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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Dallas Cowboys' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
Outside of firing defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, the Dallas Cowboys will be bringing back many of their key coaching staff members from the 2020 season. Mike McCarthy will return as the Cowboys head coach and Kellen Moore will be back as the team's offensive coordinator. Dan Quinn will be the new defensive coordinator, replacing Mike Nolan.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Cowboys players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Cowboys coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Cowboys' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Dallas Cowboys' fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at one of the key members of the Dallas Cowboys' previous coaching staff: former defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Defensive Coordinator: Mike Nolan
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2014 Falcons | 16 | 26.06 | 279.88 | 118.38 | 64.88 | 6.14 | 1.75 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 29.56 | 227.63 | 158.81 | 65.88 | 5.87 | 1.44 |
| Nolan's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 352 | 21.72 | 216.20 | 118.64 | 64.44 | 5.20 | 1.76 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Mike McCarthy has been the Dallas Cowboys head coach since 2020. Prior to joining the Cowboys, McCarthy spent five seasons as the New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator (2000-2004), one season as the San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator (2005), and 13 seasons as the Green Bay Packers head coach (2006-2018). Given McCarthy's offensive background, let's take a look at what his offenses have done in the past at the NFL level to get a better understanding of how the Cowboys' offense may operate in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2018 Packers | 12 | 39.25 | 296.58 | 1.75 | 2.67 | 14 | 0 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 39.94 | 281.88 | 1.56 | 3.44 | 16.06 | 0.19 |
| McCarthy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 316 | 34.77 | 254.43 | 1.78 | 3.78 | 16.03 | 0.14 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2018 Packers | 12 | 18.33 | 86.67 | 0.75 | 4.33 | 6.5 | 36.58 | 0.08 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 22 | 89.88 | 0.63 | 5 | 6.94 | 33.13 | 0.19 |
| McCarthy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 316 | 21.29 | 89.53 | 0.57 | 4.03 | 5.44 | 31.42 | 0.10 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2018 Packers | 12 | 14.67 | 23.33 | 197.42 | 1.33 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 16 | 24.88 | 202.19 | 1.06 |
| McCarthy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 316 | 13.15 | 21.93 | 179.79 | 1.30 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2018 Packers | 12 | 5.17 | 8 | 62.58 | 0.33 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 4.69 | 6.56 | 46.06 | 0.25 |
| McCarthy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 316 | 3.67 | 5.77 | 39.09 | 0.32 |
Mike McCarthy Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of Mike McCarthy's 316 game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his offenses have averaged 34.77 passing attempts per game. In his past two years as a head coach with the Green Bay Packers (2018) and the Dallas Cowboys (2020), the usage has been much higher than that, with the Packers attempting 39.25 passes per game under him in 2018 and the Cowboys attempting 39.94 passes per game in 2020. The recent passing usage is extremely encouraging to see and a good sign for Dak Prescott's passing ceiling in 2021.
But besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of McCarthy's quarterbacks over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Over the course of his career, McCarthy's quarterbacks have averaged 3.78 carries per game.
Mike McCarthy's offense historically has been fairly average in providing passing opportunities for his team and rushing attempts for his quarterbacks. But given the recent trend of a high number of McCarthy's teams attempting a high number of passing attempts, Dak Prescott is looking like a strong option in fantasy leagues and should be valued as an upper-end QB1 for the 2021 season.
Looking at the running back position, Mike McCarthy has been suspect in utilizing the group. Over the course of his career, McCarthy's tailbacks have averaged 21.29 carries and 0.57 rushing touchdowns per game.
These numbers for a running back room are slightly below the league average and a little discouraging to see if you are rostering Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard in your fantasy league.
But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that McCarthy has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is McCarthy typically rolling with a bell-cow approach at the position or a running back by committee approach?
Examining the data, for most of Mike McCarthy's career, he has preferred to take a bell-cow approach but has toned it down slightly in more recent years. Under McCarthy, Ezekiel Elliott should continue to see the majority of the Cowboys' tailbacks carries.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Mike McCarthy's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, McCarthy's running back room has averaged 5.44 targets per game - which is below average.
Perhaps most concerning is the fact that McCarthy only had one season in his twenty-year career as an offensive coordinator or head coach where his tailbacks saw more than eight targets per game. This is frustrating to see if you are rostering one of the Dallas Cowboys running backs in your fantasy leagues, as it is clear that McCarthy has a negative influence on his running backs usage.
Looking at the wide receiver position, McCarthy's offense has provided his wide receivers with 21.93 targets per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
This career average is above-average compared to other play-callers, and he's utilized the position even more in recent years with the Packers wide receiver room averaging 23.33 targets per game in 2018 and the Cowboys wide receiver room averaging 24.88 targets per game in 2020. This is great news if you are rostering one of the Cowboys' receivers and means that there's room for multiple Cowboys wideouts to be fantasy-relevant in 2021.
