College Football Betting Picks for Week Eight (10/23/2021)

October 21, 2021

Our college football CFB betting picks for Week Eight. Every week, Nick recommends the best CFB bets and top CFB wagers for the college football betting slate.

What a whirlwind season it has been thus far. Its anyone's guess who might make the College Football Playoff at this point, as ranked teams are falling at a rapid pace (such as Coastal Carolina's Wednesday night loss to Appalachian State). Heisman contenders such as Alabama's Bryce Young, Pitt's Kenny Pickett, and Ole Miss' Matt Corral, are starting to separate from the pack and make their second-half push, while programs like Cincinnati, Wake Forest, and to a lesser extent Michigan State find themselves in unusual territory with their success this year and in control of their own destinies.

Last week's picks ended with a disappointing 1-2 record. On Friday night, Marshall and North Texas barely topped the over to start the weekend off with a loss by a half-point. Then, on Saturday, Michigan State's offense suddenly forgot how to play football, winning a slugfest over Big Ten rival Indiana. Lastly, Pitt rolled into Blacksburg and thwarted Virginia Tech in a dominant 28-7 win that easily gave us our only win for the weekend. The season-long record is 13-12.

For Week Eight of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.

South Alabama @ Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) (+13.5)

O/U: 51

Under first-year head coach Kane Wommack's leadership, the South Alabama Jaguars have far exceeded preliminary predictions. Wommack's team has already matched their 2020 win total, with their eyes now firmly set on the Sun Belt title. Transfer quarterback Jake Bentley, who had previous stops at South Carolina and Utah, is completing nearly 69% of his passes, while tossing seven touchdowns and only two interceptions so far. Star receiver Jalen Tolbert will be a household name come next April's NFL draft, and he's averaging six catches and over 120 yards per game. While the offense has made leaps and bounds, the defense - which was Wommack's specialty calling defensive plays for Indiana - has soared to the 21st best scoring defense in the country. Against the best offense they'll see all year, Louisiana, the team held the Ragin' Cajuns to 20 points in a narrow loss.

When Terry Bowden took over the helm this off-season at ULM, expectations were justifiably low, as the Warhawks haven’t been to a bowl game since 2012, and were fresh off an 0-10 record in a forgettable 2020 season. Bowden brought along former Arizona and West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez to orchestrate the offense, and the fruits are already shining through with a surprising 3-3 start, easily surpassing their win projected Vegas win total of 1.5. Chandler Rogers has been a flashy dual threat at quarterback, stepping in after Rodriguez’s son Rhett unfortunately was forced to an ICU unit for injuries sustained in a game. Rogers will typically lean on a trio of pass catchers - Boogie Knight, Zachari Jackson and Jared Sparks. The offense has only mustered one strong performance, which ended with a 31-28 upset victory over Liberty as 32.5-point underdogs. The win was somewhat fluky, as the Warhawks benefited from nearly 100 penalty yards by Liberty, were outgained in yardage, and were the beneficiaries of three timely turnovers. Expecting ULM to suddenly become an offensive juggernaut (even with the 31-point burst, they're averaging just 18.2 points per game, good for 119th in FBS) is unrealistic and a fall from grace should be expected.

If Coach Wommack truly has aspirations to compete for Sun Belt championships, these easy-picking games are the ones he must capitalize on. With two conference losses and games against Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina still on the calendar, the Jaguars will need a strong finish and likely some help with a few losses by Louisiana to make it to the championship game. In the meantime, Jaguars fans can take joy that their team is finally playing competitive football and showing signs of life. In Monroe, coach Bowden has the unenviable task of coaching at the school with the smallest program budget in the entire FBS. Even with financial limitations, the new staff has brought some instant (and unexpected) success on the backs of wins over Deion Sanders' Jackson State, Liberty, and Troy - three solid programs.

