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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that managed to maintain their core coaching staff this offseason was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with head coach Bruce Arians, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles all returning for the 2021-22 season.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Buccaneers players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Buccaneers coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Buccaneers' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Bruce Arians has been an offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns (2001-2003), Pittsburgh Steelers (2007-2011), and Indianapolis Colts (2012). In addition, he's been a head coach for the Indianapolis Colts (2012 - interim), Arizona Cardinals (2013-2017), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2019-Present). Given Bruce Arians' offensive background, let's take a look at some of his team's offensive statistics over the course of his 256 game career as either an offensive coordinator or head coach.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 39.38 | 320.44 | 2.06 | 3.94 | 15.56 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 39.13 | 298.5 | 2.63 | 2.44 | 1.38 | 0.19 |
| Arians' Career Averages (OC/HC) | 256 | 34.61 | 255.53 | 1.61 | 2.44 | 6.80 | 0.08 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 21.25 | 76.31 | 0.88 | 5.25 | 7.06 | 45.19 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 20.31 | 92.81 | 0.81 | 5.25 | 7.38 | 33.31 | 0.13 |
| Arians' Career Averages (OC/HC) | 256 | 23.62 | 93.63 | 0.66 | 4.11 | 5.91 | 34.46 | 0.13 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 14 | 23.56 | 224.75 | 1.63 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 14.94 | 21.63 | 196.94 | 1.81 |
| Arians' Career Averages (OC/HC) | 256 | 13.03 | 22.11 | 179.55 | 1.16 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 4.56 | 7.25 | 50.44 | 0.31 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 5.44 | 8.56 | 68.25 | 0.69 |
| Arians' Career Averages (OC/HC) | 256 | 3.80 | 5.76 | 40.61 | 0.32 |
Bruce Arians Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of Bruce Arians' 256 game career as a play-caller, his offenses have averaged 34.61 passing attempts per game. But in the past two years, the usage has been significantly higher than that, with the Buccaneers attempting 39.38 passes per game in 2019 and 39.13 passes per game in 2020. The high passing usage in recent years will make it easier for his quarterbacks to put up big fantasy passing numbers.
But besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of Arians' quarterbacks over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Over the course of his career, Arians' quarterbacks have averaged just 2.44 carries per game.
Based on all of this information, Tom Brady is likely to get plenty of passing usage but little rushing usage once again in 2021. If you are playing in a fantasy football league, this usage should keep Brady as a mid-to-low end QB1 as long as he continues to show no signs of aging.
Looking at the running back position, Bruce Arians has been a mixed bag in utilizing the group. Over the course of his career, his running backs have averaged 0.66 rushing touchdowns per game - which is fairly average. In addition, Arians' has provided his tailbacks with 23.62 carries per game - which is a little above average.
Looking at the raw numbers, Arians has given his entire running back room an above-average number of carries over the course of his career. But take a look specifically at the last five seasons. In each of the last five seasons, the number of tailback carries by Bruce Arians' offenses has declined. This will be a trend to watch for going forward, as it could greatly affect Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II's fantasy value.
But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that Arians has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is Bruce Arians typically rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Looking at the graph above, it appears that Arians isn't likely to fully embrace a bell-cow approach, with his lead back on the season getting between 47.5-60% of the team's tailback carries in nine of his sixteen seasons as an offensive play-caller and only topping 75% of the carries twice (2010 & 2016). With a backfield containing Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II, Giovani Bernard, and Ke'Shawn Vaughn it's likely that the team's lead back sits in that 47.5-60% range once again in 2021.
The final aspect we should look at concerning Bruce Arians' running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Arians' running back room has averaged just 5.91 targets per game.
While that career average seems disappointing at first, it is important to note that in every season that Bruce Arians has been a head coach since 2013, his offense has provided his running back room with at least six targets per game. Based on this information, it seems likely that the Buccaneers are right around the league average in running back targets per game in 2021. Overall, under Arians the Buccaneers certainly have the capability to produce an RB2 in your fantasy football league. But given how crowded the running back room is, it's more likely that they take the 'hot hand' approach once again and the lead back ends the season as a high-end RB3.
Looking at the wide receiver position, Arians has provided his wide receivers with 22.11 targets per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
Bruce Arians have been one of the best coaches in the NFL at utilizing and getting production out of his wide receivers over the course of his career. Based on this information, there is room for all three of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown to be fantasy-relevant during the 2021 season.
Finally, Arians' historical usage of tight ends is a little subpar. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Bruce Arians' tight end room has averaged 5.76 targets per game.
The career average is a little discouraging. But on the flip side, looking at the season-by-season graph above it is encouraging to see that Bruce Arians has increased his tight end passing game usage in every season he's coached since 2015. Overall, expect a little regression from the 2020 target totals, but there should be enough work in this offense for a Buccaneers tight end to finish in the TE2 range of fantasy leagues.
