Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Hitters Delivering Elite Results - Part 9

Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 16. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

We're onto our ninth edition of fantasy baseball hitter breakouts or fake outs. We've been delivering results week after week, and hopefully, you've been capitalizing on the analysis we provide. Expected stats can feel a bit overwhelming at first, but they generally lead us to the right results more often than not.

Heading into Week 16, we still need to do a bit of digging to help you find those diamonds in the rough that can help you win your fantasy championship. Buying into current hype can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.

We'll break down four more hitters for you this week. With a small break thanks to the All-Star Game, you may have a chance to make moves on these players with fewer eyes on them. We will determine who's real and who isn't among Roman Anthony, Spencer Steer, Addison Barger, and Zach McKinstry. Now, let's get into it. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, July 13.

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Roman Anthony, OF/DH, Boston Red Sox

2025 Stats: .777 OPS, 117 OPS+, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 19 R, 2 SB

Boston's top prospect got off to a bit of a slow start after making his major league debut in early June. He collected just five hits in his first 44 AB, just a .114 batting average with a .518 OPS. But he's flipped the switch since then and has a .967 OPS in the last 16 games. Is he flashing his true talent, or is this more of a flash in the pan for Boston's top prospect? Let's dig in.

Roman Anthony's first Fenway homer goes a loooong way! pic.twitter.com/2O2WfTzZwz

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 8, 2025

From a plate approach perspective, he's kept things relatively consistent between what he did in the minors and what he's doing in the big show. His 12.1% walk rate is a bit below what he posted in Triple-A the past two seasons (18.9% in 2024 and 19.2% in 2025), but those numbers are a bit unrealistic for a rookie in the majors. Still, he's walking at about the same rate as Baltimore's Ryan O'Hearn, and his 12.2% walk rate ranks in the 86th percentile.

So, even though he's not walking as much, the number is still more than acceptable. As far as strikeouts go, his 21.8% strikeout rate is in line with his numbers across the minors in 2024 and just about identical to the 21.1% rate he posted in Triple-A this year. It wouldn't hurt to see it lower, but it's fine where it's at.

His batted-ball profile does show a slight growing trend that we'd like to see reversed somewhat. His ground-ball rate sits at 58.2% this season. That rate generally sat in the mid-high 40s for most of his minor league career until this year, when it shot up to 52.2%. It's not that he can't succeed in hitting groundballs more often than not; it's just making it tougher on himself.

His fly-ball rate is currently sitting at 27.8%. That's higher than what he posted in Triple-A this season, but we'd really like to see that in the high-30s to instill a bit more confidence. Throughout the minors, he has generally had a very low fly-ball rate, which has consistently hovered around 25%. So it may just be his hitting profile, but more balls in the air wouldn't hurt.

The high ground-ball rate is also leading to a lower line drive rate for Anthony, as he's posting just a 13.9% number in the majors. He's generally been in the mid-20s throughout the minors, so there may be a bit of a learning curve he's fighting through right now, but hopefully, more line drives are in store for the 21-year-old.

As we move onto the expected stats, we can see they're certainly projecting more for Anthony. His .347 wOBA is paired with a .366 xwOBA. Not a huge jump, but any positive regression is a good sign for hitters. His .338 BABIP would suggest some negative regression, but his minor league profile consistently showcased a higher-than-average BABIP.

He also has a hard-hit rate of 55.7%, placing him alongsideJonathan Aranda and James Wood. That rate's in the 98th percentile, which is fantastic to see. As long as he keeps hitting the ball hard, he'll be able to keep taking advantage of balls in play.

It's a 9-game hitting streak for Roman Anthony!

He's the youngest @RedSox hitter with a 9-game hit streak since 1965 (Tony Conigliaro). pic.twitter.com/ByTpJdK0wC

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) July 13, 2025

With how pitchers have attacked him, it's been made clear that he's got three pitches he really loves to crush. Those would be sliders, sinkers, and changeups. He sees sliders the second most of any pitch at a 16.7% rate. He's hitting them for a .440 wOBA with a .411 xwOBA. Yes, there's a bit of luck there, but a .411 xwOBA is a fantastic floor to have.

Sinkers may be the pitch that pitchers need to stop throwing to him altogether. He's hitting them for a crazy .443 wOBA, and that's paired with an even crazier .522 xwOBA. Changeups have a high floor as well, with Anthony hitting them for a .374 wOBA to go along with a .400 xwOBA. These three pitches are how Anthony is doing the majority of his damage.

Two very clear weaknesses would be curveballs and sweepers. He's hitting curves for a .245 wOBA that's paired with a .197 xwOBA. A bad result with a much worse floor. He hits sweepers for a .180 wOBA, and that's paired with an .085 xwOBA.

