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Justin and Jason Bales give their DraftKings MMA DFS lineup picks for the Fight Night 105 Main Card. Get a head start on your UFC DFS lineups for DraftKings.
What's up RotoBallers. In this column, Jason and I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 105. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 87-40, Jason's Record: 68-59).
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 105.
Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Experts Jason and Justin Bales? Let us know here.
Paul Felder vs Alessandro Ricci
Justin’s Pick
This is going to be a fun fight to kick off the main card, but it will likely be very one-sided. Alessandro Ricci displayed power early in his career, knocking out his first five opponents, but he has gone to decision in each of his last nine fights. Paul Felder has displayed great striking in the UFC, although he has been on a bit of a skid over his last five fights. This fight will likely stay standing, and Felder should be able to use his slick striking to finish with another highlight reel knockout.
Paul Felder via TKO, 3rd Round
Jason’s Pick
While Alessandro Ricci does provide an interesting matchup for Paul “The Irish Dragon” Felder, this should be, as Justin mentioned, a one-side affair. Felder is going to use his striking to outpoint Ricci throughout the fight, and he will also be looking for a finish. Ricci has a chance to clip Felder, but it is not likely to happen. Felder should start to work his way back into the winning spirit.
Paul Felder via Unanimous Decision
Sara McMann vs Gina Mazany
Justin’s Pick
This is an interesting fight, as Gina Mazany is a finishing specialist, but she isn’t on the level of Sara McMann. McMann has lost three fights in her career, and they were to Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate, and Amanda Nunes. McMann should have no problems getting this fight to the ground, where she will look to finish Mazany. Outside of a shocking finish for Mazany, which is extremely unlikely, this should be a fairly easy win for McMann.
Sara McMann via Submission, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
This fight should be fun to watch, but Sara McMann is going to dominate Gina “Danger” Mazany for as many rounds as it takes for her to win. She is the superior fighter, and while Mazany may have potential, she is not developed enough to keep pace with McMann. Expect this fight to finish early, and if it does not, it will be a very lopsided judge’s decision.
Sara McMann via Submission, 1st Round
Elias Theodorou vs Cezar Ferreira
Justin’s Pick
Finally we get a close matchup between two solid fighters. Both of these men have a specific path to victory, and whoever can execute their game plan will walk away with the win. Theodorou can make this a grinding fight, were he lands power punches, and can knockout Ferreira, who has been prone to knockouts throughout his career. Ferreira, on the other hand, will need to take this fight to the ground, where he can control Theodorou and look for a submission or ground and pound. Theodorou has struggled to defend takedowns through his UFC career, and that will be his downfall this week. Ferreira should be able to control the fight on his way to a decision victory or a late finish.
Cezar Ferreira via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
This should be a very exciting and close fight. Both Elias “The Spartan” Theodorou and Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira have the tools to win this fight. Personally, I have faith in Theodorou’s camp. He should have been working on takedowns since this fight was signed. If he did, he should be able to keep this fight standing, in which he gets the edge. Ferreira could still get him to the ground, but Theodorou is athletic enough to stand back up, as long as his takedown defense is working. Again, this fight could go either way, but Theodorou has the slight edge.
Elias Theodorou via Unanimous Decision
Sam Sicilia vs Gavin Tucker
Justin’s Pick
This is another fight that should feature fireworks from the start to the finish. Both fighters always look for the finish, as they have a combined 83.3% finish rate. They also both have multiple ways to finish the fight. Sicilia has looked to have lost a step or two recently, though, while Tucker is an up and coming fighter. He’s going to be looking to make a statement in this fight, and Tucker should walk away with another finish.
Gavin Tucker via TKO, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
While the fights on this week’s main card are not well-known fighters, these should be very exciting fights. If you are unsure whether or not to watch this week’s fights, I’d recommend you turn it on, at least for this fight. Gavin “The Newfoundland Terror” is a rising star in the MMA world, and Sam Sicilia is on the decline. The Canadian should be able to finish this fight early. Sicilia may look for a takedown if he starts to lose on the feet, but Tucker should be able to shake him off. Keep an eye out in the future for this kid.
Gavin Tucker via TKO, 3rd Round
Johny Hendricks vs Hector Lombard
Justin’s Pick
Both of these fighters have been struggling recently, but that has been against high-level competition. Johny Hendricks will be moving up a weight class for this fight, but the UFC may have given him a punishment fight here. Lombard comes with serious power, and Hendricks has been a hittable target in his last few fights. He could certainly rattle off a few wins in his new weight class, similarly to the way Donald Cerrone did, but it’s much more likely that Lombard walks out with his first victory since 2014.
Hector Lombard via TKO, 1st Round
Jason’s Pick
It is no secret that Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks is on the decline, and he did have to move up a weight class after missing weight in his last fight, which was against Neil Magny, but he will not lose again. Hendricks is an intelligent fighter that will not allow Hector “Showeather” Lombard to find his chin. With the added weight, it is possible that Hendricks wrestling gets even better. This may not be a very sophisticated reason for selecting Hendricks, but he is not in the position to lose another fight in a row, and he is going to have put a massive amount of work in.
Johny Hendricks via Unanimous Decision
Derrick Lewis vs Travis Browne
Justin’s Pick
This is a great matchup that could end in only a few punches. Derrick Lewis is on a five fight win streak, although his win against Roy Nelson was very questionable. Travis Browne, on the other have, has lost three of his last four fights. He’ll likely be looking to take this fight to the ground, but it’s nearly impossible to keep Derrick Lewis down for five rounds; just ask Shamil Abdurakhimov. Lewis only needs to land one punch to pick up the win, and he’s coming into this fight with a ton of confidence. I expect him to pick up another win this weekend.
Derrick Lewis via TKO, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis and Travis “Hapa” Browne do not like each other. Lewis went into his last fight with a very questionable game plan, and even he was disappointed with the result. He did, however, still pick up the win. Browne has been on a skid over his last few fights, and this Vegas line is a lot closer than I originally anticipated. Lewis should win this fight rather easily. At this point in his career, he is simply the better fighter. Lewis disappointed the Albany, New York crowd in his last game, and he will be looking to finish this week. If only UFC 208 kept this fight…
Derrick Lewis via KO, 1st Round
