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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 New York Giants' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that managed to maintain their core coaching staff this offseason was the New York Giants, with head coach Joe Judge, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham all returning for the 2021-22 season.
Today's article will be the final entry of the team previews this offseason and looks at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players, trying to pinpoint the Giants players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Giants coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Giants' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Joe Judge
Joe Judge primarily comes from a special teams background, spending 2015 to 2019 as the New England Patriots special teams coordinator. But because he also did spend a year as a wide receivers coach of the Patriots back in 2019, we will include him in the 'Offense' section of this article. Please focus more on offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and his statistics if you are looking to make projections for the New York Giants offense.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Giants | 16 | 32.31 | 208.5 | 0.75 | 4.63 | 27.19 | 0.06 |
| Judge's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 16 | 32.31 | 208.5 | 0.75 | 4.63 | 27.19 | 0.06 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yards | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Giants | 16 | 19.38 | 78.5 | 0.63 | 3.63 | 5.19 | 24.88 | 0.13 |
| Judge's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 16 | 19.38 | 78.5 | 0.63 | 3.63 | 5.19 | 24.88 | 0.13 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Giants | 16 | 11.06 | 17.5 | 132.88 | 0.56 |
| Judge's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 16 | 11.06 | 17.5 | 132.88 | 0.56 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Giants | 16 | 5.38 | 8.5 | 50.75 | 0.06 |
| Judge's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 16 | 5.38 | 8.5 | 50.75 | 0.06 |
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Jason Garrett
Jason Garrett has been the New York Giants offensive coordinator since 2020. Prior to taking this role, Garrett spent 13 seasons with the Dallas Cowboys as an offensive coordinator from 2007 to 2010 and as the head coach from 2010 to 2019. Given Jason Garrett's offensive background, let's take a look at some of his team's offensive statistics over the course of his 223 game career as either an offensive coordinator or head coach.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Cowboys | 16 | 37.31 | 306.38 | 1.88 | 3.25 | 17.31 | 0.19 |
| 2020 Giants | 15 | 32.33 | 207.67 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 28.8 | 0.07 |
| Garrett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 223 | 34.11 | 257.18 | 1.70 | 2.74 | 11.39 | 0.13 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Cowboys | 16 | 24.19 | 113.25 | 0.88 | 4.31 | 5.69 | 32.94 | 0.19 |
| 2020 Giants | 15 | 19.47 | 78.8 | 0.67 | 3.67 | 5.33 | 25 | 0.13 |
| Garrett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 223 | 23.35 | 104.31 | 0.64 | 4.36 | 5.58 | 34.39 | 0.09 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Cowboys | 16 | 14 | 22.31 | 217.19 | 1.25 |
| 2020 Giants | 15 | 11.13 | 17.4 | 132.53 | 0.6 |
| Garrett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 223 | 11.41 | 18.78 | 158.43 | 1.22 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Cowboys | 16 | 5.94 | 7.88 | 56.25 | 0.44 |
| 2020 Giants | 15 | 5.33 | 8.47 | 50.13 | 0.07 |
| Garrett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 223 | 6.09 | 8.64 | 62.91 | 0.38 |
Joe Judge And Jason Garrett Takeaways & Expectations
As stated above, Joe Judge has worked pretty much exclusively on special teams prior to becoming the New York Giants head coach, so it's more important to pay attention to Jason Garrett's historical tendencies since he will be the team's offensive play-caller once again in 2021. Over the course of Jason Garrett's 223 game career as a play-caller, his offenses have averaged 34.11 passing attempts per game. In the past two years, Garrett's Cowboys attempted 37.31 passes per game in 2019, and his Giants attempted 32.33 passes per game in 2020.
But besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of Jason Garrett's quarterbacks over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Over the course of his career, Garrett's quarterbacks have averaged 2.74 carries per game.
The good news with the rushing usage is Garrett has seen his quarterbacks run significantly more in recent years, with the Giants' quarterbacks averaging 4.8 carries per game in 2020. Under Garrett, Daniel Jones is a risky investment because while he has rushing upside he's likely to be a low-volume passer relative to other quarterbacks. If you believe he can improve his efficiency and push the ball downfield more with his passing attempts he will have some last-round fantasy sleeper appeal. If you don't believe he can do that, he should not be drafted in any non 2QB league.
Looking at the running back position, Jason Garrett has been solid in utilizing the group. Over the course of his 223 game career as an offensive play-caller, his running backs have averaged 0.64 rushing touchdowns per game - which is fairly average. In addition, Jason Garrett has provided his tailbacks with 23.35 carries per game - which is a little above average.
Looking at the raw numbers, Garrett has given his entire running back room an above-average number of carries over the course of his career. And last season was the second-fewest number of carries Jason Garrett has ever given to a running back room, with only 2013 having fewer carries. Based on this information, it seems likely that the Giants running back room gets a little more rushing work in 2021 - especially with star running back Saquon Barkley returning from injury.
But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that Garrett has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is Jason Garrett typically rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Looking at the graph above, Jason Garrett utilized more of a committee approach early in his career (2007-2012) but has largely shifted to more of a bell-cow approach in recent years. In fact, in every year from 2013 to 2019, Garrett's lead back on the season saw at least 217 carries with four of those seasons topping 300+ carries. Based on this information, Saquon Barkley should see a heavy workload on the ground in 2021.
The final aspect we should look at concerning Jason Garrett's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Garrett's running back room has averaged 5.58 targets per game.