While Anthony has clearly excelled in some areas, it's the breaking pitches that I'd expect pitchers to start turning to more often with him. If a pitcher is avoiding sliders but focuses more on sweepers and curves, they'll do fine against the 21-year-old.

Verdict: The key point to note here is that Anthony's sample size of over 124 PAs doesn't yet paint the whole picture. We'd love to see more flyballs and line drives from him, resulting in fewer groundballs, and that should yield him better results.

We also need to see how pitchers start adjusting to him. With offspeed and sinkers being a clear strength, and breaking balls being a clear weakness, pitchers should be making their change on him soon.

The one constant is that he hits the ball incredibly hard, and that should help keep him out of danger more often than not. I'm not ready to say that the positive regression is going to hit the numbers as expected, but I don't think we're looking at someone whose OPS+ will drop below 100. Hold onto Anthony and see where things go before making any roster decisions with him.

Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, Cincinnati Reds

2025 Stats: .713 OPS, 93 OPS+, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 39 R, 6 SB

It's been a while since Steer has really been a force at the plate. His 2023 season showed a lot of promise with him racking up 23 homers on the way to a 117 OPS+. Since then, it's been multiple subpar seasons for the 27-year-old, only posting an OPS+ in the mid-90s.

And though his current OPS+ is just 93, maybe that's all due to the fault of a very slow start to the season. In Steer's first 24 games, he posted a .519 OPS. But that's steadily been creeping upwards as he's now posting an .840 OPS since the beginning of June. Now, is this hot streak showing us something real? Or is this breakout more of a fake-out?

SPENCER STEER HITS HIS THIRD HOMER OF THE NIGHT! pic.twitter.com/4Ru68zjQjD

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 28, 2025

Let's start with his plate approach, as we always do. We're seeing two concerning trends with Steer this season. The first is a rise in strikeouts. His strikeout rate is up from 20.9% last season to 23.9% this season. That's not a drastic change, but it's something to consider.

His walk rate, on the other hand, has taken a more concerning drop. He's posted three straight seasons with a walk rate of 10% or better, which is great to see. This season, it has dropped down to 6.8%, placing him in the 31st percentile, after being in the 83rd percentile last season.

That may indicate that he's simply not seeing the ball as well anymore or that he's swinging more. And his swing rate is indeed up, going from 44.5% last season to 48% this season. That's correlated with a drop in contact as well. Not what we want to see right off the bat.

Heading into his batted ball profile, we don't see a ton of concerning changes. His ground-ball rate has dropped a couple of percentage points from 37.4% last season to 35.6% this season. That's a very acceptable number to have.

He's seeing his fly-ball rate drop, though, from 44.3% last season to 39.7% this season. The good news here is that a decrease in groundballs and a decrease in flyballs means an increase in line drives. That rate is up from 18.3% last year to 24.7% this year. That usually indicates hard-hit balls, and that typically leads to good results.

Spencer Steer slugs his 11th homer of the year and the @Reds are up early 💪 pic.twitter.com/yBRHYGMvKa

— MLB (@MLB) July 10, 2025

As we move to the expected stats, we start to get more concerned about what we're seeing. Though he plays for the Reds, his Baseball Savant page has too many shades of blue. Bad joke, I know, but I had to.

Though he's hitting for a .313 wOBA, that's being paired with a .285 xwOBA. That ranks in the 12th percentile, indicating that the 27-year-old's recent breakout may be influenced by a significant amount of luck. His .306 BABIP indicates that the results in play are fairly accurate, so perhaps the negative regression won't be as sharp, but it's coming one way or another.

If we look back at the high line-drive rate, I mentioned that generally means you're hitting the ball hard. In Steer's case, he's not. His hard-hit rate of 30.4% ranks in the 12th percentile. It tells us he's not really hitting screaming line drives all that often; instead, those line drives are likely dinky hits that are just clearing the reach of the infielders.

As we move on to how pitchers attack him, it's clear to see that he doesn't have a super high floor on any pitch he's faced this season. Pitchers have mainly attacked him with four-seam fastballs, throwing them at a 34.3% rate. He's hitting them for a .332 wOBA, but that's paired with a .292 xwOBA. The biggest amount of negative regression will come here.

The pitch he sees second-most is sinkers. This may actually be the strongest pitch for him as a hitter. He's hitting them for a .312 wOBA that's paired with a .328 xwOBA. Not a great number, but certainly something we can work with.