Pick: Under 51

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Syracuse at Virginia Tech (-3.5)

O/U: 45.5

Last week's narrow loss to Clemson had Orange fans chomping at the bit but not quite able to capture the program's big win. Coach Dino Babers has had little to be excited during his tenure, outside of a 10-3 year in 2018 that was solely because of an experienced quarterback (Eric Dungey) and a soft schedule. This year's Syracuse team has a solid offense which is led by its rushing attack. Sophomore running back Sean Tucker, and the hogs that lead the way in front of him, has 1,172 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns in the team's 3-4 start. Tucker is joined in the backfield by Mississippi State transfer quarterback Garret Shrader. Shrader has thrown for five touchdowns and three picks, but has done most of the damage with his legs, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and scoring nine touchdowns. The defense is a work-in-process, but there are strong points including defensive end Cody Roscoe and his 7.5 sacks. Junior linebacker Mikel Jones is the heart-and-soul of the defense and as their leading tackler he carries a lot of responsibility if Syracuse hopes to improve their standing on the 57th scoring defense in the country.

The Virginia Tech Hokies were overwhelmed in last week's home loss to Pitt, and head coach Justin Fuente's seat is getting very warm. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister has never been mistaken for a great passing quarterback, but last week's 11-for-32 passing should have fans worried as the depth behind him is non-existent (no offense to the lightly recruited Knox Kadum). Burmeister's real damage comes on the ground, where he teams with a committee of running backs, chiefly Raheem Blackshear and Jalen Holston. The Hokies do have two excellent receivers in Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson, but they can't be effective if their quarterback can't get them the ball. The defense started the year strong, but on back-to-back weeks looked lost for stretches against Pitt and Notre Dame. The Hokies gave up 21 first-half points last week, and the Panthers sought to run out the clock eating away an 11-minute drive in the fourth quarter that made the defensive performance look better than it was. If coach Fuente has any hopes of saving his job this year, he'll need a step up from both the offense and the defense starting with this week's game.

Both coaches have a lot riding on the line and find themselves on the hot seat spectrum. Fuente's seat is noticeably warmer than Babers', who could probably save his job with a five or six win year. Expectations in Blacksburg are always high after the fans experienced such lengthy success under Frank Beamer. With so much to lose, both teams should be aggressive and the defenses have shown they can be privy to some big plays.

Pick: Over 45.5

Louisiana State (LSU) at Mississippi (Ole Miss) (-9.5)

O/U: 75.5

Coach Ed Orgeron won the national title in 2019, but this week it was announced that he and the program would part ways at the end of the year, likely due to his mishandling of various off-the-field issues. The 2021 Tigers have been a difficult team to figure out, with quarterback Max Johnson piling up a gaudy 20-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio, but the team only starting 4-3. Star sophomore receiver, who had 38 receptions, 508 yards and nine touchdowns in the first five games, suffered a season-ending injury and will not be available. Four of the next five top receivers are freshmen, and the inexperience brings with it untimely drops. In just two of the team's games, LSU has scored over 35 points, as the offense struggled in three straight weeks against Mississippi State, Auburn and Kentucky. While Ole Miss' defense is hardly world-beating, they did prove last week to being able to shut down what has become a competent Tennessee offense.

Heisman hopeful Matt Corral struggled through the air in last week's win over Tennessee, but he made up for it with 195 rushing yards as the Rebels snuck out of Knoxville intact and hope to see no mustard bottles on the field this week. Coach Lane Kiffin's team, who look poised to surpass their 7.5-win total that we wrote about in August, is scoring 43.7 points per game and finally seeing some defensive strides being made. Corral's 14-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio, along with his eight touchdowns on the ground, has him firmly in the discussion for this year's Heisman trophy. Kiffin has turned to a triumvirate of running backs, with Henry Parrish, Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy combining for 1,130 total yards and 11 touchdowns. Despite losing his top receiver Elijah Moore to the New York Jets, the Rebels rebuilt their passing attack with Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo leading the way. Additionally, the team has relied on passing to the trio of running backs heavily. The defense has been largely poor, but they finally checked in with a good performance in last week's 31-26 road win at Tennessee in hostile territory.

With the fan-throwing-debris debacle last week in Neyland Stadium behind them, the Ole Miss Rebels sit at 5-1 and in second place in the SEC West. They'll need to run the table and get one more Alabama regular season loss to have a chance at representing the SEC West in the conference championship game. Meanwhile, LSU is just 4-3, with a lame duck coaching staff and a big-time recruiting class for 2022 that is beginning to look elsewhere for other options. These teams are trending in opposite directions, and it will be fascinating to see how this game turns out.

Pick: Under 75.5

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