This career average is subpar relative to other play-callers. But perhaps most concerning is that he doesn't even have one year where he absolutely fed his tailbacks in the passing game - in fact, Jason Garrett's running back room has yet to get more than seven targets per game in a single season over the course of the 14 seasons he's been a play-caller. Overall, Saquon Barkley should see a healthy enough workload to finish as an RB1, but he probably will not get the receiving workload to potentially finish as the number one overall running back in fantasy.
Looking at the wide receiver position, Garrett has provided his wide receivers with 18.78 targets per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
This usage is below-average relative to other NFL play-callers. Based on this information, the Giants may struggle to have multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers in 2021 despite having a good amount of talent at the position.
Finally, Garrett's historical usage of tight ends has been fantastic. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Jason Garrett's tight end room has averaged 8.64 targets per game.
In fact, this career average is slated to be one of the best marks in the league entering the 2021 season among active offensive coordinators and play-callers.
Based on this information, Evan Engram could be a great bounce-back candidate in your fantasy leagues for 2021 if he can improve on his drop issues.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Daniel Jones, Mike Glennon, Saquon Barkley, Devontae Booker, Ryquell Armstead, Corey Clement, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Kadarius Toney, John Ross, Dante Pettis, Evan Engram, and Kyle Rudolph
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Patrick Graham
Patrick Graham has been the New York Giants defensive coordinator since 2020. He also has previously served as a defensive coordinator for the 2019 Miami Dolphins. Because of his defensive background, let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Graham's time in a defensive coordinator role.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Dolphins | 16 | 30.88 | 262.38 | 135.38 | 65.81 | 6.04 | 1 |
| 2020 Giants | 16 | 22.31 | 237.94 | 111.38 | 65.38 | 5.34 | 1.38 |
| Graham's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 32 | 26.59 | 250.16 | 123.38 | 65.59 | 5.69 | 1.19 |
While Patrick Graham's defense for the 2019 Miami Dolphins was below average (largely due to a lack of talent), he did a phenomenal job as the New York Giants defensive coordinator last year. Under Patrick Graham in 2020, the New York Giants defense was above average in points allowed per game, passing yards given up per game, rushing yards given up per game, yards given up per play, and turnovers forced per game. While there is always the concern that he could be a one-year wonder as a defensive coordinator, the defense certainly looked legit and Graham was even slated to get some head coaching interviews before he inked an extension to remain the Giants defensive coordinator. Based on this information, the New York Giants D/ST will likely be slightly above average in 2021 but should be viewed as more of a streaming option rather than a defense you hold all year.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Thomas McGaughey - Thomas McGaughey has been the New York Giants special teams coordinator since 2018. He's been coaching since 1998 and has previously worked as a special teams coordinator for the New York Jets (2014), San Francisco 49ers (2015), and Carolina Panthers (2016-2017).
QB Coach: Jerry Schuplinski - Jerry Schuplinski has been the New York Giants quarterbacks coach since 2020. He has been coaching football since 2000 and previously spent time as an assistant quarterbacks coach for the New England Patriots (2016-2018) and Miami Dolphins (2019).
RB Coach: Burton Burns - Burton Burns has been the New York Giants running backs coach since 2020. He has been coaching since 1981 and previously served as a running backs coach at the college level for Clemson (1999-2006) and Alabama (2007-2017).
WR Coach: Tyke Tolbert - Tyke Tolbert has been the New York Giants wide receivers coach since 2018. He's been coaching since 1994 and previously served as a wide receivers coach at the NFL level for the Arizona Cardinals (2003), Buffalo Bills (2004-2009), Carolina Panthers (2010), and Denver Broncos (2011-2017).
TE Coach: Derek Dooley - Derek Dooley will be the New York Giants tight ends coach in 2021 after serving as a senior offensive assistant in 2020. He's been coaching football at the college and NFL levels since 1996 and has previously served as a tight ends coach at the NFL level for the Miami Dolphins (2005-2006).
OL Coach: Rob Sale - Rob Sale will be the New York Giants' new offensive line coach in 2021. This will be his first NFL coaching job, but he previously coached offensive lines at the college level for McNeese State (2012-2014), Georgia (2015), Louisiana-Monroe (2016), Arizona State (2017), and Louisiana (2018-2020).
DL Coach: Sean Spencer - Sean Spencer has been the Giants' defensive line coach since 2020. He previously served as a defensive line coach at the college level for Trinity (2000), Massachusetts (2001-2003, 2007-2008), Holy Cross (2004), Hofstra (2006), Bowling Green (2009-2010), Vanderbilt (2011-2013), and Penn State (2014-2019).
LB Coach: Kevin Sherrer - Kevin Sherrer will serve as the linebackers coach after serving as the inside linebackers coach in 2020. Prior to joining the Giants, he coached linebackers at the college level for Georgia (2014-2017) and Tennessee (2018-2019).
DB Coach: Jerome Henderson - Jerome Henderson has been the New York Giants defensive backs coach since 2020. He has previously served as a defensive backs coach for the New York Jets (2008), Cleveland Browns (2009-2011), and Dallas Cowboys (2012-2015) as well as the defensive passing game coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons (2016-2019). He also played cornerback at the NFL level for the New England Patriots (1991-1993, 1996), Buffalo Bills (1993-1994), Philadelphia Eagles (1995), and New York Jets (1997-1998).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons
NFC North: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, and Washington Football Team
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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