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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Los Angeles Rams' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
The Los Angeles Rams saw former defensive coordinator Brandon Staley leave to be the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, but otherwise, they will be bringing back many of the key coaching staff members from 2020. Sean McVay will return as the Rams head coach and Kevin O'Connell will be back as the team's offensive coordinator. Raheem Morris will be the new defensive coordinator, replacing Brandon Staley.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Rams players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Rams coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Rams' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Los Angeles Rams fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at a key member of the Los Angeles Rams' previous coaching staff: former defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Staley
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 18.5 | 190.69 | 91.25 | 61.81 | 4.56 | 1.38 |
|
Staley's Career Averages (DC/HC)
|
16 | 18.5 | 190.69 | 91.25 | 61.81 | 4.56 | 1.38 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Sean McVay
Sean McVay has been the Los Angeles Rams head coach since 2017. Prior to joining the Rams, McVay spent three seasons (2014-2016) as the Washington Redskins offensive coordinator. Given McVay's offensive background in coaching and his role as the team's primary offensive play-caller, let's take a look at what his offenses have done in the past at the NFL level to get a better understanding of how the Rams offense may look in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Rams | 16 | 39.5 | 291.81 | 1.38 | 2.19 | 1.94 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 36.88 | 261.44 | 1.25 | 3.56 | 9.69 | 0.25 |
| McVay's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 112 | 35.87 | 279.54 | 1.56 | 2.71 | 6.58 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Rams | 16 | 20.88 | 79.25 | 1.06 | 2.31 | 3.81 | 16.25 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 24 | 104.25 | 0.75 | 3.13 | 4.44 | 27.75 | 0.13 |
| McVay's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 112 | 22.34 | 97.16 | 0.80 | 3.99 | 5.41 | 37.26 | 0.21 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Rams | 16 | 15.56 | 24.56 | 201.13 | 0.94 |
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 15.81 | 22.81 | 171.75 | 0.75 |
| McVay's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 112 | 13.76 | 21.5 | 179.74 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Rams | 16 | 6.88 | 9.75 | 73 | 0.31 |
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 5.56 | 7.88 | 61.94 | 0.38 |
| McVay's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 112 | 5.59 | 7.82 | 61.03 | 0.37 |
Sean McVay Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of Sean McVay's 112 game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his offenses have averaged 35.87 passing attempts per game. In his past two years with the Rams, the usage has been a little higher than that, with the Rams attempting 39.5 passes per game in 2019 and 36.88 passes per game in 2020. This passing volume is slightly more than the amount an average team provides, which bodes well for Matthew Stafford's fantasy value in 2021.
But besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of McVay's quarterbacks over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Over the course of his career, McVay's quarterbacks have averaged 2.71 carries per game.
Sean McVay's offense historically has been slightly above-average in providing passing opportunities for his team and given his quarterbacks a slightly below-average number of rushing attempts. Overall, Matthew Stafford should be a solid value in fantasy leagues and be valued in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 range of fantasy drafts.
Looking at the running back position, Sean McVay has been solid in utilizing the group. Over the course of his career, McVay's tailbacks have averaged 22.34 carries and 0.80 rushing touchdowns per game.
On the ground, both of these numbers are above average for a running back room and encouraging to see if you are rostering one of the Rams running backs in your fantasy league.
But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that McVay has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is McVay rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Examining the data, Sean McVay has preferred to take more of a bell-cow approach at the position nearly every single season he's been an offensive coordinator or head coach - with the exception of 2020. This is a great sign for Darrell Henderson's potential usage on the ground in 2021.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Sean McVay's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, McVay's running back room has averaged 5.41 targets per game - which is below average.
Perhaps most concerning about this information is that it isn't just one year he has been below-average in utilizing his running backs in the passing game - it's every year he's had a significant say in the offense. This is a little frustrating to see if you are rostering Darrell Henderson in your fantasy league. But overall, taking into account all three factors we talked about today, it's clear that McVay helps make this a solid situation to invest in.
Looking at the wide receiver position, McVay's offense has provided his wide receivers with 21.5 targets per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
This career average is above-average compared to other play-callers, and he's utilized the position even more in recent years with the Rams wide receiver room averaging 24.56 targets per game in 2019 and 22.81 targets per game in 2020. This is great news if you are rostering one of the Rams receivers and means that there's room for multiple Rams wideouts to be fantasy-relevant in 2021.
Lastly, McVay's historical usage of tight ends is pretty good. Over the course of his 112 game career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Sean McVay's tight end room has averaged 7.82 targets per game.
