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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Green Bay Packers coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
The Green Bay Packers decided to fire former defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, but otherwise, they will be bringing back many of the key coaching staff members from 2020. Matt LaFleur will return as the Packers head coach and Nathaniel Hackett will be back as the team's offensive coordinator. Joe Barry will be the new defensive coordinator, replacing Mike Pettine.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Packers players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Packers coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Packers' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Green Bay Packers' fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at what kind of production former defensive coordinator Mike Pettine got out of the Packers defense in his time as the defensive coordinator. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new defensive coordinator is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 19.56 | 232.56 | 120.06 | 62.38 | 5.65 | 1.56 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 23.06 | 221.19 | 112.81 | 60.88 | 5.49 | 1.13 |
| Pettine's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 160 | 21.98 | 211.3 | 118.59 | 63.36 | 5.21 | 1.58 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Matt LaFleur
Matt LaFleur has been the Green Bay Packers head coach since 2019. Prior to joining the Packers, LaFleur served as an offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams (2017) and Tennessee Titans (2018). Let's take a look at the performance of LaFleur's offenses over the course of his 64 game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role to gain better insight into how the Packers' offense could look in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 35.81 | 251.06 | 1.63 | 3.19 | 11 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 32.88 | 268.69 | 3 | 3.19 | 8.75 | 0.19 |
| LaFleur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 64 | 32.09 | 243.66 | 1.84 | 3.27 | 11.28 | 0.11 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 22.19 | 98.69 | 1.06 | 5.88 | 7.56 | 47.25 | 0.5 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 23.81 | 120.38 | 0.81 | 5.69 | 7.19 | 43.5 | 0.19 |
| LaFleur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 64 | 22.91 | 104.75 | 0.91 | 5.20 | 6.59 | 43.64 | 0.28 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 12 | 19.63 | 153.81 | 0.81 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 12.69 | 18.13 | 172.75 | 1.81 |
| LaFleur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 64 | 11.59 | 18.31 | 150.98 | 1.06 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 3.94 | 5.88 | 43.94 | 0.31 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 4.81 | 5.94 | 52.81 | 1 |
| LaFleur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 64 | 4 | 5.72 | 46.25 | 0.48 |
Matt LaFleur Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of Matt LaFleur's 64 game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his offenses have averaged just 32.09 passing attempts per game. In his past two years with the Packers, the usage has been a little higher than that, with the Packers attempting 35.81 passes per game in 2019 and 32.88 passes per game in 2020. This low volume passing usage means that the Packers starting quarterback will have to be more efficient than the average quarterback in order to put up big passing numbers.
But besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of LaFleur's quarterbacks over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Over the course of his career, LaFleur's quarterbacks have averaged 3.27 carries per game.
Overall, Matt LaFleur's offense historically has limited the number of passing opportunities for his team and given his quarterbacks a fairly average number of rushing attempts. This lower volume means that you have to have a lot of belief in the talent of LaFleur's starting quarterback (like Aaron Rodgers in 2020) in order to expect a top-tier fantasy finish.
Looking at the running back position, Matt LaFleur has been phenomenal in utilizing the group. Over the course of his career, his running backs have averaged 0.91 rushing touchdowns per game - which is above-average. In addition, LaFleur has provided his tailbacks with 22.91 carries per game - which is a little above average.
With no outliers in usage in the graph above clearly, we can expect LaFleur to feed his backs on the ground. This is very encouraging to see if you are rostering one of the Green Bay Packers' running backs in your fantasy league.
But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that LaFleur has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is LaFleur rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Examining the data, Matt LaFleur not only gives his tailbacks a lot of carries he also leans towards more of a bell-cow approach on the ground - with his lead back on the season receiving 279 carries in 2017 (Todd Gurley), 215 carries in 2018 (Derrick Henry), 236 carries in 2019 (Aaron Jones), and 201 carries in 2020 (Aaron Jones). This is a great sign for Aaron Jones's usage once again in 2021 and he should see a bulk of the carries.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Matt LaFleur's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, LaFleur's running back room has averaged 6.59 targets per game - which is fairly mediocre.
The bread and butter of Matt LaFleur's offenses have been the running back utilization, with an above-average number of opportunities provided on the ground and an average number of opportunities provided through the air. Overall, based on this information the Packers' lead running back will have RB1 upside and be a solid draft target in your fantasy league.
Looking at the wide receiver position, LaFleur's offense has provided his wide receivers with 18.31 targets per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
This usage is below-average relative to other NFL play-callers. Based on this information, outside of Davante Adams the Green Bay Packers may struggle to produce a fantasy-relevant wide receiver for the 2021 season in LaFleur's offense.
