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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Atlanta Falcons' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that shook up their coaching staff this offseason was the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons fired Dan Quinn, Dirk Koetter, Raheem Morris, and Jeff Ulbrich to bring in Arthur Smith as the new head coach, Dave Ragone as the new offensive coordinator, and Dean Pees as the new defensive coordinator.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Falcons players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Falcons coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Falcons' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Atlanta Falcons fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at some of the key members of the Atlanta Falcons previous coaching staff: former head coach Dan Quinn, former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, former interim head coach Raheem Morris, and former interim defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Head Coach: Dan Quinn
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Falcons | 16 | 24.94 | 244.88 | 110.94 | 61.56 | 5.78 | 1.25 |
| 2020 Falcons | 5 | 32.2 | 335.8 | 110.2 | 68 | 6.56 | 1 |
| Quinn's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 117 | 21.66 | 231.20 | 104.89 | 62.56 | 5.37 | 1.44 |
Former Offensive Coordinator: Dirk Koetter
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Falcons | 16 | 42.75 | 315.56 | 1.81 | 2.31 | 9 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Falcons | 16 | 39.25 | 288.75 | 1.69 | 2 | 5.5 | 0.13 |
| Koetter's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 224 | 35.82 | 260.89 | 1.57 | 3.33 | 13.04 | 0.12 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Falcons | 16 | 19.38 | 72.69 | 0.56 | 5.44 | 6.75 | 37.19 | 0.31 |
| 2020 Falcons | 16 | 22.63 | 88.63 | 0.69 | 4.19 | 5.69 | 27.38 | 0 |
| Koetter's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 224 | 22.38 | 92.37 | 0.63 | 4.83 | 6.33 | 37.35 | 0.16 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Falcons | 16 | 17.31 | 26.31 | 213.75 | 1 |
| 2020 Falcons | 16 | 16.5 | 24.69 | 216.5 | 1.31 |
| Koetter's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 224 | 12.89 | 21.36 | 170.49 | 0.92 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Falcons | 16 | 5.75 | 7.56 | 61.81 | 0.44 |
| 2020 Falcons | 16 | 4.13 | 6.5 | 41.19 | 0.38 |
| Koetter's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 224 | 4.54 | 6.93 | 50.39 | 0.45 |
Former Defensive Coordinator/Interim Head Coach: Raheem Morris
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2011 Buccaneers | 16 | 30.88 | 238.38 | 156.06 | 62.63 | 6.30 | 1.5 |
| 2020 Falcons | 16 | 25.88 | 293.56 | 104.81 | 64.63 | 6.16 | 1.31 |
| Morris's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 64 | 25.41 | 235.08 | 137.69 | 63.53 | 5.87 | 1.59 |
Former Interim Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 Falcons | 11 | 23 | 274.36 | 102.36 | 63.09 | 5.97 | 1.45 |
| Ulbrich's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 11 | 23 | 274.36 | 102.36 | 63.09 | 5.97 | 1.45 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Arthur Smith
Arthur Smith served as the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator for two seasons prior to becoming the Atlanta Falcons head coach. Let's take a look at the performance of Smith's offenses over the course of his 32 game career as the Titans offensive coordinator to see if we can get some insight into what kind of offense he plans on running with the Atlanta Falcons in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 28 | 247.25 | 1.81 | 4.19 | 19.63 | 0.25 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 30.31 | 239.13 | 2.06 | 3.13 | 17.25 | 0.44 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 29.16 | 243.19 | 1.94 | 3.66 | 18.44 | 0.34 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 23 | 110.94 | 1 | 2.69 | 3.56 | 23.13 | 0.19 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 28.94 | 149.31 | 1.13 | 2.13 | 3.31 | 12.56 | 0.13 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 25.97 | 130.13 | 1.06 | 2.41 | 3.44 | 17.84 | 0.16 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 10.69 | 15.94 | 160.69 | 1.06 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 11.44 | 16.88 | 163.69 | 1.19 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 11.06 | 16.41 | 162.19 | 1.13 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 4.75 | 6.69 | 59.25 | 0.44 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 5.88 | 8.63 | 60.44 | 0.75 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 5.31 | 7.66 | 59.84 | 0.59 |
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Dave Ragone
| Dave Ragone Previous NFL Coaching Jobs | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2011-2012 | Tennessee Titans | WR Coach |
| 2013 | Tennessee Titans | QB Coach |
| 2015 | Washington Redskins |
Offensive Quality Control
|
| 2016-2019 | Chicago Bears | QB Coach |
| 2020 | Chicago Bears |
Passing Game Coordinator
|
Arthur Smith and Dave Ragone Takeaways & Expectations
Arthur Smith is expected to be the primary play-caller for the Atlanta Falcons and Dave Ragone has never officially worked as an offensive coordinator or head coach before, so we will primarily be talking about the offense that Arthur Smith has liked to run over the course of his career in this section. Over the course of Arthur Smith's 32 game career as an offensive play-caller, his offenses have averaged 29.16 passing attempts per game - which is well below-average.
