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Coaching Matters: 2021 New York Jets Coaching Staff Preview

After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.

One team that decided to shake up their coaching staff this offseason was the New York Jets. After a disappointing season where the team finished 2-14 and ended up with the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jets fired head coach Adam Gase and brought in former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to be the new head coach. Saleh then appointed Mike LaFleur to be the team's new offensive coordinator and former Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to be the new defensive coordinator.

This article will look at the potential impact this new coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Jets players' fantasy values in this new era.

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The Baseline

To get a better understanding of the value the Jets coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Jets' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:

QB Impact

Year Team Pass Att. Team Pass Yds. Team Pass TDs QB Carries QB Rush Yds. QB Rush TDs
2019 League Average
34.87 251.78 1.56 3.56 15.04 0.16
2020 League Average 35.19 254.88 1.70 4.19 18.43 0.25

RB Impact

Year RB Carries RB Rush Yds. RB Rush TDs RB Rec. RB Targets RB Rec. Yds. RB Rec. TDs
2019 League Average
21.77 92.96 0.68 5.10 6.64 40 0.19
2020 League Average
21.68 95.13 0.75 4.71 6.14 34.94 0.18

WR Impact

Year WR Rec. WR Targets WR Rec. Yds. WR Rec. TDs
2019 League Average
12.05 19.59 158.39 0.95
2020 League Average
13.24 20.21 166.67 1.04

TE Impact

Year TE Rec. TE Targets TE Rec. Yds. TE Rec. TDs
2019 League Average
4.70 6.88 50.99 0.38
2020 League Average
4.76 7.03 51.29 0.45

Defense Impact

Year Points Allowed Pass Yds Given Up Run Yds Given Up Plays Against Yds/Play
Turnovers Forced
22.8 235 112.9 63.5 5.5 1.4
24.8 240.2 118.9 64.3 5.6 1.3

Previous Coaching Staff

In order to get an understanding of how the New York Jets fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at some of the key members of the New York Jets previous coaching staff: Former head coach Adam Gase, offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, and former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.

Former Head Coach Adam Gase

QB Impact

Year Games Team Pass Att. Team Pass Yds. Team Pass TDs QB Carries QB Rush Yds. QB Rush TDs
2019 Jets 16 32.56 215.19 1.19 2.06 3.88 0.13
2020 Jets 16 31.19 194.69 1 2.69 14.94 0.13
Gase's Career Averages (OC/HC)
128 34.05 246.63 1.78 2.28 6.52 0.06

RB Impact

Year Games RB Carries RB Rush Yds. RB Rush TDs RB Rec. RB Targets RB Rec. Yds.
RB Rec. TDs
2019 Jets 16 21.50 70.81 0.19 5.38 6.69 36.50 0.06
2020 Jets 16 22.25 86.44 0.44 3.81 4.69 24.13 0.06
Gase's Career Averages (OC/HC) 128 23.00 95.66 0.59 4.61 6.20 36.88 0.20

WR Impact

Year Games WR Rec. WR Targets WR Rec. Yds. WR Rec. TDs
2019 Jets 16 12.50 21.19 155.31 0.81
2020 Jets 16 11.88 20.56 146.94 0.75
Gase's Career Averages (OC/HC) 128 13.41 21.48 171.75 1.13

TE Impact

Year Games TE Rec. TE Targets TE Rec. Yds. TE Rec. TDs
2019 Jets 16 2.31 2.88 23.38 0.31
2020 Jets 16 2.56 3.69 23.63 0.19
Gase's Career Averages (OC/HC) 128 3.77 5.39 37.98 0.45

 

Former Offensive Coordinator Dowell Loggains

QB Impact

Year Games Team Pass Att. Team Pass Yds. Team Pass TDs QB Carries QB Rush Yds. QB Rush TDs
2019 Jets 16 32.56 215.19 1.19 2.06 3.88 0.13
2020 Jets 16 31.19 194.69 1 2.69 14.94 0.13
Loggains's Career Averages (OC/HC)
96 31.67 216.68 1.20 2.58 11.70 0.11