Finally, LaFleur's historical usage of tight ends is a little subpar. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Matt LaFleur's tight end room has averaged 5.72 targets per game.
This career average is a little discouraging - especially if you are rostering Robert Tonyan in your fantasy league. Overall, Tonyan's talent should keep him somewhat fantasy relevant in 2021, but he's got a bit of an uphill battle to becoming an elite option at the position in LaFleur's offensive scheme.
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett
Nathaniel Hackett was hired to be the Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator back in 2019. Prior to joining the Packers in this role, he had previously spent two seasons as the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator (2013-2014) and 36 games as the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator (2016-2018). Let's take a look at the performance of some of Hackett's offenses over the course of his 100 game career as an offensive coordinator to see if we can get some insight into what input he may have for the Packers offense in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 35.81 | 251.06 | 1.63 | 3.19 | 11 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 32.88 | 268.69 | 3 | 3.19 | 8.75 | 0.19 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 100 | 34.63 | 240.14 | 1.6 | 3.59 | 14.99 | 0.14 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 22.19 | 98.69 | 1.06 | 5.88 | 7.56 | 47.25 | 0.5 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 23.81 | 120.38 | 0.81 | 5.69 | 7.19 | 43.5 | 0.19 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 100 | 24.69 | 105.5 | 0.69 | 5.97 | 7.98 | 47.18 | 0.23 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 12 | 19.63 | 153.81 | 0.81 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 12.69 | 18.13 | 172.75 | 1.81 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 100 | 11.33 | 19.63 | 148.93 | 0.97 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Packers | 16 | 3.94 | 5.88 | 43.94 | 0.31 |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 4.81 | 5.94 | 52.81 | 1 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 100 | 3.96 | 5.85 | 42.15 | 0.38 |
Nathaniel Hackett Takeaways & Expectations
While Matt LaFleur is expected to be the primary offensive play-caller of the Green Bay Packers in 2021, it's also important that we look at the type of offenses his offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett has historically preferred to run.
In Nathaniel Hackett's 100 game career as an offensive coordinator, his team's offenses have averaged 34.63 passing attempts per game - which is around the league average. This means that if Hackett takes on play-calling duties at any point during the 2021 season, we could see a slight increase in passing attempts from the offense that LaFleur has tended to roll with. In addition, Hackett's quarterbacks have averaged just 3.59 carries per game over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator.
Overall, for the most part, the value of the Packers starting quarterback would largely stay the same whether it's Matt LaFleur or Nathaniel Hackett calling the plays. The only possible change in quarterback value would be a slight passing attempt increase if Hackett takes on the duties. But what about the skill positions - running back, wide receiver, and tight end? How would any potential play-calling change impact those guys?
Looking at the running back position, Nathaniel Hackett has traditionally been great in providing the position work. Hackett's running backs have averaged 24.69 carries and 0.69 rushing touchdowns per game over the course of his 100 game career as an offensive coordinator.
This usage shows that with offensive play-calling duties in the hands of Hackett, the team may feed their running backs more with Hackett than it would with LaFleur. This is interesting to see because LaFleur himself has done a great job providing his running backs with work on the ground, and shows that the Packers will be committed to feeding their backs no matter what. But from a fantasy perspective, we also need to consider how much of the work on the ground is Hackett giving to one tailback versus multiple backs.
If you are rostering Aaron Jones in your fantasy league, looking at the graph above might be a little scary because on the ground Nathaniel Hackett has greatly preferred to take the running back by committee approach over a bell cow one. If Nathaniel Hackett has his say on how the Packers utilize their backs, there's a good chance that the carry distribution between Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will be roughly even.
Finally, Hackett gives his running backs an above-average amount of work in the passing game with his tailbacks seeing 7.98 targets per game.
This is more work than Matt LaFleur has traditionally provided his running backs through the air and means that if you have the Packers' primary pass-catching back in your fantasy league, you are probably rooting for Nathaniel Hackett to take over the offensive play-calling duties at some point. Matt LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett each have their strengths and weaknesses in utilizing running backs, but the bottom line is that there is value in the Packers' backfield.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator Hackett has provided his wide receiver room with 19.63 targets per game.
Hackett's wide receiver room has consistently hovered closely to that average in every season he's been an offensive coordinator (with the exception of 2016). Overall, Hackett might provide an increase in a target or so per game for the wide receivers compared to Matt LaFleur, but it's not enough to drastically change the fantasy value of the group.
