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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on April 17, 2023. Casey Wilson's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's great to settle back into baseball here on an early Monday morning with a coffee in hand. We get a nine-game slate here after an exciting baseball weekend. We have an excellent top-end pitching slate with little elite value. We also have Coors Field on the slate with one of the slate's worst arms throwing in the mile-high city. We will do our best to navigate today's slate and find ways to build our best lineups.
Weather will be a significant factor today as we're back to colder temps in parts of the country. I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the picks I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my process.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/10/2023 and the slate locking at 7:10 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jacob deGrom, KC vs. TEX ($10,100 DK, $10,600 FD)
Jacob deGrom gets a rematch from his start last week with the Royals. When healthy deGrom is one of the best pitchers in the big leagues, and a matchup with the Royals in a big ballpark creates a lot of upside here for deGrom. To open the season, deGrom has a 40.9% K and struck out nine of these very Royals in his last outing. He has gone 92 and 98 pitches in his previous two outings, so there is no leash for deGrom. He is underpriced at $10,100 on DraftKings and $10,600 on FanDuel and seems like an excellent bet to get us 30-plus fantasy points tonight.
The Royals, as a team, have a 24.4% K, .125 ISO, and .275 wOBA. They have scored 36 total runs this season, the third worst in baseball, and have hit only seven home runs in 418 plate appearances. This offense is one of the worst in baseball and one we will be attacking all season.
Hayden Wesneski, OAK vs. CHC ($6,300 DK, $7,200 FD)
Hayden Wesneski has not been particularly sharp early this season, but I am unwilling to write him off yet. We have a perfect bounce-back opportunity as he lines up for a start in the Collesium against the Athletics. He had a tremendous start to his big league career last season when he made his debut late in 2022. He went 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 25.0% K. The walks are what has plagued him in his first two starts, as he has a 17.1% BB and only an 11.4% K. I am willing to bet on the talent here and hope the command and strikeouts return closer to his career averages.
The Athletics are a dream matchup, especially at home, playing in one of the worst hitter parks in the big leagues. To open 2023 the A’s own a 24.2% K, a .141 ISO, and a .304 wOBA. The other intriguing thing here is the price. Wesneski is only $6,300 on DraftKings and $7,200 on FanDuel, so much of the risk is baked into the price. He is the perfect SP2 on DraftKings and even viable on FanDuel if you want to pay up for stacks. I expect him to get ownership, but let’s hope the rough start to the season helps him go a bit overlooked.
Also consider: Corbin Burnes, David Peterson
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
C.J. Cron - 1B, COL vs. Rich Hill ($5,400 DK, $3,800 FD)
C.J. Cron gets one of the best matchups on the board tonight and is a bet to hit a home run. His adversary Rich Hill has a 3.6 HR/9 with a 50.9% FB to start the season. He also possesses a .426 ISO and a .412 wOBA to right-hand hitters. Cron has hit lefties his whole career, and in 35 plate appearances against lefties this season, he has a .424 ISO and a .404 wOBA. Hills 12.3% K means Cron will make contact and likely hit the ball in the air. Denver air.
Nathaniel Lowe - 1B, TEX vs. Jordan Lyles ($4,400 DK, $3,300 FD)
Nate Lowe faces his former teammate Jordan Lyles tonight in Kauffman Stadium. Lyles gave up 26 home runs last season with a 38.4% FB. He is much weaker against left-hand hitters and had a .222 ISO and a .355 wOBA against that split in 2022. This season Lyles is right in line with his 2022 splits posting a .219 ISO and a .303 wOBA. With no Corey Seager, Lowe is the best lefty in this Texas lineup, and because Lyles gives up so many fly balls, it should negate Lowe’s 55.6% GB. The stadium is not ideal, but the matchup here is perfect for Lowe.
Willy Adames - SS, MIL vs. Chris Flexen ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD)
Willy Adames faces Chris Flexen, and Flexen is about as reverse splits as they come. Since the start of last season, Flexen has a .214 ISO, .351 wOBA, 45.2% FB and a 46.9% hard hit against right-hand bats. Adames is in the same boat as Flexen; he hits righties much better with a .237 ISO, .330 wOBA, and a 41.4% hard hit. Adames weakness with strikeouts is also no concern since Flexen doesn’t miss many bats with his 14.1% K.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Kyle Schwarber - OF, PHI vs. Lance Lynn ($5,600 DK, $3,200 FD) (POSTPONED)
Kyle Schwarber faces Lance Lynn tonight, and Lynn has been hit hard to start 2023. Lynn has already given up six home runs in 2023, with a 40.9% hard hit. He has a .538 ISO and a .542 wOBA against lefties to start the season, and Kyle Schwarber has mashed righties since he came out of the womb. Since 2022 Schwarber has a .330 ISO and a .371 wOBA against right-hand pitching. My only pause for concern here would be Lynn is missing a lot of bats, and Schwarber does have a 28.5% K. Schwarber is very underpriced on FanDuel.
