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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing eleven-game mix on DraftKings, though the Mets-Nationals is excluded from the FanDuel main slate. The weather looks mostly clear, though it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/21/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Gausman, TOR vs. BAL ($9,800 DK, $11,200 FD)
This slate features no shortage of pitching options, but Gausman carries the highest ceiling. He sports a 3.11 xERA alongside a 2.35 xFIP, .278 xwOBA, 4.1% walk rate, and .225 xBA. Gausman does get shelled from time to time, having surrendered seven earned runs or more in two starts this season. However, he hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his other seven starts, including five outings without allowing any earned runs. Gausman also pitches deep, averaging 6.1 innings per start with four appearances pitching seven innings or more.
The primary reason we like Gausman is for the strikeouts. He brings an elite 34.7% strikeout rate, bolstered by his 30.7% whiff rate and 36.7% chase rate. Gausman has recorded 10 or more strikeouts in four starts this season. That combination of high strikeout production while regularly pitching deep into games is what makes Gausman such a desirable fantasy target.
Gausman draws a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. It's not an ideal opponent, but they are also not as scary as you might think. Baltimore scores five runs per game, though their preference for left-handed pitching is noteworthy. The Orioles carry a middling .734 OPS against right-handed pitching, which includes a .170 ISO and 103 wRC+. With names like Cedric Mullins and Adley Rutschman to contend with, playing Gausman comes with risk. However, if things go his way, there's a decent probability Gausman will be the highest-scoring pitcher on this slate.
Andrew Heaney, TEX vs. COL ($7,700 DK, $9,400 FD)
Continuing with the trend of high-risk, high-reward, Heaney looks tempting. He sports a mediocre 4.71 ERA, though his advanced numbers suggest better results should occur. This discrepancy is best illustrated by Heaney's 3.79 xERA, which includes a .209 xBA, .305 xwOBA, and a 30.6% hard-hit rate. He also brings a strong 26.6% strikeout rate, which is something of a slump compared to the 35.5% mark Heaney posted in 2022.
Heaney's volatility can be observed in his game log. Of his eight total starts, two have seen him get lit up for six or more earned runs, while he's surrendered three earned runs or fewer in each of the other six outings. Heaney has only allowed 32 hits all season over 42 innings pitched, though his concerning 10.2% barrel rate has resulted in eight home runs. Still, the odd long ball is a worthwhile trade-off for Heaney's strikeout upside.
Outside of a very accessible DraftKings price, Heaney's matchup is what has me most excited to play him today. Colorado owns an awful .673 OPS against southpaw pitching, including a .137 ISO, 69 wRC+, and 24.6% strikeout rate. Notably for Heaney, who holds a career-worst 10.2% walk rate this season, the Rockies walk at just a 7.2% rate. And as an added bonus, this game is away from Coors Field, further diminishing what we can expect from the Colorado offense. The conditions are fairly ideal for a big Heaney day.
Also consider: Max Scherzer (DK only), Framber Valdez, Merrill Kelly, George Kirby
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Max Muncy – 3B, LAD vs. Jack Flaherty ($5,100 DK, $3,900 FD)
Muncy's power stroke is as good as it has ever looked. He ranks second in the majors with 15 home runs this season. That includes an outstanding .641 slugging percentage, .380 ISO, 181 wRC+, and 11 home runs against right-handed pitching.
On the flip side, Jack Flaherty has a continuing problem with left-handed hitters. Lefties carry a .549 slugging percentage and .437 wOBA against him this season. Factoring in the 10.9% barrel rate Flaherty has surrendered, and Muncy looks to be in an advantageous spot here.
Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B, KC vs. Lance Lynn ($4,000 DK, $3,200 FD)
If you thought Flaherty's trouble with left-handed hitting was noteworthy, take a glance at Lance Lynn. Lefties are slugging .653 against him this season, including a .449 wOBA and eight home runs. This isn't a new problem for Lynn, as the struggle has plagued him throughout his career, but 2023 may be the worst iteration yet for the 36-year-old.
Conversely, Pasquantino has handled right-handed pitching in his short MLB career. He sports a .489 slugging percentage and .230 ISO against righties this year, including seven home runs and 10 doubles. Pasquantino is the most equipped lefty bat in the Royals lineup to capitalize on Lynn's shortcomings.
Joey Meneses – 1B, WSH vs. Joey Wentz ($3,000 DK, $2,800 FD)
Meneses' power stroke has been relatively quiet lately, but his success against lefties last year has not been forgotten. In 2022, Meneses slugged .676 with a .310 ISO, .461 wOBA, and 201 wRC+ against southpaws. He's hit more for average than power so far this season, but his 48.2% hard-hit rate suggests there's more in the tank. In any event, Meneses is cheap to roster, and the upside is evident.
