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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/12/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBalles! We are absolutely flying towards the end of the regular season. I'm looking to get the season ended on a high note, so let's hope that pitchers leave some hanging and the hitters we're backing bang them out of the park.
In this article, I'll have four home run spots that I like. I've got a trio of lefties I'm high on today, but if you are looking for more, make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout prop picks.
Below are my favorite four home run props from MLB games on Saturday, September 12, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/12/2026)
Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340, BetMGM)
Let's start with our first lefty in Detroit. I'm fading my Rockies, but consider it less of a fade and more of me backing an incredibly hot hitter. Greene did everything but homer in Friday night's win, and I'm expecting he'll go deep against Tanner Gordon on Saturday.
RILEY SENDS ONE OUT 💣 pic.twitter.com/fVoM2zgzos
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) September 7, 2026
Coming into Friday night's game, he had posted a 27.8% barrel rate over the last seven days. That's gotten him three homers this week. Quite simply, he's scorching hot with the bat and only striking out at a 16% clip. That's a lot more balls in play, and it's paying off.
For Gordon, it's not that he's pitched terribly. But he has gotten hit hard by lefties this season. They've hit him for a .372 wOBA and 12 homers. While he's been pitching better as of late, Greene's hot streak is too hard to ignore.
For the pitch mix, I'm expecting Gordon to lead mostly with changeups. It's his best pitch and one that Greene's not particularly strong against. But a changeup always needs a four-seamer to play off of. That's the pitch Gordon uses most against lefties, and they've hit six homers off it this season.
Greene, on the other hand, has hit most of his homers off of four-seamers. And if Gordon strays from those two pitches, he'll get Greene a slider. The lefty has hit those off righties for a .397 wOBA this season, giving us two pitches he's going to be very effective against from Gordon's top three.
The matchup aligns well, and no hitter may be making better contact than Greene right now. Let's hope Gordon hangs one.
Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425, Bet365)
We've got another lefty on deck here who's been scorching hot as well. Devers has turned around his season after some early-season struggles, but the past week has been unreal. He's hitting for a 319 wRC+ with three homers and now gets a matchup against a pitcher he's hit well against in Michael King.
DEVERS. AGAIN. UNREAL. 😤 pic.twitter.com/W0M1ld0aXX
— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) September 5, 2026
Let's start with that batter vs pitcher data. Devers is 5-for-11 against King with two homers. While BvP stats are never an end-all-be-all stat, it's always a good sign when the numbers are this positive. It tells me Devers sees King very well, so if we tie that in with a hot streak, then it should ideally mean good things for us.
King has been fairly decent since August, but I think there may be some cracks starting to show. In his last two starts, he's allowed a 51.5% hard-hit rate. Devers, over the past week, is up to a 71.4% hard-hit rate. Over the last two weeks, it's at 65.6%, so this is a continued streak that we may be able to capitalize on.
King should lead with changeups against Devers, but as we mentioned with Gordon, every changeup needs a four-seamer to play off of. Devers has been monstrous against four-seamers this season, hitting 17 homers off of them for a .372 wOBA.
With his familiarity in this matchup, I'm expecting Devers to be able to overcome any pitch mix issues he may face. King's gotten a touch lucky, and we're hoping that luck runs out on Saturday.
