College Football Betting Expert Picks for Week Twelve (11/21/2020)

November 18, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and top recommendations for Week 12. Every week, Nick reviews some of the best bets and wagers for the college football slate.

In Week Eleven, our fortunes continued with the fourth consecutive 3-0 week. Heading into the final weekend of games before Thanksgiving, the recent performance leaves us with much to be thankful for.

In the early noon game this past weekend, Miami managed to hold off the Virginia Tech Hokies as a 2.5-point underdog. At 3:00pm, the UTSA Roadrunners then provided win #2 with an easy rout of their in-state rivals at UTEP. In the late game, Oregon overcame a sluggish start to overcome a young, but impressive Washington State squad. This 12-0 run over the past four weeks improves the season-long record to 22-8.

Week Twelve's list of games should have bettors licking their chops with the amount of action available. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

Clemson at Florida State (+35.5)

O/U: 63

Coach Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers will certainly be on a mission to pursue any style points that they can rack up before the anticipated ACC Championship rematch with Notre Dame on December 19. Star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who should start looking for apartments in New York pretty soon, is returning after a two week absence caused by a positive COVID-19 test. Freshman DJ Uiagalelei stepped in admirably against Notre Dame and Boston College, causing Clemson fans to breathe a sigh of relief for when the time comes that Lawrence departs for the NFL. With Lawrence and Travis Etienne - the ACC's all-time rushing leader - the Clemson offense has hummed to the tune of 40.4 points per game. With a win on Saturday, Trevor Lawrence will tie Rodney Williams, Tajh Boyd, and Deshaun Watson for the record for the most career wins as a starting quarterback at Clemson.

The 2020 season has been an unmitigated disaster for first-year head coach Mike Norvell in Tallahassee, Florida. The team just received word that defensive tackle Marvin Wilson, who is likely a top NFL draft pick in the spring, will miss the remainder of the season with an injury. Additionally, star receiver Tamorrion Terry left the team to begin preparing for the draft, and former starting quarterback James Blackman announced his intention to transfer. 

The talent disparity between these two teams is vast, and expecting Clemson to put up a flurry of points is expected. However, expecting Florida State to be kept off the board is unreasonable with the dual-threat quarterback Jordan Travis leading the way. The Clemson defense has given up 21 points or more in each of its last three games, and if Florida State can get at least 2 touchdowns, it will be difficult for Clemson to cover such a large spread.

Pick: Florida State +35.5

Georgia State at South Alabama (+3.5)

O/U: 58.5

The Georgia State Panthers put quite a scare into the Appalachian State Mountaineers last week in Boone, North Carolina, but were unable to hold onto the close upset opportunity. Entering the game with a mediocre 3-4 record, the Panthers have had a few opportunities slip through their fingers, including the 4-point loss to Appalachian State and a 3-point loss to Louisiana (Lafayette). On offense, freshman quarterback Cornelius Brown IV has had a strong campaign (1,340 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions) and looks to have a bright future in Atlanta. Brown's top target this year has been Sam Pinckney, aided by junior receiver Cornelious McCoy. The offense averages 33.3 points per game, and should have no problem putting up a flurry of points in Mobile. Surprisingly, Georgia State has never won in any of the 3 matchups against South Alabama on the road, while winning 4 of 5 at home.

The South Alabama Jaguars are chasing their first .500 or better season since 2013. Success is not synonymous with the Jaguars program, something that head coach Steve Campbell is hoping to change. With wins over Southern Miss, Texas State, and Louisiana-Monroe, the team took advantage of the "low-hanging fruit" on the schedule, and was competitive in losses to Tulane and Georgia Southern. Sophomore quarterback Desmond Trotter, when healthy, has paced the team on offense with his ability to pass with efficiency (9 touchdowns to 3 interceptions) and take off and run when nothing is there. Trotter's top target is Jalen Tolbert, who had a major breakout early in the season and has 44 catches and 5 touchdowns. The Jaguars offense has stalled at times, averaging only 20.9 points per game, as result of an anemic rushing attack.

This Sun Belt clash should be an exciting tilt between two teams that are clearly on the rise in the conference. Georgia State has the built-in recruiting advantage in the Atlanta metro area, and in recent years that has shown itself with more consistent on-field play. While the Trotter-to-Tolbert connection does show plenty of promise, there are too many holes throughout the rest of the roster to trust the Jaguars at this point in time.

Pick: Georgia State -3.5

#20 Southern California (USC) at Utah (+3)

O/U: 57.5

USC has opened its season with a pair of closer than expected wins over the Arizona schools, causing some concern. The Trojans' offense has been sharp, spearheaded by sophomore quarterback Kedon Slovis, and his two star receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns, all of whom will be playing on Sundays. When it comes to night games, USC thrives with an all-time 72.6% winning percentage in games played 5pm or later. In Utah's banner season last year, USC was the only regular season opponent to vanquish the Utes behind their backup quarterback Matt Fink.

The Utah Utes have yet to play this season, with their first two games being postponed due to the Coronavirus. Finally, things look to be trending in the positive (pun intended) direction, as they aim for their opener this weekend. Long-time coach Kyle Whittingham had arguably his most talented team last season, and was probably a win in the Pac-12 championship game away from Utah's first appearance in the College Football Playoff. Gone are quarterback Tyler Huntley, running back Zack Moss, and nine defensive starters (five of whom were drafted in the 2020 NFL draft). The new signal caller will be one of the triumvirate atop the depth chart - former walk-on Drew Lisk, South Carolina graduate transfer Jake Bentley, and highly-touted sophomore Cameron Rising. With an entirely new defense and a new quarterback, there may be an adjustment period in Salt Lake City.

Utah is still scrambling with contact tracing and some lingering positive COVID-19 student-athletes, which might cause nearly 20% of the roster to be unavailable on Saturday. With a few games under their belt so far, USC will have the clear edge and Slovis will try to make his mark early on against a young, new and unproven Utah defense.

Pick: USC -3