Lastly, looking at the tight end position, Hackett's offense hasn't utilized them a ton with the group averaging 5.85 targets per game.
Looking at the year-by-year data, it's clear that the Packers' tight end room will likely hover around six tight end targets per game barring a drastic change in Matt LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett's offensive philosophies. Keep this information in mind when thinking about where to take Robert Tonyan in your fantasy football league.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Blake Bortles, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Kylin Hill, Dexter Williams, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Amari Rodgers, Equanimeous St. Brown, Devin Funchess, Robert Tonyan, and Marcedes Lewis
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Joe Barry
Joe Barry has been a defensive coordinator at the NFL level previously for the Detroit Lions (2007-2008) and the team formerly known as the Washington Redskins (2015-2016). Because of his background, let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Barry's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2015 Washington | 16 | 23.69 | 258 | 122.63 | 63.13 | 6.03 | 1.69 |
| 2016 Washington | 16 | 23.94 | 258.13 | 119.75 | 65.63 | 5.76 | 1.31 |
| Barry's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 64 | 26.92 | 251.64 | 133.48 | 64.94 | 5.93 | 1.61 |
Maybe he returns it around with a better team like the Green Bay Packers, but Joe Barry has had a pretty bad track record as a defensive coordinator thus far with his defenses historically being below average in points allowed, passing yards given up, rushing yards given up, and yards per play. The only real bright spot for his defenses has been the high number of turnovers forced per game, but overall on paper, this seems like a downgrade from Mike Pettine. From a fantasy perspective, view the Packers D/ST as a streaming option for the 2021 NFL season.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Maurice Drayton - Maurice Drayton will be the Green Bay Packers special teams coordinator in 2021 after Shawn Mennenga was fired. Drayton spent the three seasons prior to the 2021 NFL season as the assistant special teams' coach for the Packers.
QB Coach: Luke Getsy - Luke Getsy has had two stints with the Packers. In his first stint, he served as an offensive quality control coach (2014-2015) and as a wide receivers coach (2016-2017). Now in his second stint, Getsy has served as the team's quarterbacks coach since 2019 as well as the team's passing game coordinator since 2020.
RB Coach: Ben Sirmans - Ben Sirmans has been the Green Bay Packers running backs coach since 2016. He's been coaching running backs at the college and NFL levels since 1996, notably also serving as the St. Louis Rams running backs coach from 2012-2015.
WR Coach: Jason Vrable - Jason Vrable has been the Green Bay Packers wide receivers coach since 2020 after previously serving as an offensive assistant coach for the team. He has also spent time at the NFL level with the Buffalo Bills (2013-2016) and New York Jets (2017-2018) in a variety of roles.
TE Coach: Justin Outten - Justin Outten has been the Green Bay Packers tight ends coach since 2019. He also has previously worked at the NFL level for the Atlanta Falcons as a coaching intern (2016) and offensive assistant coach (2017-2018).
OL Coach: Adam Stenavich - Adam Stenavich has been coaching since 2012 and has served as the Green Bay Packers offensive line coach since 2019. He also will serve as the team's run game coordinator in 2021.
DL Coach: Jerry Montgomery - Jerry Montgomery has been coaching with the Green Bay Packers since 2015 and has served as the team's defensive line coach since 2018. Prior to joining the Packers, he spent many years coaching at the college level.
ILB Coach: Kirk Olivadotti - Kirk Olivadotti has been the Green Bay Packers inside linebackers coach since 2019. He previously spent much of his time coaching in a variety of roles for the team formerly known as the Washington Redskins (2000-2010, 2014-2018).
OLB Coach: Mike Smith - Mike Smith has been the Green Bay Packers outside linebackers coach since 2019. At the NFL level, he has previously spent time coaching in a variety of roles for the New York Jets (2010-2012) and Kansas City Chiefs (2016-2018). Smith also played linebacker in the NFL for the Baltimore Ravens (2005-2008).
DB Coach: Jerry Gray - Jerry Gray has been the Green Bay Packers defensive backs coach since 2020, and coaching at the NFL level since 1997. At the NFL level, he has previously been a defensive backs coach for the Tennessee Titans (1999-2000), Washington Redskins (2006-2009), Seattle Seahawks (2010), and Minnesota Vikings (2014-2019). In addition, Gray has experience as a defensive coordinator from his time with the Buffalo Bills (2001-2005) and Tennessee Titans (2011-2013). He also was a defensive back in the NFL for the Los Angeles Rams (1985-1991), Houston Oilers (1992), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1993).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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