RADIO
Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Washington Football Team's coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that managed to maintain their core coaching staff this offseason was the Washington Football Team, with head coach Ron Rivera, offensive coordinator Scott Turner, and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio all returning for the 2021-22 season.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Football Team players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Washington Football Teams' coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Washington Football Teams' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
2021 Offense
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Scott Turner
After a four-game stint with the Carolina Panthers as an interim play-caller at the end of the 2019 season, Scott Turner was brought on to be the Washington Football Team's offensive coordinator in 2020. Given Turner's offensive background, let's take a look at what his offenses have done in the past at the NFL level to get a better understanding of how Washington's offense might look in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Panthers | 4 | 44 | 276.25 | 0.5 | 5 | 19 | 0.25 |
| 2020 Football Team | 16 | 37.56 | 237.25 | 1 | 2.5 | 6.06 | 0.13 |
| Turner's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 20 | 38.85 | 245.05 | 0.9 | 3 | 8.65 | 0.15 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Panthers | 4 | 14.75 | 60.75 | 0.75 | 10.75 | 12.25 | 100 | 0 |
| 2020 Football Team | 16 | 21.81 | 88.63 | 1 | 7.5 | 10.06 | 53 | 0.13 |
| Turner's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 20 | 20.4 | 83.05 | 0.95 | 8.15 | 10.5 | 62.4 | 0.1 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Panthers | 4 | 12 | 22 | 135.25 | 0.25 |
| 2020 Football Team | 16 | 12.13 | 18.44 | 141.25 | 0.5 |
| Turner's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 20 | 12.1 | 19.15 | 140.05 | 0.45 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Panthers | 4 | 4 | 8.25 | 41 | 0.25 |
| 2020 Football Team | 16 | 4.69 | 7.25 | 43 | 0.38 |
| Turner's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 20 | 4.55 | 7.45 | 42.6 | 0.35 |
Scott Turner Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of Scott Turner's 20 games as an NFL offensive play-caller, his offenses have averaged 38.85 passing attempts per game - which is well above the league average. In addition, over the course of his career as a play-caller, Turner's quarterback room has averaged three carries per game.
This rushing usage under Scott Turner is a little below average for the quarterback, but overall the number of passing attempts should be more than enough to offset it. Based on this information, the Football Team's starting quarterback should have at least some streamer appeal in fantasy leagues for 2021.
Examining Scott Turner's running back rooms over the course of his career, there is a lot to be encouraged about. Over the course of the 20 games that Turner has been a play-caller, his running back room has averaged 20.4 carries and 0.95 rushing touchdowns per game.
The number of running back carries per game under Scott Turner has been fairly mediocre, but his backs have made up for it with their efficiency in scoring rushing touchdowns.
This is a great sign if you plan on rostering one of Washington's running backs in your fantasy league. But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that Turner has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is Turner rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Looking at the data, Scott Turner has been willing to take a heavy bell-cow approach on the ground (2019) or a more committee-oriented approach (2020) based on the players he is working with. If Turner believes that Antonio Gibson has improved enough to warrant anything similar to the massive percentage of running back carries that Christian McCaffrey got in 2019, Gibson will have one of the highest ceilings in all of fantasy in 2021 and legitimate top-five potential.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Scott Turner's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Scott Turner's running back room has averaged a whopping 10.5 targets per game.
This usage is the best mark in the league among active offensive-minded head coaches and offensive coordinators who have previously coached at the NFL level.
This receiving upside is extremely encouraging to see if you are rostering one of the Washington Football Team's running backs. If Antonio Gibson can eat into J.D. McKissic's receiving workload more in 2021 (which is very possible based on his previous background as a wide receiver at the college level), he will be one of the most valuable running backs in fantasy football. Overall, this is an offense whose running backs you should invest in as long as Scott Turner is the offensive coordinator.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, Turner has provided his wide receivers with 19.15 targets per game over the course of his 20 game career as an offensive coordinator.
This raw number is slightly below the league average. But it gets a little more concerning when you realize that this number is slightly inflated by the high passing volume and the overall percentage of targets going to wide receivers is very low relative to other NFL play-callers.
What this suggests is that the Washington Football Team's wide receivers may have a harder time seeing their volume (targets) increase under Scott Turner since he hasn't prioritized the position as much as other play-callers. If you plan on investing in Terry McLaurin or Curtis Samuel, you are doing so because you are confident they will be efficient with Ryan Fitzpatrick or Taylor Heinicke - not because you think they will be among the league leaders in targets.