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich
Byron Leftwich has been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator since 2019. The former NFL quarterback also served as the interim offensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals for the last nine games of the 2018 season. Let's take a look at some of Leftwich's offenses over the course of his 41 game career as an offensive coordinator.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 39.38 | 320.44 | 2.06 | 3.94 | 15.56 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 39.13 | 298.5 | 2.63 | 2.44 | 1.38 | 0.19 |
| Leftwich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 41 | 37.61 | 282.12 | 2.07 | 2.88 | 9.10 | 0.10 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 21.25 | 76.31 | 0.88 | 5.25 | 7.06 | 45.19 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 20.31 | 92.81 | 0.81 | 5.25 | 7.38 | 33.31 | 0.13 |
| Leftwich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 41 | 20.95 | 84.61 | 0.76 | 5.20 | 7.20 | 39.63 | 0.12 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 14 | 23.56 | 224.75 | 1.63 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 14.94 | 21.63 | 196.94 | 1.81 |
| Leftwich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 41 | 13.51 | 21.56 | 190.66 | 1.54 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 4.56 | 7.25 | 50.44 | 0.31 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 5.44 | 8.56 | 68.25 | 0.69 |
| Leftwich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 41 | 4.54 | 7.32 | 51.80 | 0.39 |
Byron Leftwich Takeaways & Expectations
Besides Bruce Arians, we also need to consider the type of offense that Buccaneers' offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has traditionally liked to roll with. In Byron Leftwich's 41 game career as an offensive play-caller, his team's offenses have averaged 37.61 passing attempts per game - which is above the league average. This means that regardless of who calls plays on offense, the team will still lean towards a more pass-happy approach. In addition, Leftwich's quarterbacks have averaged just 2.88 carries per game over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator.
Overall, regardless of who the Buccaneers have calling the offensive plays, Tom Brady's usage shouldn't change much. But what about the skill positions - running back, wide receiver, and tight end? How would any potential play-calling change impact those guys?
Looking at the running back position, Byron Leftwich has been subpar in giving the position work. His running backs have averaged 0.76 rushing touchdowns per game and seen an average of 20.95 carries per game over his 41 game career as an offensive coordinator.
This usage shows that with offensive play-calling duties in the hands of Leftwich, the team does not feed their running backs as much as it would with Arians. The other important thing we need to consider is how much of that work on the ground does Leftwich split between multiple backs.
While he's spent 32 of his 41 games as an offensive coordinator working under Bruce Arians, it is encouraging to see that Leftwich preferred a bell-cow approach in his time in Arizona back in 2018. This means that as long as Leftwich is the team's primary play-caller, it is possible the Buccaneers decide to flip from a 'hot hand' approach on the ground to a bell-cow one with Leonard Fournette during the 2021 NFL season.
Finally, Leftwich gives his running backs a slightly above-average amount of work in the passing game with his tailbacks seeing 7.20 targets per game.
This is more work than Bruce Arians has traditionally provided his running backs through the air, and means that if you have the Buccaneers primary pass-catching back in your fantasy league, you are rooting for Byron Leftwich to hold onto offensive play-calling duties. Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich each have their strengths and weaknesses in utilizing running backs, but overall the group's production should remain largely the same regardless of who is the primary play-caller.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, Byron Leftwich utilizes his wide receivers more than the average play-caller much like head coach Bruce Arians. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator, Leftwich has provided his wide receiver room with 21.56 targets per game.
Much like Bruce Arians, Byron Leftwich has provided a large workload from his wide receiver room during his time as an offensive coordinator. This means that you shouldn't expect any major changes in wide receiver usage if the play-calling switches from Byron Leftwich back to Bruce Arians, and that the Buccaneers wide receivers should be pretty solid investments in fantasy leagues.
Lastly, looking at the tight end position, Leftwich's offense has utilized them a fair amount with the group averaging 7.32 tight end targets per game.
Leftwich's usage of the tight end position is right around the league averages in 2019 and 2020. Overall, Leftwich should provide Rob Gronkowski and company with a decent workload in the passing game during the 2021 season.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Tom Brady, Kyle Trask, Blaine Gabbert, Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II, Giovani Bernard, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles
Todd Bowles joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a defensive coordinator in 2019. Bowles has been one of the best defensive minds in football over the course of his career, previously spending time as the interim head coach of the Miami Dolphins (2011), interim defensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles (2012), defensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals (2013-2014), and the head coach of the New York Jets (2015-2018). Because of his defensive background, let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Bowles's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Buccaneers | 16 | 28.06 | 270.13 | 73.81 | 67.06 | 5.13 | 1.75 |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 16 | 22.19 | 246.56 | 80.56 | 63.94 | 5.12 | 1.56 |
| Bowles's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 141 | 23.82 | 245.04 | 100.28 | 64.49 | 5.36 | 1.44 |
The Buccaneers defense has been pretty strong with Todd Bowles directing it. In 2020 under Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers defense was fairly average in passing yards given up and above-average in points allowed, yards given up per play, and turnovers forced. But the pride and joy of Bowles' defenses have been their dominance against the run. Based on this information, under Todd Bowles, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST should be a strong fantasy option once again in 2021.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Keith Armstrong - Keith Armstrong became the Tampa Bay Buccaneers special teams coordinator in 2019 and has been coaching since 1987. Prior to becoming the special teams coordinator in Tampa Bay, he spent time as a special teams coach for the Chicago Bears (1997-2000), Miami Dolphins (2001-2007), and Atlanta Falcons (2008-2018).
