Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 8)

May 16, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 8 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 8 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xSLG) underachievers and overachievers.

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Manny Machado, Heliot Ramos, and Brett Baty. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate, but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats, or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Jacob Wilson and Ryan McMahon were a couple of good callouts who kept on hitting. So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 8. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 5/14

Manny Machado (14 games)

As a six-time All-Star with a career .280 batting average and 123 wRC+, it's not exactly a surprise to see Machado as the current hit streak leader. What you may not have noticed, though, is that Machado is off to one of the best starts of his career.

The 32-year-old has a .340/.410/.490 slash line with a .394 wOBA and a 157 wRC+ through 42 games. But he's been even hotter than that slash line suggests during this hit streak, going 24-for-50 (.480) over the last two weeks with four doubles, a home run, nine RBI, 15 runs scored, and a stolen base.

The hot stretch has pushed the veteran all the way up to a top-25 fantasy player so far in 2025. When compared to career numbers, regression should probably be expected. However, not as much as you might think.

The right-handed hitter is chasing a little less, striking out less, walking more, and what's more is that his hard-hit rate ranks in the 97th percentile. Normally, with a batting average as high as his, it's because of some luck, and the xBA is usually lower. But his is higher!

Machado has an xBA of .353, which is the best in the majors. With an 11.8 percent barrel rate, one would expect more than three home runs in the year, but his xSLG of .577 also indicates that he should be smacking more extra-base hits.

Of course, none of this really helps fantasy managers in season-long leagues because the two-time Silver Slugger award winner is 99 percent rostered. But DFS players have to have him near the top of the player pool when San Diego is projected to score a bunch of runs.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 5/14, minimum 13 at-bats

Heliot Ramos (.550 BA)

Outside of a four-game stretch in early April when he went 0-for-15, Ramos has been hitting well all season, slashing .288/.353/.485 with a .362 wOBA and 134 wRC+ through 43 games.

His performance over the last week boosted those numbers when the former first-round draft pick went 11-for-20 (.550) with two doubles, two home runs, eight RBI, and three runs scored, while striking out only once (two walks).

As with Machado, you aren't going to find him in many leagues with 80 percent rostership, but he could be a solid DFS target, especially when playing on the road. Oracle Park is notoriously poor for hitting home runs, and it is showing through in Ramos's 2025 numbers.

The 25-year-old has one home run and a .057 ISO in 19 games at home, compared to six home runs and a .301 ISO in 24 games on the road. For his career, he owns a .304 wOBA and 98 wRC+ at home, versus a .361 wOBA and 131 wRC+ on the road.

The Giants play a six-game homestand starting Friday (vs. A's, vs. KC) but then hit the road for nine games (@WAS, @DET, @MIA). While he may perform well over the next week, make sure to give him extra consideration in DFS during that road trip.

Carlos Narvaez (.500 BA)

Need some help at catcher? Sure, you could go out and make a speculative add of Moises Ballesteros or Dalton Rushing, both of whom were hitting very well at Triple-A prior to their call-ups in recent days.

Or, you could pick up Carlos Narvaez off the waiver wire, a catcher who has already proven he can hit major league pitching -- at least lately, anyhow. Over the last week (six games), the Venezuelan backstop is 10-for-20 (.500) with a double, a home run, four RBI, and five runs scored.

But he's been hitting since mid-April, collecting at least one base hit in 15 of 19 games in which he started since April 15, going 22-for-69 (.319) during that time, including four home runs.

Carlos Narváez (4)
2-Run Home Run

Opponent: Kansas City Royals
Pitcher: Angel Zerpa
Date: 5/10/25 pic.twitter.com/ZgXSSLAvwZ

— Red Sox Home Runs (@RedSox_HR) May 11, 2025

With "primary" catcher Connor Wong working his way back from a fractured pinky and hitting just .146 with zero home runs in the majors, along with Narvaez's stellar defense, there would seem to be a path to regular at-bats.

Manager Alex Cora even recently stated that when Wong returns, Narvaez "will play a lot," and he's available in nearly every fantasy league.

Or you could just go get Drake Baldwin, who has been swinging a hot bat and is under 10 percent rostered.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 5/14, minimum 13 at-bats

Brett Baty (.800 ISO)

Brett Baty was sent to Triple-A on April 24 after opening the season 11-for-54 (.204) with one home run, but was recalled on May 5, and the left-handed hitter has made it look like he wants to stay this time around.

