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We're set for another key stretch-run Friday night slate. As was the case last week, I have my eye on more pitchers than hitters tonight. I like the matchup for a couple of left-handers and for a righty who faces an opponent that's unfamiliar with him. Then, I'm focusing on a pair of plus-money hitter props that I think have a chance of delivering a nice return despite the longer odds.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, September 8, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Andrew Abbott OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook) or To Record A Win (+200 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Andrew Abbott faces a Cardinals offense that showed plenty of life in the first two games of their just-concluded series against the Braves with a pair of double-digit run tallies. St. Louis came back down to earth a bit on Thursday with a five-run total. On Friday, they could be stopped in their tracks considering their matchup against a talented southpaw.
St. Louis has struggled against left-handed pitching overall and carries a .219/.304/.377 slash line with a .296 wOBA and -6.4 wRAA against lefties in the last month. Abbott has been excellent in his own right and owns a 2.66 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 50.2 innings at home this season. Abbott also shut out the Cards over 5.2 innings back on June 10 in only his second big-league start. He's recorded at least 17 outs in all but two of 17 starts overall.
Kodai Senga OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-148 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Mets have certainly underachieved on a team level, but Kodai Senga has more than held his own against big-league hitters in his debut season stateside. Senga has posted an 11.1 K/9 and 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate on his way to a 10-7 mark and 3.08 ERA. The right-hander has been a tad more hittable on the road, but oddsmakers seem to feel he has a good chance of surpassing this prop on Friday based on the odds.
The Twins make for good targets for Senga on a couple of fronts. Not only are they unfamiliar with him and his infamous ghost fork pitch, but Minnesota has struck out at an MLB-high 27.4 percent clip versus righties this season. This includes 30 percent at home in the second half of the season, also the highest figure in baseball during that span.
Then, Senga has recorded 22 strikeouts across 13.2 innings in his last two starts alone. In addition, he has recorded at least seven in 13 of 25 starts overall while falling just short with six Ks on six other occasions.
Jordan Montgomery OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-108 BetMGM Sportsbook) or To Record A Win (+125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jordan Montgomery has been mostly solid all season between the Cardinals and Rangers, with his 8-10 record belied by a 3.46 ERA, modest 0.9 HR/9, and serviceable 1.23 WHIP. The left-hander did take it on the chin his last time out against the Twins, but he faces a much more palatable matchup in the Athletics at home on Friday night.
Oakland has been mostly dismal against lefties all season and carries a .228 average, .293 wOBA, and -6.3 wRAA versus southpaws over the last month. Prior to his aforementioned stumble against Minnesota, Montgomery had been very good with Texas since being traded at the deadline -- he had generated a 2-1 record, 2.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 0.6 HR/9 across 31.1 innings. Both of those victories came at home, where he also posted a 15:1 K:BB across 12 frames.
Montgomery has gone at least 5.2 innings in 18 of 27 total starts this season and should have a strong chance of getting there again Friday given the matchup.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jose Altuve OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+145 Bet360 SportsBook)
Given Jose Altuve's two-game, five-homer outburst against the Rangers earlier this week, the only explanation for getting such a great price on this prop Friday is the presence of NL Cy Young contender Blake Snell on the hill for the Padres. However, a closer look reveals that may not be the intimidating matchup it appears on paper.
Altuve has given Snell fits over the course of his career, posting a .381 average with a double, four homers, and two walks across 21 plate appearances, a span in which he's only struck out twice. Those stellar numbers track with Altuve's usual body of work against left-handers, which this season includes a .295 average, .895 OPS, .384 wOBA, and 10 extra-base hits (out of 23 total).
Snell has been very tough on all comers most of the season. But Altuve's history and recent body of work make it worth taking a chance at this price.
Spencer Steer OVER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 DraftKings SportsBook)
The Reds are projected for 5.5 runs and rising against southpaw Drew Rom and the Cardinals on Friday night. There's a good chance (better than the price for this prop would suggest) that Spencer Steer is a part of the fun. The standout rookie has posted a .311 average, .926 OPS, and .390 wOBA against left-handed pitching, along with a 142 wRC+.
Rom has pitched fairly well overall in his last two starts (4.50 ERA, 0.9 HR/9), but righty bats have gotten to him for a .333 average thus far over a 51-hitter sample. Steer has averaged two hits + runs + RBI this season. Given his matchup to open the game and ability to cash this in with one swing of the bat, he's worth considering at plus money.
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