RADIO
I wouldn't dare open with "happy Monday!", but let us celebrate this nice little six game slate on the 29th of January. It's something to look forward to, and I'll help you prepare. The Monday night slate is the only thing that gets me through the cubicle life, and it's extra pleasant when the slate of games are as attractive as the ones on our plate tonight.
Now that we have some Vegas lines to dissect, let's see what they're pointing to. The largest spread we have today is eight points (Memphis favored over Phoenix), so the blowout risk is fairly low across all games, especially for a mid-sized slate like we have here. Two of the games are essentially pick'em at this point, with Boston a one point favorite in Denver and Miami a one point favorite in Dallas. In terms of game that feature high point projections and close spreads, the Celtics - Nuggets matchup looks ripe for stacking. A one point spread and a total of 204 is a nice blend. Normally, 204 would be a little low to be deemed attractive, but in this matchup we have several players with high upside and that total of 204 is up to 206. Trending up is always a good thing. My favorite game to target for stacking should be fairly popular, but there is a lot of value in the underdog. The Timberwolves - Hawks matchup features just a six point spread (MIN favored) and the highest over/under (point projection) of the evening at 214.
Below you will find our daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel on 1/29/18. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options, to lower-priced players and value picks on FanDuel.
FanDuel DFS Guards
Eric Bledsoe - PG, vs PHI ($7,000)
Giannis has started to pick it up again, but my favorite Milwaukee assets today are the back-court mates of Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton. This will be a pace-up game for the Bucks, which suits Bledsoe's style quite well I might add, and Philadelphia struggles with slowing down opposing guards. For the season, they've allowed an average of more than three FanDuel points per night above price implied expectations, and rank 20th overall in DVP metrics. Considering the strong game context and low-ish price tag that accompanies Bledsoe tonight, he's an option you could build around this evening.
Mario Chalmers - PG, vs PHX ($3,600)
In short, there is a lot to like about Mr. Chalmers tonight and his matchup against the Suns. Allow me to elaborate - Chalmers has crushed value in three straight games and six of his last seven. Curiously, his price has remained the same, but it may have something to do with his minute variance and the fact that they, for the most part, usually fall in the low 20's range. That being said, he's shown us he can't beat his price implied value in that 20-22 minute range, and the upside is there seeing as he's recorded games fairly recently with over 30 minutes, and the likelihood is going to remain high with Memphis' injury riddled roster. He and his teammates get a big pace-up game tonight and the Suns are a pretty terrible defense throughout. That pace up game script is going to give he and the other guards several opportunities. For the season, he's produced at a 0.84 FanDuel point per minute mark, and in the past month, his performances have that mark at 0.91.
Khris Middleton - SG, vs PHI ($7,500)
Middleton has been playing some stellar basketball of late and we get him at a decent price point thanks to one dip in performance and Giannis' return. Certainly, some of those performances were due to Middleton converting his shots in games where he had a higher Usage rate thanks to Giannis being sidelined, but his price is down now over $1,000 from this point last week, and he's going to see 30+ minutes, a 20+ Usage rate all against a team on a back-to-back that likes to run. The Milwaukee big three could flourish in this one, and Middleton gives you a solid floor with upside to return six-to-eight times value on the dollar.
Other FanDuel DFS Guards to Consider: Corey Joseph - PG, vs CHA ($4,300); Kyrie Irving - PG, at DEN ($9,000)
FanDuel DFS Forwards
John Collins - PF, vs MIN ($5,000)
Collins' fantasy ceiling had really disapeared there for a few months, but he seems to have started reasserting himself into this out-of-sorts Atlanta offense. He gets a pretty good matchup today against Minnesota and will likely be called upon to play quite a bit down low thanks to Minnesota's size in the front court. What I like most about Collins today though is the value. This is a really cheap price point for Collins, particularly since I think he has the upside to return six to seven times his price in value. Minnesota is solid defensively, but they have allowed +2 points over price implied expectations for the season to opposing forwards. Seeing as Collins is a 1.15 FanDuel point per minute player this season and could have extra offensive opportunity here, I will be having exposure in cash and tournaments.
T.J. Warren - SF, at MEM ($6,600)
This Memphis team has been beaten down by injuries of late, and now they have the task of taking on a team that likes to get up and down the floor in a hurry, seeing as the Suns rank 4th in pace this season. Warren is my favorite target of the Phoenix bunch - his price has dropped so much that I think he can crush value, Devin Booker is Questionable (and his absence would give Warren a boost in terms of shot opportunities) and he's been a strong fantasy contributor this season, adding 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. Tonight, he projects for 32-34 minutes with a Usage rate percentage around 25. Those are attractive figures, especially for this price range and at a position where offensive upside is a bit scarce.
Other FanDuel DFS Forwards to Consider: Harrison Barnes - SF, vs MIA ($6,600); John Henson - PF, vs PHI ($5,500)
FanDuel DFS Centers
Hassan Whiteside - C, at DAL ($7,900)
While I'm likely to avoid most pieces of this matchup (it has the lowest point total projection, as well as the slowest pace), the aforementioned reasons for avoiding don't apply as strictly to big men. A slower paced matchup is pretty ideal for the big man, as Whiteside, despite being a pretty good athlete, as not one that gets up and down the floor well. The individual matchup is also very strong, and seeing as Whiteside is a focal point of this offense, the potential is sky high. In the past month, he's been producing fantasy points at an incredible rate (1.4 Fanduel PPM) and projects for 27-28 minutes tonight with a 23% Usage rate.
Other FanDuel DFS Centers to Consider: Greg Monroe - C, at MEM ($4,500)