RB Impact

Year Games RB Carries RB Rush Yds. RB Rush TDs RB Rec. RB Targets RB Rec. Yds.
RB Rec. TDs
2019 Jets 16 21.50 70.81 0.19 5.38 6.69 36.50 0.06
2020 Jets 16 22.25 86.44 0.44 3.81 4.69 24.13 0.06
Loggains's Career Averages (OC) 96 22.23 91.03 0.51 4.5 5.94 34.54 0.18

WR Impact

Year Games WR Rec. WR Targets WR Rec. Yds. WR Rec. TDs
2019 Jets 16 12.50 21.19 155.31 0.81
2020 Jets 16 11.88 20.56 146.94 0.75
Loggains's Career Averages (OC) 96 11.64 19.61 149.57 0.71

TE Impact

Year Games TE Rec. TE Targets TE Rec. Yds. TE Rec. TDs
2019 Jets 16 2.31 2.88 23.38 0.31
2020 Jets 16 2.56 3.69 23.63 0.19
Loggains's Career Averages (OC) 96 3.16 4.68 30.69 0.26

 

Former Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams

Year Games Points Allowed Pass Yds Given Up Run Yds Given Up Plays Against Yds/Play Turnovers Forced
2019 Jets 16 22.44 236.19 86.94 64.81 4.99 1.31
2020 Jets 12 29.42 291 107.75 68.17 5.85 1.25
Gregg Williams's Career Averages (DC/HC) 348 21.35 219.96 107.72 62.83 5.22 1.47

 

2021 Offense

2021 Offensive Coordinator: Mike LaFleur

Mike LaFleur has been around the NFL for a few years, but the 2021 New York Jets will provide his first opportunity as an NFL offensive coordinator where he will be the primary offensive play-caller for the team.

Year Team Role
2010 Saint Joseph's College QB Coach
2011 Saint Joseph's College Offensive Coordinator (OC)
2012 Saint Joseph's College Offensive Coordinator (OC)
2013 Davidson OC/QB/WR Coach
2014 Cleveland Browns Intern
2015 Atlanta Falcons Offensive Assistant (TE)
2016 Atlanta Falcons Offensive Assistant (WR)
2017 San Francisco 49ers Wide Receivers Coach
2018 San Francisco 49ers Passing Game Coordinator/WR Coach
2019 San Francisco 49ers Passing Game Coordinator
2020 San Francisco 49ers Passing Game Coordinator

 

Mike LaFleur Takeaways & Expectations

Mike LaFleur's background suggests that he has a good understanding of the passing game with stints as a QB coach (college-level only), offensive coordinator (college-level only), WR coach, and passing game coordinator over the last ten years. While we were unable to retrieve team statistics from his time as the offensive coordinator at Saint Joseph's College since the college closed down in 2017, we were able to find offensive statistics from his time as an offensive coordinator at Davidson. 

Year Games Team Pass Att. Team Pass Yds. Team Pass TDs QB Carries QB Rush Yds. QB Rush TDs
2010 Saint Joseph's (OC) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2011 Saint Joseph's (OC) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2012 Saint Joseph's (OC) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2013 Davidson (OC)
11 35.36 232.64 1.18 10* -5.91* 0.36

*College statistics include sacks as a rushing statistic, influencing quarterback rushing statistics

Based on Davidson's stats when Mike LaFleur was the offensive coordinator back in 2021, it looks like he'll take a pretty balanced approach between running and passing. In addition, during this time LaFleur saw his quarterback score four rushing touchdowns in just 11 games. This suggests that LaFleur may provide some red zone rushing opportunities for his rookie quarterback in 2021.

While LaFleur hasn't officially had a role that involves working with running backs or the running game at the NFL level, we can learn a lot about what he may try to do by looking at his college history as an offensive coordinator and by looking at some of the offensive-minds he's worked with in the past.