In a rare battle of Joeys, Joey Wentz will be Joey Meneses' opponent today. Wentz carries some prospect pedigree, but that hasn't stopped him from getting shelled by right-handed hitting. Righties are slugging .504 against him with seven home runs. If we're to believe that Meneses is still a power hitter, this is a good time for him to show it.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Yordan Alvarez – OF, HOU vs. James Kaprielian ($6,100 DK, $4,300 FD)
Alvarez appears primed for a home run today. He brings a .291/.388/.553 slash line with nine home runs into play. That includes some truly elite advanced metrics, such as his .569 xSLG, .399 xwOBA, 159 wRC+, 53.4% hard-hit rate, and a 17.5% barrel rate. Alvarez can tear the cover off the ball as well as anyone, and today's matchup is particularly advantageous.
James Kaprielian has established himself as a mediocre starting pitcher over the past few seasons. This year he's bounced around from starter to bullpen to, most recently, Triple-A. There are numerous holes in Kaprielian's game, but above all else are his struggles with left-handed hitting. For his career, lefties are slugging .478 against him, up to .712 this season with a .478 wOBA across seven appearances.
Teoscar Hernandez – OF, SEA vs. Jared Shuster ($3,500 DK, $2,800 FD)
Following a slow start to the season, Hernandez has found his groove at the plate lately. He's hit safely in seven of his past eight games, including four multi-hit efforts in that span. It was only a matter of time until Hernandez would start mashing, given his excellent batted-ball profile featuring a .479 xSLG, 47.7% hard-hit rate, and 13.5% barrel rate. Further, he has a longstanding preference for left-handed pitching, carrying a career .570 slugging percentage and .298 ISO against southpaws.
Jared Shuster is a promising pitching prospect, but he has struggled mightily in his first few major-league starts. He sports a .644 xERA, which includes a .458 xSLG, .289 xBA, .385 xwOBA, 44.4% hard-hit rate, and a 91.3 MPH average exit velocity. Notably, Shuster doesn't miss bats, owning a horrible 12.5% strikeout rate and 21.6% whiff rate. That's great news for Hernandez, whose main offensive struggle is putting the ball in play.
Kevin Kiermaier – OF, TOR vs. Dean Kremer ($2,500 DK, $2,900 FD)
If you find yourself needing to fill an outfield slot near the minimum price, you can do a lot worse than Kiermaier. He's quietly having the best offensive season of his career, slashing .322/.379/.504 with three home runs, two triples, nine doubles, and five stolen bases. Kiermaier has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, including six multi-hit games during that span.
Dean Kremer is susceptible to hitters of all handedness. He sports a horrendous .564 xSLG, .394 xwOBA, .305 xBA, 48.3% hard-hit rate, 90.8 MPH average exit velocity, and 11.3% barrel rate. The entire Blue Jays lineup looks good against Kremer today, but if you need a cheap one-off, Kiermaier is worth a look.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Houston Astros vs. James Kaprielian
Kaprielian's struggles were touched on above, but his vulnerability against left-handed hitters is only the jumping-off point. Kaprielian has been lit up by all hitters this season to the tune of a .498 xSLG, .386 xwOBA, 12.9% walk rate, 90.8 MPH average exit velocity, and 9.7% barrel rate. That all amounts to a 6.49 xERA and 6.02 xFIP. Even if Kaprielian does manage a decent start today, Oakland's bullpen carries a 6.54 ERA, by far the worst mark in the league.
Houston's offense has been a disappointment overall this season, yet they appear ready to finally hit their stride. Yordan Alvarez has been predictably amazing, while guys like Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are starting to heat up, and Jose Altuve has finally rejoined the team. With the exception of Michael Brantley, the Astros are effectively at full strength for the first time in 2023. Given Oakland's many pitching-related shortcomings, this is an opportune time for Houston to get some batting practice.
Favorite Plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Dean Kremer
Dean Kremer owns one of the uglier Baseball Savant pages. He ranks in the bottom 10th percentile among all pitchers with each of his 48.3% hard-hit rate, .305 xBA, .564 xSLG, and .394 xwOBA, alongside similarly terrible 11.3% barrel rate and 90.8 MPH average exit velocity. Altogether, that adds up to a 6.83 xERA.
Kremer draws an unfortunate matchup with a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Getting through the lethal big names of George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Matt Chapman is enough of a task in and of itself, but strong performances from guys like Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier have made this Toronto batting order intimidatingly deep.
Favorite Plays: Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Kevin Kiermaier
Also Consider: Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers
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