BRETT BATY'S THIRD HOME RUN IN TWO DAYS!

(via @Mets) pic.twitter.com/pQlx9BFdQM

— SNY (@SNYtv) May 11, 2025

After going 0-for-4 in his first game back, he has gone 6-for-15 (.400) with four home runs over the past week. Importantly, he's struck out just three times in 19 PA since his return, equivalent to a 15.8 percent strikeout rate, compared to the 32.8 percent rate he registered before the demotion.

The 25-year-old won't stay on this pace for the rest of the season, but you could certainly use him in DFS while he's hot, although he'll likely only play against right-handed pitching, which could make him a little frustrating in season-long leagues.

Still, the former first-round draft pick is available in over 90 percent of Yahoo! leagues and is eligible at both 2B and 3B for those interested in his services.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 5/14

Mike Yastrzemski (three SBs)

Coming into 2025, Mike Yastrzemski's career high for stolen bases in a season was five, which was done in 148 games back in 2022. With three steals in the last week alone, the veteran is up to five already for the season through only 39 games.

If the 34-year-old can somehow maintain this pace, he'll swipe 15 bags when it's all said and done. What's more is that he's making more contact (82.8 percent), striking out far less (20.9 percent), and walking more (13.3 percent) than career norms.

Add in a 9.7 percent barrel rate, and he should flirt with 20 home runs just like he did last season (18). The left-handed slugger owns a .369 wOBA, a 138 wRC+, and is hitting leadoff for a top 10 run-producing team, but is still available in around 80 percent of leagues.

He's worth adding in most 12-team leagues, at least as a bench bat, and if he keeps stealing a few bases here and there, it'll be icing on the cake.

xSLG Underachiever

Data through 5/14   

Normally, this section is used for xBA under and overachievers, but I periodically switch it up to look at xSLG over and underachievers, and that's what I'll do this week. These guys have been hitting more (or fewer) extra-base knocks than the stats anticipate, and could soon see a change in the opposite direction.

Bryan Reynolds (.309 vs. .471)

There are a lot of big names on the above list, but we'll single out the guy who is supposed to be Mr. Consistent. Bryan Reynolds is hitting .194 with a career-worst .253 wOBA and 55 wRC+ so far.

His numbers are scattered about, as the switch-hitter's chase rate is way down year-over-year, while swinging-strike rate is slightly down, and contact rate is slightly up. Yet he's striking out more than six percent higher than his career average.

Although the two-time All-Star has five home runs on the year, the same as he had to this point last season, he's got just five doubles and no triples. Again, compared to last season for perspective, he had 11 doubles and a triple at this point.

With a career SLG of .461, his current xSLG of .471 is right in line with that number, and based on those contradictory stats mentioned earlier, it should all add up to Reynolds starting to get hot here soon.

Also, remember that June is usually the best month of his career by far. In June, he has a career AVG of .340 and SLG of .572, which would perfectly align with the turnaround expectations outlined here.

Bryan Reynolds is SCORCHING in June.

He has a 20-game hitting streak and 3 homers in his last 4 games. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ZgbYn2WYiD

— MLB (@MLB) June 23, 2024

Fear not, when the season is over, he'll own a .270 AVG with 25 home runs, 80 RBI, 70 R, and 10 steals with a .340 wOBA and 110 wRC+.

xSLG Overachiever

Data through 5/14

Carson Kelly (.627 vs. .515)

Not to rain on Carson Kelly's parade, but as a career .228 hitter with a career SLG of .386, a current .289 AVG and a .627 SLG feel a bit rich, to say the least. But that's pointing out the obvious, as Kelly was never going to get to 27 home runs, the pace he's currently on if he were to match his career high of 365 PA.

The 30-year-old's .515 xSLG even looks inflated, and unfortunately, it looks like we're starting to see the shine come off. He was hitting .361 with an .820 SLG on May 5 but has since seen his batting average drop to .289. He has gone 2-for-22 (.091) since then, with neither of those hits going for extra bases.

The 6-foot-1 backstop is still ranked as the third-highest scoring catcher in fantasy right now, so it may be worth seeing what a catcher-needy manager is willing to give up for him, as there is likely further to fall.

Then, you can go grab Baldwin to fill your catcher spot. I know I already said to grab him above, but hurry, you're going to miss out!

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