The strength of the Falcons offense has been the passing game in recent years. While it will continue to be their biggest strength, based on this information we should expect a bit of a drop in passing attempts from the extremely pass-heavy offense that Dirk Koetter has run the last two years, and more of a marriage between the running and passing game under Smith.
It's also important to pay attention to the amount of rushing work a quarterback receives since it can give your quarterback a higher ceiling in fantasy leagues. Over the course of his career, Smith's quarterback room has averaged 3.66 carries per game.
Arthur Smith's previous quarterbacks have carried the ball around the league average mark the last couple of years, but with a more immobile quarterback in Matt Ryan, it's likely that his offense dials it back in the quarterback carries department. Overall, in this offense, expect Matt Ryan's passing volume to drop a bit but his efficiency to go up. In fantasy football leagues, Matt Ryan should be valued in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 range.
Examining Arthur Smith's running back rooms over the course of his career, he's done a good job of feeding his running backs. Over the course of the 32 games that Arthur Smith has been an offensive coordinator, his running back room has averaged 1.06 rushing touchdowns per game - which is above-average. In addition, his running backs have averaged 25.97 carries per game over this time which is better than the average play-caller.
While Smith is unlikely to feed Mike Davis and company to the level he did with Derrick Henry in Tennessee, if old trends hold true, Smith will give the Falcons running backs a fair share of work on the ground. But in terms of the distribution of carries, how much is Smith feeding one back on the ground versus rolling with a running back by committee approach?
Looking at the graph above, Arthur Smith greatly preferred to feed one back on the ground than roll with a committee during his time in Tennessee. It is important to note that his lead back in Tennessee was one of the best pure runners in the NFL, Derrick Henry, so the Falcons lead back is probably not going to be receiving 75%+ of the team's tailback carries. But the lead back getting 60-65% of these carries seems very doable based on Smith's previous resumé.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Arthur Smith's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Smith's running back room has averaged just 3.44 targets per game.
This is one of the worst marks among active NFL offensive-minded head coaches and offensive coordinators with previous NFL play-calling experience.
On one hand, you can argue that he was just playing to the strengths of his offense, as Derrick Henry isn't much of a pass-catcher. But on the other hand, this mark is so ridiculously low that it makes it hard to see this group getting anything more than an average amount of receiving work. Considering one of Mike Davis's biggest strengths is his ability as a pass-catcher if Smith doesn't adjust his offensive scheme to feature his running backs in the passing game more, Davis's fantasy upside could be more limited. Overall, there's a lot of uncertainty on how Arthur Smith will deploy the Falcons running backs since their strengths are vastly different from the running backs he worked with for the Tennessee Titans, but for now, it seems best to view Mike Davis as a boom/bust RB2 in your fantasy league.
Looking to the wide receiver position, in his 32 game career as the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator, Smith provided his wide receivers with 16.41 targets per game.
This usage is well below the league averages in 2019 and 2020. Considering Dirk Koetter's offense gave the Falcons wide receivers 26.31 targets per game in 2019 and 24.69 targets, there is some major concern that the Falcons wide receivers will receive less work in 2021 with Smith calling the plays and be more reliant on efficiency for their fantasy production. Calvin Ridley's talent should keep him as a solid WR1 in Smith's offense much like A.J. Brown was in Tennessee, but the team's other wide receivers may struggle to be anything more than a FLEX play in fantasy leagues if Smith sticks to his old ways.
Lastly, Smith's historical usage of his tight ends in the passing game has been pretty good. In his career as the Titans offensive coordinator, Smith's tight end room averaged 7.66 targets per game.
This tight end usage is really encouraging to see, with 26.26% of the Titans overall passing attempts going to the tight end position during Smith's time as the team's offensive coordinator. Considering the Falcons just utilized the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Kyle Pitts and also still have Hayden Hurst on the roster, it's likely that they heavily utilize the position like Smith has in the past. If Pitts can adjust quickly to the NFL level, this situation could push him into the elite tight end tier that Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller currently occupy.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Matt Ryan, A.J. McCarron, Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, Javian Hawkins, Qadree Ollison, Tony Brooks-James, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Kyle Pitts, and Hayden Hurst.
