RADIO
All in all, it was a pretty good night! The Celtics won outright at plus money and finished off their sweep of the Nets while the Mavericks dominated the Jazz and in dismantling them, held them to 72 total points so we hit the spread AND the total there. Both of our Mavs' wings hit three treys to hit their props, too.
But the Sixers laid a big egg and now you have to wonder at what point do the Raptors have a fighting chance at coming all the way back? I had Toronto to win the series 4-3 at the outset, but that was before they went down 3-0 and were dealing with injuries to Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., and Fred VanVleet. Game six will head back to Toronto and we shall see just how thick the plot gets on Thursday night. But before we get to any game sixes, we have three different game fives on the slate tonight and one series in Miami that could wrap up as the Heat have a 3-1 lead there.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 44-46
- Against the Spread 18-15
- Over/Under 6-6
- Player Props 20-25
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NBA Betting Picks for 4/26
Atlanta Hawks (+7) @ Miami Heat (217.5 total)
I think the Hawks season ends tonight, it's that plain and simple. Miami has dominated them in all three wins and the one outlier in this series was the game three comeback for Atlanta that they won in the final seconds. Clint Capela returned for the Hawks in game four but wasn't all that effective and Bodgan Bogdanovic disappeared entirely. Perhaps the ankle is bothering Bog-Bog more than he's letting on, but the Hawks don't seem to have much punch left and Trae Young continues to be held in check by a stifling Miami defense.
The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, but that didn't stop them from hammering Atlanta in game four. They had a bunch of guards step up in his absence - and not the usual guy you're thinking of as Tyler Herro was held to three points and played only 21 minutes. Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Victor Oladipo all played well and these guards can all defend, too, especially Oladipo.
The Hawks just have no answer for "Playoff Jimmy" as he went for 36-10-4 in game four. They simply can't guard him and he knows it. This Miami team isn't pretty to watch, but they don't mind winning ugly and their physicality and toughness have been too much for Atlanta in this series.
The Hawks are averaging only 98 points through the first four games of the series. Miami has held them in check and I think are likely to slow this one down tonight at home and dictate the pace of the game. In the two games where they covered this spread of seven points, they held the Hawks to 86 and 91 points. I think I am going under on the Hawks team total here as I could see them continue to struggle to score in game five. The Heat cover tonight and hold Atlanta under 104!
The Picks: Heat -7 (-110), Hawks team total UNDER 104.5
Minnesota Timberwolves (+6) @ Memphis Grizzlies (232.5 total)
This has been quite a series so far. My original prediction was Memphis in six games, so they'll need to win the next two in order to make me look good. My gut says that it probably goes seven games now, regardless of who wins tonight, but only time will tell how it ends up.
This has been a really hard series to predict every game. We've seen both teams play very poorly at times, Minnesota has blown some huge leads and Memphis has stumbled out of the gate in a few of these games and had to battle back. Game four was the closest game yet with the T-Wolves hanging on for a one-point win at home. This series has been loaded with foul trouble, too, which has really hamstrung both teams at times and prevented either team from getting into any rhythm or normal substitution rotations.
Which version of which teams show up tonight for game five? We know KAT can dominate this Memphis interior when he's not in foul trouble. And we know Ja Morant can win his matchup, too. I'm still firmly in the camp of "we have yet to see Memphis' best game yet" and I think they have the better all-around team from top to bottom. If we get the Grizzlies' best effort, which I think we finally do here at home in a must-win game, then I think they sail past the Wolves with relative ease. But if Minnesota jumps out early, it will be a battle all night. I'm willing to bet on the former, but this result is the least confident of my picks for the slate tonight. I'm laying the points and going with the Grizz here.
The Pick: Grizzlies -6
New Orleans Pelicans (+6.5) @ Phoenix Suns (215.5 total)
So are the Suns really at risk of losing in the first round after having one of the most dominant seasons the NBA has seen in the last 20 years? I think they're sweating out in Arizona and not just because of the heat. The Pelicans won game four and evened the series at 2-2 behind another strong effort from Brandon Ingram and the re-emergence of Jonas Valanciunas who had been a non-factor in games two and three.
The story for Phoenix was Chris Paul, who was held to only four points and took only eight shots in the loss. It was clear that he was trying to get his teammates going, but he usually starts to take over late in the game and by point, it was already too late as the Pelicans outscored the Suns 35-23 in the third quarter and never looked back.
The Pelicans are worthy underdogs here, and while I think the most likely result tonight is a Suns win at home, New Orleans has proven that they are not going away. Since Devin Booker went down, the Pelicans are 2-1 in this series and lost game two by only three points. I think they can cover here and that this game will be close. Chris Paul should play better, but I am not sure the Suns have enough firepower to pull away from New Orleans, who have their big three of McCollum, Valanciunas, and Ingram all playing well right now.
All four games have gone over this game total (actually, game three ended at only 215 now that I look twice), and I'm back on the over tonight. We hit the over in game four even with CP3 struggling to score, and I think this one could turn into the type of high-scoring shootout we saw in game two.
The Picks: Pelicans +6.5 (-110), OVER 215.5 total points
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Jimmy Butler over 2.5 steals/blocks (+105): Jimmy's steals prop is o/1.5 but all juiced up at -160. I'll take a shot on his combined steals/blocks prop over 2.5 instead at plus money, he's hit that in three of the four games in this series.
Ja Morant over 7.5 rebounds (+100): I have been a bit underwhelming on props this postseason so I am swinging for the fences with some good odds tonight. Morant has 8 or more boards in the last three games with game one being the only game in this series where he didn't cover this prop.
Brandon Ingram over 38.5 PRA (-110): Ingram has been the guy for the Pelicans in games two, three, and four as he's cleared this number in each of those games. He continues to be the focal point on offense and can pile up counting stats in a hurry.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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