The third pitch he sees is a slider. He's not hitting them particularly well already with a .296 wOBA, but that's paired with an even worse .257 xwOBA. If pitchers throw him a curveball, that wOBA is only .233, and it has an xwOBA of .165, definitely not a number we want to see.

Two pitches that Steer doesn't see a ton of, but does well against, are cutters and changeups. He hits cutters for a .398 wOBA that's paired with a .320 xwOBA. He hits changeups for a .446 wOBA, and those are paired with a .345 xwOBA. If there's an area where he'll still see good results, regardless of positive or negative regression, it's with these two pitches.

Verdict: Steer is very clearly a fake-out. By swinging more often this season, and not hitting the ball as hard, he's finding it tougher to get more productive hits. The line drives he's hitting seem to be relatively lucky results, and he's been getting lucky on the pitches he's been hitting well.

The pitches he'll continue to do well against simply are ones he won't see often. He's not hitting the ball hard, he's not walking, and he's striking out more. This isn't a great recipe for success the rest of the season.

Fantasy managers should sell Steer. The season's overall stats won't sell him to other managers well, but maybe his production in June will. If he's on your roster, see if any other managers are willing to bite.

Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

2025 Stats: .823 OPS, 124 OPS+, 13 HR, 40 RBI, 38 R, 3 SB

Maybe one of the more overlooked pieces of Toronto's lineup, Barger has turned it on as of late. He's posting a .984 OPS in July and has been one of Toronto's best hitters since the beginning of June. It's hard to believe that he started the season in Triple-A. But is what he's doing in the majors for real? Let's dive in.

Addison Barger is on another PLANET right now 😳 pic.twitter.com/mhILDpCzS5

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) June 7, 2025

Let's start with his plate approach. Much of it is similar to his 69-game stint in the big leagues last year. His walk rate is up from 6.2% to 7.1% while his strikeout rate is down from 26.7% to 24.8%. Minor changes, but both in positive directions.

One thing that's been different for him between the minors and the majors is that in the minor leagues, his walk rate has been significantly higher, often sitting at 11% or higher. An improvement in that direction would be greatly beneficial for Barger.

As we look at his batted-ball profile, it's pretty unique in that he hits groundballs and flyballs at the same rate. Both his ground-ball rate and fly-ball rate sit at 39.7% while his line drive rate sits at 20.7%. This is a relatively good distribution of results from the outset.

Things are moving in the right direction compared to last season as well. His ground-ball rate sat at 42.3% in 2024 while his fly-ball rate sat at 36.2%.

We're also seeing an increase in his HR/FB rate, as it has jumped from 13.0% last season to 18.3% this season. With 13 homers already on the season, he can be expected to finish with 20+ once all is said and done.

As we move onto the expected stats on Baseball Savant, the first thing you'll notice is a lot of red up top. His .349 wOBA is paired with a .369 xwOBA, which ranks in the 85th percentile. More in the tank should excite both fantasy managers and Blue Jay fans alike.

Addison Barger’s Walk-Off HR:

109.3 MPH
27 Degree LA
408 FT
.990 xBA
HR in 30/30 Parks

The Barger breakout season has arrived! He now has 8 HR and a 128 wRC+#LightsUpLetsGo pic.twitter.com/3LeGS3kLqd

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) June 18, 2025

With more good news, he's got a .307 BABIP. Given the number is not outrageously high, it suggests his results have been fairly accurate.

As we move onto the pitch mix he sees, we see relatively good things happening with the four pitches he sees most often. As with most hitters, he sees four-seamers the most, hitting them for a .328 wOBA paired with a .359 xwOBA. A significant portion of the positive regression we expect will come from here.

Another massive chunk of positive regression will come from changeups. Right now, he's gotten rather underwhelming results off changeups, hitting them for just a .261 wOBAm, but that's paired with a .432 xwOBA. That's a huge gap on a pitch he sees 13.3% of the time.

We've also discussed this extensively in past articles about how four-seamers and changeups complement each other. With Barger expecting positive regression on both pitches, that will likely end up being a very bad idea.

Two pitches that he struggles with, and the expected stats say he'll continue to struggle with, are curveballs and sweepers. He's hitting curves for a .156 wOBA that's paired with a .161 xwOBA. He hits sweepers for a .192 wOBA to go along with a .202 xwOBA.

With poor results on those two pitches and very low ceilings to go with them, I'd expect pitchers to eventually attack him more with curves and sweepers. If they stay with a four-seam and changeup combo, they'll likely pay the price, though.

Verdict: Barger has been a great source of unexpected production for the Blue Jays. His continued success has carved out a role for the rest of the season. Now with better production expected to be on the way, he should surpass any and all expectations the team had for him. Expect his OPS+ to jump up to around 130 or 135 here shortly, making him a player fantasy managers should certainly buy into.