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Dean Pees
Dean Pees will be the Atlanta Falcons' new defensive coordinator in 2021 after taking a year off from football. He's previously worked as a defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots (2006-2009), Baltimore Ravens (2012-2017), and Tennessee Titans (2018-2019). Because of his background, let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Pees's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2018 Titans | 16 | 18.94 | 216.94 | 116.44 | 62.56 | 5.33 | 1.06 |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 20.69 | 255 | 104.5 | 66 | 5.45 | 1.44 |
| Pees's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 192 | 19.59 | 221.69 | 104.37 | 62.45 | 5.22 | 1.58 |
Dean Pees has generally fielded an above-average defense in his time as a defensive coordinator, with strong career per-game averages in points allowed, passing yards given up, rushing yards given up, and turnovers forced. It's also notable to mention how much the Tennessee Titans defense fell off without him in 2020, declining in every major statistical category with the exception of turnovers forced (which was the same in 2019 as it was in 2020). The Atlanta Falcons defense has a ways to go talent-wise before they are a decent draft target in your fantasy league, but with Pees running the show expect this defense to be competent and a solid D/ST streamer during the 2021 season.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Marquice Williams - Marquice Williams will be a first-time special teams coordinator at the NFL level with the Atlanta Falcons in 2021. He previously worked as an assistant special teams coach with the Detroit Lions (2019-2020) and has also spent time coaching in a variety of roles for the Chicago Bears (2013-2014), Detroit Lions (2015), and San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (2016-2018).
QB Coach: Charles London - 2021 will be Charles London's first time as a quarterback coach. At the NFL level, he has previously spent time as the Chicago Bears offensive quality coach (2007-2009), an offensive assistant for the Tennessee Titans (2011), a running backs coach for the Houston Texans (2014-2017), and as a running backs coach for the Chicago Bears (2018-2020).
RB Coach: Desmond Kitchings - 2021 will be Desmond Kitching's first season coaching at the NFL level. He has previously been a running backs coach for Vanderbilt (2008-2009), Air Force (2011), NC State (2012-2019), and South Carolina (2020).
WR Coach: Dave Brock - Dave Brock has been coaching since 1988 and has been a coach for the Atlanta Falcons since 2017. With the Falcons, he's served as an assistant wide receivers coach (2017-2018), running backs coach (1st half of 2019), and wide receivers coach (2nd half of 2019 to present).
TE Coach: Justin Peelle - Justin Peelle will be spending his first year with the Atlanta Falcons in 2021. As a coach, he previously spent time with the Philadelphia Eagles as an assistant tight ends coach (2013-2014) and as the tight ends coach (2015-2020). He also played tight end in the NFL for the San Diego Chargers (2002-2005), Miami Dolphins (2006-2007), Atlanta Falcons (2008-2010), and San Francisco 49ers (2011).
OL Coach: Dwayne Ledford - 2021 will be Dwayne Ledford's first year coaching at the NFL level. He has previously been an offensive line coach at the college level for Tennessee State (2010), Gardner-Webb (2011), Appalachian State (2012-2015), NC State (2016-2018), and Louisville (2019-2020).
DL Coach: Gary Emanuel - Gary Emanuel has been coaching since 1981, but 2021 will be his first year coaching with the Atlanta Falcons. At the NFL level, he has previously been a defensive line coach for the San Francisco 49ers (2005-2006), Indianapolis Colts (2012-2017), and the New York Giants (2018-2019).
LB Coach: Frank Bush - Frank Bush has been coaching in the NFL since 1993. He's worked in a variety of roles over the course of his career but has specifically been the linebackers coach for the Houston Oilers (1993-1994), Denver Broncos (1995-1999), Arizona Cardinals (2004-2006), Tennessee Titans (2011-2012), St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams (2013-2016), and Miami Dolphins (2017-2018). He also served as the New York Jets interim defensive coordinator last year after Gregg Williams was fired.
OLB Coach: Ted Monachino - Ted Monachino will be spending his first year with the Atlanta Falcons in 2021. At the NFL level, he's been a defensive line coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars (2006-2009), an outside linebackers coach for the Baltimore Ravens (2010-2015), a defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts (2016-2017), and an outside linebackers coach for the Chicago Bears (2019-2020).
Secondary Coach: Jon Hoke - Jon Hoke is new to the Atlanta Falcons coaching staff in 2021, but has been coaching football since 1992. At the NFL level, he's been a defensive backs coach for the Houston Texans (2002-2008), Chicago Bears (2009-2014), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2016-2018).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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