Lastly, McCarthy's historical usage of tight ends is subpar. Over the course of his 316 game career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Mike McCarthy's tight end room has averaged 5.77 targets per game.
This career usage is a little discouraging if you were planning on taking a shot on one of the Dallas Cowboys' tight ends last in drafts. Overall, in most fantasy leagues, you should be able to find better tight end targets than Blake Jarwin or Dalton Schultz.
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Kellen Moore
Kellen Moore has been the Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator since 2019. Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some statistics from the offenses that Kellen Moore has coordinated.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Cowboys | 16 | 37.31 | 306.38 | 1.88 | 3.25 | 17.31 | 0.19 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 39.94 | 281.88 | 1.56 | 3.44 | 16.06 | 0.19 |
| Moore's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 38.63 | 294.13 | 1.72 | 3.34 | 16.69 | 0.19 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Cowboys | 16 | 24.19 | 113.25 | 0.88 | 4.31 | 5.69 | 32.94 | 0.19 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 22 | 89.88 | 0.63 | 5 | 6.94 | 33.13 | 0.19 |
| Moore's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 23.09 | 101.56 | 0.75 | 4.66 | 6.31 | 33.03 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Cowboys | 16 | 14 | 22.31 | 217.19 | 1.25 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 16 | 24.88 | 202.19 | 1.06 |
| Moore's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 15 | 23.59 | 209.69 | 1.16 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Cowboys | 16 | 5.94 | 7.88 | 56.25 | 0.44 |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 4.69 | 6.56 | 46.06 | 0.25 |
| Moore's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 5.31 | 7.22 | 51.16 | 0.34 |
Kellen Moore Takeaways & Expectations
While Mike McCarthy has been a play-caller in the past, it was actually offensive coordinator Kellen Moore who called the plays on gameday last year. In Kellen Moore's 32 game career as an offensive coordinator, his team's offenses have averaged 38.63 passing attempts per game - which well above league average. This is a great sign for Dak Prescott's passing usage and means that he should see a decent passing workload in 2021. In addition, Moore's quarterbacks have averaged 3.34 carries per game over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator.
Overall, Dak Prescott should be a decent fantasy value whether it's Kellen Moore or Mike McCarthy calling the plays based on his pure talent. But for the team to maximize the number of opportunities for Dak and put him in the best position to succeed, Moore is going to be the one to call the plays.
Jumping to the running back position, Kellen Moore has generally been pretty good in providing the position work. Moore's running backs have averaged 23.09 carries and 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game over the course of his 32 game career as an offensive coordinator.
This usage shows that with Kellen Moore handling offensive play-calling duties, the team will feed their running backs more than it would with Mike McCarthy. But besides the number of carries going to the entire running back room, we also need to consider how much of the work on the ground Moore is giving to one tailback versus multiple backs.
Looking at the data it's clear that Kellen Moore has liked the bell-cow approach thus far in his career, as he gave his lead back Ezekiel Elliott 301 carries in 2019 and 244 carries in 2020. This is great news if you are rostering Ezekiel Elliott in your fantasy football league and gives him a high floor for the 2021 season.
Finally, Moore gives his running backs an average amount of work in the passing game with his tailbacks seeing 6.31 targets per game.
Regardless of who calls the plays on the Cowboys, the team will likely be average or below average in featuring the tailbacks in the passing game. Overall, Kellen Moore is a significantly better play-caller for the Cowboys' running backs than Mike McCarthy, and if you roster one of the Cowboys' backs you should be rooting for Moore to maintain play-calling duties. Ezekiel Elliott will likely be a low-end RB1 with Moore as the play-caller but could drop into RB2 territory if McCarthy takes over duties at any point this year.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, over the course of his 32 game career as an offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore has seen his wide receiver room average 23.59 targets per game.
This usage is extremely encouraging to see and suggests that it is indeed possible for the Dallas Cowboys to support multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers in the 2021 season. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup should all be solid investments for this season if Kellen Moore sticks to his old ways with his play-calling.
Lastly, Moore's historical usage of tight ends is solid. Over the course of his 32 game career as an offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore's tight end room has averaged 7.22 targets per game.
