We all know the arm strength is there. At 6’3" and 225 pounds, the size is also there. Here's a look at his PlayerProfiler graph:
His size is very comparable to Aaron Rodgers. Love is one inch taller than Rodgers and is the same weight. Another similarity is the arm strength both possess in spades. Rodgers has used his arm talent as well as his athleticism to become a two-time MVP and two-time All-Pro selection. This, after sitting behind Brett Favre for multiple years and learning his craft. If Jordan Love is going to succeed, he is going to do the exact same thing behind Aaron Rodgers.
After starting as a freshman and compiling 1,635 pass yards with eight TD and six INT, Love had his real breakout in 2018. In that season, he threw for 3,567 yards with 32 TD and six INT again.
After the 2018 season where he dominated the Mountain West Conference, he lost his head coach, Matt Wells, and the entire coaching staff to Texas Tech. Not only did he lose his coaches, he also lost his top four offensive linemen, top two receivers and his starting running back. Unlike a school like Alabama or Georgia, Utah State cannot easily replace all of these parts. It was therefore expected for Love to take a step back.
With all-new surroundings during his final season with the Aggies, Love only managed 20 TD while leading the country with 17 INT in a disappointing final season in school. Despite the down season, Love rightly decided it was a better time for him to come out than waiting until next season and competing with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in the 2021 draft class.
After running a 4.74 40-yard dash with a 94.1 SPARQ-X score placing him in the 63rd percentile, it seemingly worked out for him as he was taken in the first round. He also goes to a great team that is always in the playoff hunt. As long as he is willing to learn and Aaron Rodgers is willing to teach, this could be a great place for Jordan Love.
In his final season in college, Love also ran for 175 yards. This shows an ability that is becoming more and more coveted in the NFL. Even the rocket-armed Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have the ability to do so. It was key to the success of both the Chiefs and Bills in 2019. If Love ends up replacing Rodgers in a couple of years, it will need to be a part of his overall game as well. Otherwise, he may end up in the long list of physically-gifted QBs who just never worked out. Jeff George, JaMarcus Russell and the like. It is obvious he has the traits to succeed in the NFL. In Green Bay, we now have to determine if he has found the right fit.
The Future
There is no need to discuss Jordan Love as far as a redraft league is concerned. He is not going to beat out Aaron Rodgers this season or next season. The huge contract of Rodgers makes it impossible for this to happen. Even if Rodgers gets injured, Love may be far from ready for NFL action in 2020. This does not mean he has no value though. If you are playing in a dynasty league, Love could now become a good value at a low draft price.
Top selections Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow are going to go much higher in rookie drafts. Love, on the other hand, is going to be looked at as someone who went to a bad spot and will be moved down draft boards. If you can get him in the third or fourth round of a rookie draft, I would be excited to do so. Look at what you would have had for the past 12 seasons if you had drafted and stored Aaron Rodgers. Or what you are now getting from Patrick Mahomes - a player we knew would not start his first season.
From 2007 until 2014, Rodgers had 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Since that time, his average has gone down to 7.2 yards. Blame Matt Lafleur and the new offense, but the fact is that Rodgers is gradually declining. Jordan Love, even with his bad 2019 season included, has a career average of 7.9 yards per attempt. Of course, college is not the same as the NFL but he also did not have the receivers like Davante Adams either.
While others are low on Jordan Love due to the landing spot or shaky 2019 season, I am trying to think positive. Sure, he will not play for a year or two. But it will give him a great chance to learn behind one of the best ever and enter a great situation when his turn comes. Even if Aaron Rodgers does not want to be a teacher, that might not matter. Neither did Brett Favre and look how well Rodgers still turned out. If Love watches and learns, he will come out on the other side an even better option for both the Packers and more importantly, your dynasty team.
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