This career average is very encouraging for the Rams' tight ends in 2021 and shows that there may be some breakout potential from Tyler Higbee now that Gerald Everett has gone to Seattle. Overall, in McVay's offense, the Rams' tight ends should be a solid investment for the 2021 season.
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Kevin O'Connell
Kevin O'Connell has been the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator since 2020. O'Connell has prior experience as an offensive coordinator, spending the 2019 NFL season as the Washington Redskins offensive coordinator. Let's take a look at some statistics from the offenses that O'Connell has coordinated.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Washington | 16 | 29.94 | 200.31 | 1.13 | 1.94 | 7.94 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 36.88 | 261.44 | 1.25 | 3.56 | 9.69 | 0.25 |
| O'Connell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 33.41 | 230.88 | 1.19 | 2.75 | 8.81 | 0.16 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Washington | 16 | 19.69 | 85.69 | 0.44 | 4.69 | 6.44 | 41.44 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 24 | 104.25 | 0.75 | 3.13 | 4.44 | 27.75 | 0.13 |
| O'Connell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 21.84 | 94.97 | 0.59 | 3.91 | 5.44 | 34.59 | 0.09 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Washington | 16 | 11.19 | 17.94 | 129.69 | 0.88 |
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 15.81 | 22.81 | 171.75 | 0.75 |
| O'Connell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 13.5 | 20.38 | 150.72 | 0.81 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Washington | 16 | 2.75 | 4.56 | 29.19 | 0.19 |
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 5.56 | 7.88 | 61.94 | 0.38 |
| O'Connell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 4.16 | 6.22 | 45.56 | 0.28 |
Kevin O'Connell Takeaways & Expectations
While Sean McVay is expected to be the primary offensive play-caller of the Los Angeles Rams in 2021, it's also important that we look at the type of offenses his offensive coordinator, Kevin O'Connell has previously been a part of as an offensive coordinator just in case he needs to fill in for McVay at any point next season.
In Kevin O'Connell's 32 game career as an offensive coordinator, his team's offenses have averaged 33.41 passing attempts per game - which is below the league average. This means that if O'Connell takes on play-calling duties at any point during the 2021 season, we could see a slight decrease in the number of passing attempts from the offense that McVay has tended to roll with. In addition, O'Connell's quarterbacks have averaged just 2.75 carries per game over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator.
Overall, Matthew Stafford should have fantasy value whether it's Sean McVay or Kevin O'Connell calling the plays based on his pure talent. But for the team to maximize the number of opportunities for Stafford and put him in the best position to succeed, McVay is going to call the plays.
Jumping to the running back position, Kevin O'Connell has generally been mediocre in providing the position work. O'Connell's running backs have averaged 21.84 carries and 0.59 rushing touchdowns per game over the course of his 32 game career as an offensive coordinator.
This usage shows that if Kevin O'Connell needs to take over offensive play-calling duties at any point this year, the team may feed their running backs less with Kevin O'Connell than it would with Sean McVay. But besides the number of carries going to the entire running back room, we also need to consider how much of the work on the ground O'Connell is giving to one tailback versus multiple backs.
The Rams took a running back by committee in 2020, but in O'Connell's one year as Washington's offensive coordinator, he gave lead back Adrian Peterson 211 carries (66.98% of the season running back carries). This shows that O'Connell is willing to be versatile between the bell-cow and hot hand approaches, and would take the approach best suited for his team's personnel if he were the primary play-caller.
Finally, O'Connell gives his running backs a below-average amount of work in the passing game with his tailbacks seeing 5.44 targets per game.
This shows that regardless of who calls the plays on the Rams, the team will likely not feature the tailbacks very much in the passing game. Overall, the general number of touches for the Rams running backs would remain largely the same if McVay misses time and O'Connell had to take over play-calling duties at any point this season. However, the efficiency and quality of touches for the group would almost certainly take a hit if play-calling duties needed to be temporarily be passed on to O'Connell at any point during the 2021 season.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, over the course of his 32 game career as an offensive coordinator, Kevin O'Connell has seen his wide receiver room average 20.38 targets per game.
The career average gives the impression that Kevin O'Connell is slightly above-average in providing the wide receiver position with plenty of opportunities. But there's a big difference between the number of targets per game the position saw under him in 2019 with Washington versus 2020 with Los Angeles. In 2019, Washington's wide receiver room averaged just 17.94 targets per game - which is below-average. In 2020, the Rams wide receiver room averaged a healthy 22.81 targets per game - which is well above-average. Overall, it's a good thing that Sean McVay is the team's primary play-caller so we don't have to question how much work the Rams wide receivers will get.