It's good for the Dallas Cowboys' tight ends that Kellen Moore is the primary play-caller and not Mike McCarthy. While you probably shouldn't draft Blake Jarwin or Dalton Schultz in your fantasy league, it's a good idea to put them on your waiver wire watch list as long as Kellen Moore is the team's primary offensive play-caller.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Dak Prescott, Garrett Gilbert, Cooper Rush, Ben DiNucci, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown, Cedrick Wilson, Blake Jarwin, and Dalton Schultz
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Dan Quinn
Dan Quinn is new to the Dallas Cowboys coaching staff in 2021 after spending 85 games as the Atlanta Falcons head coach (2015-2020). Prior to his job as the Atlanta Falcons head coach, Quinn spent two years as the Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator (2013-2014). Because of his defensive background let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Quinn's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role to get some insight into how the Dallas Cowboys defense should look in 2021.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Falcons | 16 | 24.94 | 244.88 | 110.94 | 61.56 | 5.78 | 1.25 |
| 2020 Falcons | 5 | 32.2 | 335.8 | 110.2 | 68 | 6.56 | 1 |
| Quinn's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 117 | 21.66 | 231.20 | 104.89 | 62.56 | 5.37 | 1.44 |
Dan Quinn will be working with one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a year ago, and have an uphill battle in getting them to perform at a league-average level - in particular against the run (gave up 158.81 rushing yards per game last year). Looking at his career averages, his teams have generally been above average in points allowed per game, passing yards given up per game, rushing yards given up per game, yards given up per play, and turnovers forced per game. But in recent years, Quinn's defenses have struggled more and generally been below average in points allowed, passing yards given up per game, yards per play, and turnovers forced. One could argue it was because of the lack of talent on the Falcons, but then again the Cowboys won't have the most talented defense in the league either. It's likely the Cowboys make at least a little progress from the Mike Nolan-coached defense from a year ago, but they shouldn't be drafted in fantasy leagues for the 2021 season since the team will likely be involved in a lot of shootouts.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: John Fassel - John Fassel has been the Dallas Cowboys special teams coordinator since 2020. Prior to joining the Cowboys, Fassel had spent time as the special teams coordinator for the Oakland Raiders (2008-2011) and St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams (2012-2019). At the NFL level he's also served as an assistant special teams coach for the Baltimore Ravens (2005-2007) and as the interim head coach of the Los Angeles Rams (2016).
QB Coach: Doug Nussmeier - Doug Nussmeier has been with the Dallas Cowboys since 2018, spending time as a tight ends coach (2018-2019) prior to becoming the team's quarterbacks coach in 2020. From 2001 to 2017, he was a quarterbacks coach for a variety of football teams but most notably spent two years as the St. Louis Rams quarterbacks coach (2006-2007). He also was one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL history to be left-handed, playing for the New Orleans Saints (1994-1997) and Indianapolis Colts (1998).
RB Coach: Skip Peete - In 2020, Skip Peete entered his second stint as the Dallas Cowboys running backs coach after previously serving in the same role from 2007 to 2012. Besides his time with the Cowboys, Peete has also been a running backs coach at the NFL level for the Oakland Raiders (1998-2006), Chicago Bears (2013-2014), and Los Angeles Rams (2016-2019).
WR Coach: Adam Henry - Adam Henry has been the Dallas Cowboys wide receivers coach since 2020. At the NFL level, he has previously worked as a wide receivers coach for the San Francisco 49ers (2015), New York Giants (2016-2017), and Cleveland Browns (2018-2019).
TE Coach: Lunda Wells - Lunda Wells has been the Dallas Cowboys tight ends coach since 2020. Prior to joining the Cowboys, Wells spent his entire NFL coaching career with the New York Giants, working as an offensive assistant (2012), assistant offensive line coach (2013-2017), and tight ends coach (2018-2019).
OL Coach: Joe Philbin - Joe Philbin has been the Dallas Cowboys offensive line coach since 2020. He's been coaching at the college and NFL levels since 1984 and has previously served as an offensive line coach at the NFL level for the Green Bay Packers (2006) and Indianapolis Colts (2016-2017). He's also served as an offensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers (2007-2011, 2018) and as a head coach for the Miami Dolphins (2012-2015).
DL Coach: Aden Durde - Aden Durde is new to the Dallas Cowboys coaching staff in 2021 and will serve as the team's defensive line coach. He has previously worked as a defensive quality control coach (2018-2019) and an outside linebackers coach (2020) for the Atlanta Falcons.
LB Coach: Scott McCurley - Scott McCurley has been the Dallas Cowboys linebackers coach since 2020. He previously spent his entire coaching career for the Green Bay Packers working in a variety of roles from 2006 to 2018.
DB Coach: Al Harris - Al Harris has worked with the Cowboys' secondary since 2020. As a coach he previously worked for the Miami Dolphins as a coaching intern (2012) and for the Kansas City Chiefs as an assistant secondary coach/defensive assistant (2013-2018). He also played cornerback at the NFL level for the Philadelphia Eagles (1998-2002), Green Bay Packers (2003-2010), Miami Dolphins (2010), and St. Louis Rams (2011) making two Pro Bowls (2007 & 2008).
Secondary Coach: Joe Whitt Jr. - Joe Whitt Jr. is new to the Dallas Cowboys coaching staff in 2021 after spending the 2020 season as the secondary coach of the Atlanta Falcons. At the NFL level, he has previously worked in a variety of roles, but some of his more notable ones are as the cornerbacks' coach of the Green Bay Packers (2009-2017) and as the secondary coach of the Cleveland Browns (2019).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons
NFC North: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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