Is 2023 the Year of the Rookie Pitcher in Fantasy Baseball?

April 27, 2023

Analysis of elite MLB starting pitcher prospects for fantasy baseball. Rookie arms like Mason Miller, Kodai Senga, Logan Allen, Taj Bradley are fantasy risers.

Over the past week, MLB prospects like Mason Miller, Logan Allen, and Levi Stoudt made their major league debut as starting pitchers. They joined eight other young arms who have debuted as starters in the major leagues this season.

With less than a month of the season played, this accounts for one-sixth of the total starting pitcher debuts in 2022 (48).

So, how do these 2023 pitchers compare to some of the young starters who debuted in 2022, such as Hunter Brown, Hunter Greene, George Kirby, and Nick Lodolo?

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The Top Rookie Arms of 2023 (So Far)

Mason Miller, SP, Oakland Athletics

Miller was unranked in a number of prospect lists prior to the season. However, he exploded onto the scene with a dominant Arizona Fall League last year. Despite only having thrown 45 professional innings between the minors and the AFL, he made his major league debut on April 19.

In his two starts, Miller featured his electric 4-seam fastball, which averaged 99 MPH and touched 102.5 MPH. He also added a cutter that averaged 95 MPH and a slider that hit 90 MPH.

Miller's pitch profile and velocity are very similar to Corbin Burnes, with Miller adding a few more MPH to his top end. Although Miller will likely have a limited inning count this season, the innings he does pitch have the potential to be elite.

Logan Allen, SP, Cleveland Indians

Logan Allen appeared on Baseball America's Top 100 at #85, but he didn't appear on MLB Pipeline's list or Baseball Prospectus' rankings. After being selected in the second round of the 2020 draft from Florida International, Allen has often been confused with Logan Shane Allen, who was in the Cleveland organization until last summer.

In his first start of the season on April 23, Allen primarily featured his 4-seam fastball and his split-finger pitch. Allen also utilized a sweeper and a cutter.

The lefty saw all four pitches exhibit vertical movement that was two to eight percent greater than the MLB average for each pitch, allowing him to go 86 pitches while striking out eight and walking just one over six innings.

Allen has mid-rotation stuff from the left side, but he has seen an additional tick in the movement of his pitches this year, and he could be a viable No. 2 starter if he can maintain that raw stuff.

Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Baltimore Orioles

A consensus top-10 prospect in the game, Grayson has registered elite Stuff+ since last season, and that's continued into his MLB debut, with four of his five pitches registering at least a 100 Stuff+ grade.

The issue for Rodriguez this season has been his command/control. He has cleaned that up somewhat in the majors, registering a 104 Location+, but he's exhibited plus control throughout the minors, so even being slightly above average is a dip.

Despite his struggles with control, Rodriguez will have a rotation spot in Baltimore, and he has struck out 25 batters over 19 1/3 innings, so he's absolutely in no danger of being a cut candidate in fantasy.

Taj Bradley, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

While Miller may have the elite velocity, Bradley has had the best early results after being promoted. Bradley was a consensus top-50 prospect entering the season, but he's been an underappreciated prospect since the Rays drafted him in the fifth round in 2018.

Bradley may not light up the radar gun but he gets elite spin on the heater and does get an average velocity of 95+. He also works in a cutter, curve, and change.

Bradley's profile may not be that of an "ace" starter in raw stuff, but he gets dynamic results due to his mentality on the mound and his ability to pound the strike zone. He's posted a 23:2 K/BB over 15 1/3 innings.

The Rays recently sent Bradley down to get on a regular rotation schedule after his three-start audition. However, he should return to the Rays' rotation for the rest of the year. So, if you own him in redraft, hold on because his rest-of-season could be among the best of a very strong rookie class.

Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets

The Mets signed Senga this offseason, and the 30-year-old made his MLB debut this year. Through four starts, Senga has shown impressive swing-and-miss stuff, but he's also been hit hard when he misses his spots.

Senga has averaged 96 MPH with his 4-seam fastball and is also featuring a forkball, sweeper, and cutter. Senga's forkball is an elite pitch, generating whiffs 54 percent of the time, with hitters producing only a .185 xwOBA against the pitch.

The Mets signed Senga with the expectation that he'd be a mid-rotation arm with upside. So far, he has fulfilled that profile. However, his success as the season wears on will depend on how the league adjusts to him and how he adjusts to the league.

More Starting Pitcher Prospects to Monitor

The 2023 crop of top-ranked mound prospects is not yet complete. Pitchers such as Ricky Tiedemann, Andrew Painter, Eury Perez, Kyle Harrison, Bobby Miller, Gavin Williams, Mick Abel, Gavin Stone, Brandon Pfaadt, Quinn Priester, and more are in the upper minors and have the potential to debut as starters.

This year, teams with rookie starting pitchers could end up in the hunt for championships. Typically, a roster stacked with young arms struggles to maintain consistency. But this year's crop is incredibly elite and could carry teams to championship contention.

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