Lastly, looking at the tight end position, Kevin O'Connell hasn't utilized them as much as Sean McVay, with O'Connell's tight end room averaging 6.22 targets per game.
Looking at the graph above, if you are rostering one of the Rams tight ends in your fantasy league you are happy to see that Sean McVay is the team's primary play-caller and not Kevin O'Connell since McVay is more likely to feature his tight ends in the passing game.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Matthew Stafford, John Wolford, Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson Jr., Jake Funk, Xavier Jones, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson, Tutu Atwell, Johnny Mundt, and Tyler Higbee
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Raheem Morris
Raheem Morris started the 2020 season off as the Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator but became the team's interim head coach five games in after Dan Quinn was fired. Morris also previously spent time as a head coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2009 to 2011. Because of his defensive background let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Morris's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2011 Buccaneers | 16 | 30.88 | 238.38 | 156.06 | 62.63 | 6.30 | 1.5 |
| 2020 Falcons | 16 | 25.88 | 293.56 | 104.81 | 64.63 | 6.16 | 1.31 |
| Morris's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 64 | 25.41 | 235.08 | 137.69 | 63.53 | 5.87 | 1.59 |
Raheem Morris will be working with the most talented defense of his career in 2021 with the Rams, but his previous track record isn't the most inspiring. In 2020, the Falcons were below-average in points allowed per game, passing yards given up per game (by a lot), and yards per play under Morris. Looking at his career averages, his teams have generally been below average in points allowed per game, rushing yards given up per game, and yards given up per play, but above average in turnovers forced per game. Given the Rams defense was number one in the league under Brandon Staley last year, there's nowhere to go but down in 2021. Overall, the Rams are probably still a top-tier D/ST in fantasy leagues just based on their pure talent, but if you are expecting last year's production you will likely be a little disappointed.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Joe DeCamillis - Joe DeCamillis is the Rams' new special teams coordinator in 2021. He's previously been a special teams coach for the Denver Broncos (1988-1992), New York Giants (1993-1996), Atlanta Falcons (1997-2003), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2007-2008) as well as a special teams coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys (2009-2012), Chicago Bears (2013-2014), Denver Broncos (2015-2016), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2017-2020).
RB Coach: Thomas Brown - Thomas Brown has been the Los Angeles Rams running backs coach since 2020. He's been coaching since 2011 and has served as a running backs coach at the collegiate and NFL levels since 2012. Brown will also serve as the team's assistant head coach in 2021.
WR Coach: Eric Yarber - Eric Yarber has been the Los Angeles Rams wide receivers coach since 2017. He's been coaching since 1996 and previously been a wide receivers coach at the NFL level for the San Francisco 49ers (2003-2004) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2010-2011).
TE Coach: Wes Phillips - Wes Phillips has been the Los Angeles Rams tight ends coach since 2019. He's been coaching at the collegiate and NFL levels since 2003 and has previously served as a tight ends coach for the Dallas Cowboys (2013) and Washington Redskins (2014-2018). Phillips will also serve as the Rams' passing game coordinator in 2021.
OL Coach: Kevin Carberry - Kevin Carberry will be the new offensive line coach in 2021 after the Rams decided to move on from former offensive line coach Aaron Kromer. The 38-year-old Carberry has been coaching football since 2007 and most recently served as the run game coordinator and offensive line coach at Stanford.
DL Coach: Eric Henderson - Eric Henderson has been the defensive line coach for the Los Angeles Rams since 2019. He has been coaching since 2012, notably spending time as the assistant defensive line coach with the Los Angeles Chargers (2017-2018) prior to joining the Rams. Henderson will also serve as the run game coordinator in 2021.
LB Coach: Chris Shula - Chris Shula has been with the Los Angeles Rams since 2017, but 2021 will be his first year as the team's linebackers coach after previously serving as the assistant linebackers coach (2017-2018) and outside linebackers coach (2019-2020).
Secondary Coach: Ejiro Evero - Ejiro Evero has been with the Los Angeles Rams since 2017, serving as a safeties coach from 2017 to 2020 before becoming the defensive passing game coordinator and secondary coach in 2021. He has also previously spent time coaching in a variety of roles for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2007-2009), San Francisco 49ers (2011-2015), and Green Bay Packers (2016).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons
NFC North: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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