Zach McKinstry, 3B/SS/OF, Detroit Tigers

2025 Stats: .836 OPS, 133 OPS+, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 49 R, 15 SB

Does it seem like everyone in Detroit this season is performing at such a high level? McKinstry is no exception, as his 133 OPS+ is easily a career high and a massive jump over his 74 OPS+ last season.

He's only had one poor month this year with an iffy May, but has turned it on since then, hitting for a .891 OPS in June and a 1.031 OPS in 11 games in July. But is what he's doing for real?

Zach McKinstry has been one of the unsung heroes in fantasy this season.

Since June 1st:

.321 AVG
5 HR
12 RBI
21 Runs
12 SBpic.twitter.com/XnE92Azzow

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) July 12, 2025

Let's start with the plate approach. The first thing we notice is that his walk rate has increased significantly, rising from 7.4% last season to 10.3% this season. His eye for the ball appears to be better this season, and he's swinging slightly less, resulting in more walks.

His strikeout rate is about the same as last season, going from 21.2% last season to 21.8% this season. With no negligible difference, we can assume his eye is simply a bit better this season due to more walks.

Moving onto his batted-ball profile, we're seeing quite a bit of movement with his results. His ground-ball rate has jumped from 32.8% to 37.3% this season. Not a concerning high number, so it's fine where it's at, even if it's higher than last season.

His fly-ball rate may be a bit more concerning, though, as it has dropped by 10%. It was at 42.4% last season and now it's down to 32.7%. The most productive hits generally happen with flyballs, so this drop is a bit concerning.

Some of the negative effects of that drop have been stymied, though, as his line-drive rate is up significantly. It's risen from 24.9% last season to 30.0% this season. If a drop in flyballs is going to result in another type of batted ball, a line drive is a perfect choice for it.

Ever notice how lately whenever something good happens with the Tigers, Zach McKinstry and Wenceel Pérez are right in the middle of it?

Both of these guys -- extremely underrated. 😤 pic.twitter.com/A12vsVlx4J

— Benson (Miguel Cabrera’s Bat) (@Miggysbat) June 25, 2025

As we move onto the expected stats, we start to see that maybe there's some fool's gold here. His .361 wOBA is paired with a .324 xwOBA that ranks in the 41st percentile. That's a big chunk of negative regression that's expected to hit McKinstry.

As we examine BABIP to determine if negative regression can be attributed to it, his .349 BABIP certainly suggests that some luck has been a factor in his results. His BABIP has only been above .300 in one of his six seasons, but that was in 2020, when he played in only four games.

As we evaluated with Steer, the high line-drive rate can sometimes indicate a higher hard-hit rate. Unfortunately, that's not the case with McKinstry, as his 32.6% hard hit rate only ranks in the 15th percentile. This validates the negative regression that xwOBA and BABIP are both predicting.

As we move to how pitchers attack him, we can notice negative regression expected for him on the four pitches that he sees the most: Four-seam fastballs, sliders, sinkers, and changeups. These make up 73% of the pitches he faces.

He hits four-seamers for a .395 wOBA to go along with a .367 xwOBA. Even though there's a drop, a .367 xwOBA is a decent floor to have. Sliders are the pitch he faces second-most, and the results aren't as good there. He hits them for a .264 wOBA to go along with a .248 xwOBA, a clear weakness.

Sinkers and changeups are both pitches he's crushed this year, but, as we mentioned, both are expected to experience negative regression. He hits sinkers for a .424 wOBA that's paired with a .332 xwOBA. That's a massive drop-off that's going to hurt the 30-year-old's overall production.

For changeups, he's hit them for a .382 wOBA that's paired with a .358 xwOBA. Same as four-seamers, this isn't a bad floor to have for a pitch that's expecting negative regression. However, the expected drop from sinkers will significantly hurt his production.

One pitch that he's expecting positive regression on is curveballs. He's currently hitting them for a .296 wOBA, but that's paired with a .352 xwOBA. He only sees curves 8.4% of the time, but he'll be posting better results on them shortly.

Verdict: McKinstry is significantly outperforming his career norms, but he's likely to regress sooner rather than later. Because he doesn't hit the ball all that hard, it's going to be tougher for him to stave off negative regression, and it will likely hit him hard.

Expect his OPS+ to drop from his current 133 mark down to around 110 or 105. He'll be better than he has been in past seasons, but he's benefited from quite a bit of luck so far. Sell on him if possible and see if any fantasy managers are willing to bite, so you can let them deal with the negative regression in the second half.

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