Seiya Suzuki - OF, CHC vs. Kyle Muller ($5,100 DK, $3,000 FD)
Seiya Suzuki returned this weekend from his IL stint to open the season. He hit a home run in his opening game, but the matchup makes this spot so intriguing. Suzuki hit lefties well last year, with a .208 ISO, .362 wOBA, and 45.2% hard hit. He also has a massive fly ball rate at 39.3%, which is huge when facing a ground ball pitcher like Kyle Muller. Muller has a .141 ISO, .334 wOBA, and a 46.0% hard hit against righties, so the split for Suzuki is very favorable here. The FanDuel salary is much more intriguing as well.
Brian Anderson - 3B/OF, MIL vs. Chris Flexen ($3,500 DK, $3,100 FD)
Brian Anderson is an excellent value on DraftKings tonight. He gets the same matchup and split here as Willy Adames, and as mentioned above, Flexen has been getting hit hard against right-hand bats to start 2023. Anderson has opened the season with a .225 ISO, .384 wOBA, and a 48.1% hard hit. He also swings and misses a lot and doesn’t hit the ball in the air often, but Flexen allows a lot to fly balls and doesn’t get many swings and misses, making this a perfect recipe for success.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Colorado Rockies vs. Rich Hill
To start 2023, Rich Hill has a 3.6 HR/9, .395 wOBA, with a 50.9% FB. He has given up 11 extra-base hits, six being home runs in 15 innings pitched. He is also sitting at a .213 BABIP, with a 32.1% hard-hit rate which tells me that he is even getting a bit lucky to start the season. To make matters worse, he will make his next start in Coors Field, the most friendly hitting ballpark in the big leagues. In 2022 Hill had a .189 ISO, .318 wOBA, and a 39.4% FB to righties. This season he has a .426 ISO, .412 wOBA, and a 51.1% FB to righties.
The Rockies are full of right-handed bats that can do damage, and I expect a couple of them to take advantage of the amicable splits of Hill. C.J. Cron, as mentioned above, is in a dream matchup. Kris Bryant hits the ball on the ground at almost a 45% clip, but a fly ball pitcher like Hill gives him a chance to get a couple of balls into the mile-high city air. Jurickson Profar and Yonathan Daza should be towards the top of the order, Elias Diaz makes for a decent catching option, and the lefties of Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon will be lower owned in this stack. I expect them to be chalky, so we must find ways to get different if we stack them up.
Favorite Plays: C.J. Cron, Kris Bryant, Yonathan Daza, Jurickson Profar
2. Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chris Flexen
Milwaukee Brewers face Chris Flexen in what sets up a nice spot here tonight. Milwaukee has been swinging it early this season as they rank in the top 10 in the big leagues in about every offensive category. Flexen has struggled early this season, and the red-hot Brewers aren’t the get-right spot like we see Wesenski in. Flexen has a 6.88 xFIP, 38.1% hard hit, 35.7% FB, 12.7% BB, and only a 10.9% K to start the season. Right-hand bats are smacking him around, and Flexen has shown signs of being reverse splits even in 2022, although lefties can still get to him as well.
Willy Adames and William Contreras are my two favorite bats here since they fit the reverse split mold of Flexen. Rowdy Tellez has been scorching hot to start 2023 with a .410 ISO, .418 wOBA, and a 47.1% hard hit against righties. Brian Anderson makes for great value as he has also been scorching hot to start the season. We can fill our stacks with Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich, Mike Brosseau, Joey Wiemer, and even Brice Turang. This low-owned stack should be the perfect way to get different when playing the Rockies.
Favorite Plays: Willy Adames, William Contreras, Brain Anderson, Rowdy Tellez
Also Consider:
3. Atlanta Braves vs. Ryan Weathers
4. Texas Rangers vs. Jordan Lyles
5. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Lance Lynn (POSTPONED)
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