When Mike LaFleur was an offensive coordinator at Davidson, his offense didn't run the ball a ton with his running backs (18.82 carries per game) but when they did they were efficient - averaging 4.31 yards per carry. In addition, it's important to note that LaFleur has spent nearly his entire NFL career working under Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan comes from the Gary Kubiak/Mike Shanahan coaching tree that also features Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay and Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Coaches from this coaching tree have had a ton of success running the ball with a zone run blocking scheme, and it's likely that Mike LaFleur continues the trend with his backs being efficient on the ground.

Mike LaFleur College Offensive Coordinator Stats
Year Games RB Carries RB Rush Yds. RB Rush TDs RB Rec. RB Rec. Yds. RB Rec. TDs
2010 Saint Joseph's (OC) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2011 Saint Joseph's (OC) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2012 Saint Joseph's (OC) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2013 Davidson (OC) 11 18.82 81.09 0.36 1.45 10.81 0.09

Now while LaFleur's running backs should be efficient on the ground, it's important to note that his offense didn't really utilize running backs in the passing game at Davidson with the group averaging just 1.45 receptions and 10.81 receiving yards per game. This raises some concern about how much upside the New York Jets running backs will have in the 2021 season - particularly in PPR formats. Overall expect some improvement from the Jets running backs in 2021, but do not plan on drafting one as your RB1 or RB2.

Mike LaFleur had some mild success utilizing the wide receiver position in his time as an offensive coordinator at Davidson, but the NFL level is a whole different challenge. 

Mike LaFleur College Offensive Coordinator Stats
Year Games WR Rec. WR Rec. Yds. WR Rec. TDs
2010 NA NA NA NA
2011 NA NA NA NA
2012 NA NA NA NA
2013 11 13.64 181.36 0.82

Looking at LaFleur's numbers, the Jets will likely target their wide receivers at similar rate to the 2021 NFL league average - not much more and not much less. Based on this, there's room for one or two receivers to be fantasy-relevant, but the level of their performance will be dependent on how quickly their rookie quarterback can adapt to the NFL game.

Last but not least, we need to take a look at how Mike LaFleur may utilize his tight end room based on his previous experience.

Mike LaFleur College Offensive Coordinator Stats
Year Games TE Rec. TE Rec. Yds. TE Rec. TDs
2010 NA NA NA NA
2011 NA NA NA NA
2012 NA NA NA NA
2013 11 3.09 32.73 0.18

Looking at how Mike LaFleur utilized the tight end position at his stops compared to how Adam Gase has historically utilized the tight end position, it's encouraging for the Jets tight end room in 2021. In Gase's career, he only provided his tight end room 5.39 targets per game, and it dropped to around three targets per game during his tenure with the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Mike LaFleur's tight end room averaged 3.09 receptions per game when he was an offensive coordinator at Davidson and he was the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers team that saw tight end George Kittle go over 1000 yards in back-to-back seasons (2018 & 2019). Based on this information, the New York Jets tight ends should get a slight boost in fantasy football rankings this year and we may finally see Chris Herndon pay off as a late-round TE flier.

Overall, Adam Gase's offense last year was near the bottom of the NFL in plays run and that should change with Mike LaFleur calling the plays. This means there should be better offensive fantasy production across the board, and there could be a diamond or two in the rough on the New York Jets roster for fantasy purposes.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Zach WilsonTevin Coleman, Michael CarterLa'Mical Perine, Ty Johnson, Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, Keelan Cole, Jamison Crowder, Elijah MooreBraxton Berrios, Jeff Smith, Chris Herndon, Ryan Griffin, and Tyler Kroft

 

2021 Defense

2021 Head Coach: Robert Saleh

Over the last four seasons, Robert Saleh has been the defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers. In this time, Saleh created an impressive enough resumé to get the New York Jets to hire him as their newest head coach. Let's take a look at how Saleh's defense has performed over the last couple of years.

Year Games Points Allowed Pass Yds Given Up Run Yds Given Up Plays Against Yds/Play Turnovers Forced
2019 49ers 16 19.38 169.19 112.63 60.5 4.66 1.69
2020 49ers 16 24.38 207.94 106.44 62.31 5.05 1.25
Robert Saleh's Career Averages (DC/HC) 64 23.72 211.41 112.19 63.33 5.11 1.16

 

2021 Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich

Last year Jeff Ulbrich was the Atlanta Falcons interim defensive coordinator after head coach Dan Quinn was fired and Raheem Morris was promoted to interim head coach. Let's take a look at how Ulbrich's defense performed over this time.