Assistant Head Coach/Run Game Coordinator: Harold Goodwin - Harold Goodwin has been working with Bruce Arians for a long-time and is one of the leaders of the Buccaneers coaching staff. Prior to joining the Buccaneers in 2019, Goodwin worked as an offensive line coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers (2007-2011), an offensive line coach for the Indianapolis Colts (2012), and the Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator (2013-2017). If the Buccaneers have another successful season in 2021, he should get interviews for a head coaching job next offseason.
QB Coach: Clyde Christensen - Clyde Christensen has been coaching football for a long time, with a career dating back to 1979. He's worked as a quarterbacks coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1999-2000, 2019-Present) and the Indianapolis Colts (2012-2015), and has also served as an offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2001), Indianapolis Colts (2009-2011), and Miami Dolphins (2016-2017).
RB Coach: Todd McNair - Todd McNair joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a running backs coach in 2019 after nearly a decade off from coaching football. He previously coached running backs for the Cleveland Browns (2001-2003) and USC Trojans (2004-2010). He also played in the NFL for the Kansas City Chiefs (1989-1993, 1996) and Houston Oilers (1994-1995).
WR Coach: Kevin Garver - Kevin Garver has been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receivers coach since 2019. He's previously worked for the Alabama Crimson Tide (2007-2012) and the Arizona Cardinals (2013-2018) in a variety of roles - including as a wide receivers coach for the Arizona Cardinals back in 2018.
TE Coach: Rick Christophel - Rick Christophel joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coaching staff in 2019 and has been coaching football since 1975. While most of his career coaching was spent at the college level, he did spend 2013-2017 as the Arizona Cardinals tight ends coach.
OL Coach: Joe Gilbert - Joe Gilbert has been coaching football since 1987 and joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2019 when Bruce Arians got hired to be the team's next head coach. At the NFL level, he's previously worked as an assistant offensive line coach for the Indianapolis Colts (2012, 2016-2017) and as the Colts' offensive line coach (2013-2015).
DL Coach: Kacy Rodgers - Kacy Rodgers was hired to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive line coach back in 2019. At the NFL level Rodgers has previously worked as a defensive tackles coach for the Dallas Cowboys (2003-2004), a defensive line coach for the Dallas Cowboys (2005-2007), a defensive line coach for the Miami Dolphins (2008-2014), and as a defensive coordinator for the New York Jets (2015-2018).
ILB Coach: Mike Caldwell - Mike Caldwell has been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers inside linebackers coach since 2019. He's worked with defensive coordinator Todd Bowles since 2012, notably serving as the Philadelphia Eagles linebackers coach (2011-2012), the Arizona Cardinals inside linebackers coach (2013-2014), and the New York Jets inside linebackers coach (2015-2018). He also played linebacker at the NFL level for the Cleveland Browns (1993-1995), Baltimore Ravens (1996), Arizona Cardinals (1997), Philadelphia Eagles (1998-2001), Chicago Bears (2002), and Carolina Panthers (2003).
OLB Coach: Larry Foote - Larry Foote joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coaching staff in 2019 as the outside linebackers coach. He previously was the linebackers coach for the Arizona Cardinals (2016-2018). Foote also played linebacker in the NFL for the Pittsburgh Steelers (2002-2008, 2010-2013), Detroit Lions (2009), and Arizona Cardinals (2014).
Cornerbacks Coach: Kevin Ross - Kevin Ross has been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks coach since 2019. At the NFL level, he's previously been a defensive backs coach for the Minnesota Vikings (2004-2006), San Diego Chargers (2007-2009), and the Oakland Raiders (2010-2011) as well as a cornerbacks coach for the Arizona Cardinals (2013-2017). He also played in the NFL for the Kansas City Chiefs (1984-1993, 1997), Atlanta Falcons (1994-1995), and San Diego Chargers (1996).
Safeties Coach: Nick Rapone - Nick Rapone has been coaching football since 1979. He joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a safeties coach in 2019 and has previously worked in the NFL as a defensive backs coach for the Arizona Cardinals (2013-2017).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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