RADIO
Brad Johnson's premier dynasty advice for week 5. These MLB prospects and breakout candidates should make fantasy impacts in 2016 as fantasy baseball sleepers.
April has come and gone. With it, we've witnessed the usual array of breakouts, unexpected flops, and early season hot streaks. The purpose of this column is to advise you on up-and-comers in dynasty leagues.
Often, our attention will be focused on up-and-coming prospects. However, we'll also keep an eye on any non-prospects who could work their way into an important role. Everybody can see Nomar Mazara coming for miles. It's extremely costly to acquire top prospects of his ilk. When you're the first to act on a J.D. Martinez or Charlie Blackmon, you can pay pyrite prices for real gold.
Dynasty Advice for Week 5
Dansby Swanson and Ozhaino Albies - Atlanta Braves
The Braves have promoted both of their top shortstop prospects. Albies is headed to Triple-A while Swanson was bumped to Double-A. There's a very high chance we'll see them both in the majors this season.
From a fantasy perspective, Swanson is the catch. The first overall pick of the 2015 draft was acquired from the Diamondbacks in the Shelby Miller trade. Swanson, 22, has featured quality plate discipline with solid power. While he isn't hitting many home runs, Swanson has bashed a ton of doubles. At High-A, he hit .333/.441/.526 with more walks than strikeouts and 12 doubles. He hit a double and a home run in his first game since being promoted.
Albies, 19, has already advanced to Triple-A despite his extreme youth. He profiles as a 20 steal threat with solid contact skills. The best case scenario probably looks something like Elvis Andrus. There are concerns about his ability to become more than a singles hitter. He leans on a high BABIP by hitting many grounders. Major league infields are better at converting those into outs. If he's not hitting leadoff or second, his fantasy utility will be modest.
The Braves hope to pivot to contention in the near future. We may see both youngsters shortly after the Super-Two cutoff. While most teams in the Braves position would try to hold their top prospects in the minors until late-April 2017, the Braves have a shiny new stadium opening. Getting Swanson and Albies work this season will help them to sell out their new home park.
Owners of Swanson and Albies shouldn't shy away from shopping them. In the case of Swanson, you can afford to ask for the moon. If nobody meets your asking price - i.e. a top, established MLB talent - you can happily hold onto the future mid-lineup threat. Albies has a lower ceiling and floor despite plenty of prospect hype. I'd be more eager to grab some certainty.
Teams shopping for Swanson have their work cut out. He's such an obvious top prospect that he'll command a premium. Sometimes it turns out you should have paid the premium - see Carlos Correa as an example. Usually, a top prospect develops into a normal core fantasy performer. The best case trade scenarios will involve high upside pitchers with uncertainty like Luis Severino or Lance McCullers.
Theoretically, buying Albies should be more cost effective. Because he's advanced so far at such a young age, there is still serious breakout potential. Owners looking to buy him should probably be dealing from strength. Try to use older players who could lose major league relevance in the next few years like Francisco Liriano.
Advice: Speculate
Aledmys Diaz - St. Louis Cardinals
With Jhonny Peralta making headway in his rehab from a thumb injury, Diaz's days as the Cardinals starting shortstop are numbered. Unless an injury occurs to Matt Carpenter or Kolten Wong, Diaz will probably be sent back to the minors. Peralta isn't due to return for at least a month (and probably more) so Diaz's owner shouldn't panic yet. However, it may be time to quietly shop him.
Diaz has been impressive in his debut. He's hitting .405/.436/.703 with four home runs through 78 plate appearances. The power is a pleasant surprise. In addition to the long balls, he's also hit eight doubles and a triple. The 25-year-old is unlikely to maintain a Stanton-ian hard contact rate in the future. We've likely seen his best work.
That's OK. Diaz has demonstrated above average contact skills, and opposing pitchers have yet to find a way to exploit him. He reminds me of a right-handed Joe Panik. He has the tools to be an asset at the top of a lineup. The Cardinals have used him almost exclusively as an eighth hitter.
As mentioned, Diaz owners should consider selling high. While I'm a believer in his future, it's unlikely he'll ever have more trade value. The shallower your dynasty league, the more urgency you have to work out a trade. If you have depth in the middle infield, I would look to acquire a solid core performer at another position. Something along the lines of Mike Moustakas. To be clear, Moustakas is a price to settle upon and only if you can't afford to be patient. Aim higher.
When players are obvious sell-high candidates, buying opportunities sometimes arise. In my deep dynasty league, my co-owner and I have had success buying players like Martinez and Blackmon before they have a chance to fully prove they're real. Diaz has a near-future playing time crunch to navigate, but he'll eventually be an every day player.
Advice: Speculate
Rapid Fire
Brandon Drury - Arizona Diamondbacks
Drury has hit .346/.346/.885 in the last seven days with four home runs. He's been bumped up to second in the lineup in each of the last two games. Only one of those was against a lefty.
Rio Ruiz - Atlanta Braves
A third base prospect, Ruiz was terrible in 2015. He's rebounded in the early going, but a sky high strikeout rate and .429 BABIP are cause for concern.
Trey Mancini - Baltimore Orioles
Mancini earned a rapid promotion to Triple-A after hitting seven home runs in 75 Double-A plate appearances. In 26 plate appearances since promotion, he's hitting a modest .261/.346/.391.
Mike Zunino - Seattle Mariners
This isn't the first time Zunino has been demoted to the minors only to rake with authority. He's hitting .397/.438/.767 with seven home runs in 80 plate appearances. He also has a tolerable 17.5 percent strikeout rate. He's a solid speculative add if the cost is low. There's still a good chance his previous contact issues will return once he reappears in the majors.
Sherman Johnson - Los Angeles Angels
Johnson is far from a hyped prospect yet he leads all Double-A hitters with a .365/.500/.673 line. Beware: he's nearly 26 and preying upon younger competition. He's shown plus plate discipline, decent speed, and modest power in the minors. The Angels aren't known for developing unknown players into real assets.
MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