Year Games Points Allowed Pass Yds Given Up Run Yds Given Up Plays Against Yds/Play
Turnovers Forced
2020 Falcons 11 23 274.36 102.36 63.09 5.97 1.45
Jeff Ulbrich's Career Averages (DC/HC) 11 23 274.36 102.36 63.09 5.97 1.45

Looking at Saleh's defense and comparing it with Gregg Williams' defense we can expect a couple of things. Saleh's 4-3 defense will give up fewer yards per play and be significantly better against the pass than Gregg Williams' defense. In addition, the team should give up fewer points in general with Saleh making the defensive play-calls rather than Williams, given what Saleh has been able to accomplish in his last two years with the San Francisco 49ers despite his team dealing with some major injuries to star defensive players. Saleh's defense probably won't blitz and gamble as much as Gregg Williams' defense and may end up forcing fewer turnovers. But overall from a fantasy football perspective expect the Jets D/ST to be better and more consistent week to week in 2021.

 

Other Notable Assistants

Special Teams Coordinator: Brant Boyer - Brant Boyer is one of the few coaches who returns from the 2020 New York Jets coaching staff. He will be entering year six with the team and has been one of the lone bright spots on the team's coaching staff the last few years.

QB Coach: Rob Calabrese - This is Rob Calabrese's first year as a New York Jet and as an NFL quarterbacks coach. He was previously the Denver Broncos offensive quality control coach (2019-2020) and played quarterback at UCF from 2008-2012.

RB Coach: Taylor Embree - Taylor Embree will be a first time running backs coach with the New York Jets. He was a former NFL wide receiver for the San Diego Chargers (2012) and most recently coached as a tight ends coach at Colorado (2020).

WR Coach: Miles Austin - Miles Austin is best-known for his playing career as a wide receiver with the Dallas Cowboys (2006-2013), Cleveland Browns (2014), and Philadelphia Eagles (2015). This is his first time as a wide receivers coach at any level and he previously spent a season with the San Francisco 49ers as an offensive quality control coach (2019).

TE Coach: Ron Middleton - Ron Middleton played tight end in the NFL for ten seasons with Atlanta (1986-1987), Cleveland (1989), Washington (1988 & 1990-1993), Los Angeles (1994), and San Deigo (1995). He was the Jacksonville Jaguars tight ends coach from 2016 to 2020 before joining the New York Jets in 2021.

OL Coach: John Benton - John Benton has been an offensive line coach with the St. Louis Rams (2004-2005), Houston Texans (2006-2013), Miami Dolphins (2014-2015), and San Francisco 49ers (2017-2020) in his coaching career.

DL Coach: Aaron Whitecotton - Aaron Whitecotton is entering his first year as a defensive line coach with the New York Jets. Previously he had been an assistant defensive line coach with the Jacksonville Jaguars (2013-2016), Buffalo Bills (2018-2019), and San Francisco 49ers (2020).

LB Coach: Mike Rutenberg - 2021 will be Mike Rutenberg's first year with the New York Jets. He is entering his 12th season in the NFL after working in various roles with Washington, Jacksonville, and San Francisco.

DB/Safeties Coach: Marquand Manuel - Marquand Manuel is a former NFL safety who played for the Cincinnati Bengals (2002-2003), Seattle Seahawks (2004-2005), Green Bay Packers (2006), Carolina Panthers (2007), Denver Broncos (2008), and Detroit Lions (2009). His previous coaching history includes being the Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator from 2017-2018 and the Philadelphia Eagles defensive backs coach in 2020.

 

Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!

AFC SouthHouston TexansJacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis ColtsTennessee Titans

AFC NorthCleveland BrownsBaltimore RavensPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Bengals

AFC WestLas Vegas RaidersLos Angeles ChargersKansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos

AFC EastNew England Patriots and Miami Dolphins

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles



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