Lastly, Turner's historical usage of tight ends has been above-average. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator, Turner's tight end room has averaged 7.45 targets per game.
In his young career, Scott Turner has been pretty reliable in feeding his tight ends. Based on this information, Logan Thomas should have a solid opportunity to finish as a TE1 once again.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Peyton Barber, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, Cam Sims, Logan Thomas, and John Bates
2021 Defense
2021 Head Coach: Ron Rivera
Ron Rivera has been the Washington Football Team's head coach since 2020. Prior to taking the job in Washington, Rivera served as a defensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears (2004-2006) and San Diego Chargers (2008-2010), as well as the head coach of the Carolina Panthers (2011-2019). Given his defensive background, let's take a look at some team defensive statistics during Ron Rivera's career as a defensive coordinator or head coach.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Panthers | 12 | 26.67 | 229.17 | 137.5 | 65.25 | 5.62 | 1.67 |
| 2020 Football Team | 16 | 20.56 | 191.75 | 112.81 | 62.75 | 4.85 | 1.44 |
| Rivera's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 252 | 20.84 | 220.01 | 106.69 | 62.74 | 5.21 | 1.73 |
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Jack Del Rio
Jack Del Rio has been the Washington Football Team's defensive coordinator since 2020. Prior to taking the job in Washington, Del Rio had served as a defensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers (2002), as a head coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars (2003-2011), as a defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos (2012-2014), and as a head coach for the Oakland Raiders (2015-2017). Given his defensive background, let's take a look at some team defensive statistics during Jack Del Rio's career as a defensive coordinator or head coach.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 23.31 | 241.13 | 108.94 | 62.13 | 5.64 | 0.88 |
| 2020 Football Team | 16 | 20.56 | 191.75 | 112.81 | 62.75 | 4.85 | 1.44 |
| Del Rio's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 267 | 21.18 | 219.02 | 104.10 | 62.13 | 5.20 | 1.54 |
Both head coach Ron Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio have been very good at fielding quality defenses over the course of their careers. They took the Washington Football Team's defense up a notch in 2020 with the team performing above average in points allowed, passing yards given up per game, rushing yards given up per game, yards per play, and turnovers forced. This coaching duo combined with the talent on the Washington Football Team's roster makes them a top-tier D/ST fantasy option for the 2021 season.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Nate Kaczor - Nate Kaczor has been Washington's special teams' coordinator since 2019. He has been coaching since 1991 and has previously spent time in the NFL as a special teams coordinator for the Tennessee Titans (2013-2015) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2016-2018).
QB Coach: Ken Zampese - Ken Zampese has been the Washington Football Team's quarterbacks' coach since 2020. He's been coaching football in a variety of roles and levels since 1990 and has previously spent time at the NFL level as a quarterbacks coach for the Cincinnati Bengals (2003-2015) and Cleveland Browns (2018). He also served as the Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator from 2016 to 2017.
RB Coach: Randy Jordan - Randy Jordan has been Washington's running backs coach since 2014. Prior to taking this role, he previously served as a running backs coach at the college level for Nebraska (2004-2007), Texas A&M (2008-2011), and North Carolina (2012-2013). Jordan also played running back at the NFL level for the Los Angeles Raiders (1993), Jacksonville Jaguars (1995-1997), and Oakland Raiders (1998-2002).
WR Coach: Drew Terrell - 2021 will be Drew Terrell's first season as the Washington Football Team's wide receivers coach after serving as the assistant wide receivers coach in 2020. He's been coaching football at the college and NFL levels since 2014.
TE Coach: Pete Hoener - Pete Hoener has been the Washington Football Team's tight ends coach since 2020. He's been coaching football since 1975 and has previously coached tight ends at the NFL level for the St. Louis Cardinals (1985-1986), Arizona Cardinals (2001-2002), San Francisco 49ers (2005-2010), and Carolina Panthers (2011-2019) prior to taking the job in Washington.
OL Coach: John Matsko - John Matsko has been the Washington Football Team's offensive line coach since 2020. He's been coaching football since 1974 and has previously coached offensive lines at the NFL level for the Phoenix Cardinals (1992-1993), New Orleans Saints (1994-1996), New York Giants (1997-1998), St. Louis Rams (1999-2005), Kansas City Chiefs (2006-2007), Baltimore Ravens (2008-2011), and Carolina Panthers (2011-2019) prior to taking the job in Washington.
DL Coach: Sam Mills III - Sam Mills III has been the Washington Football Team's defensive line coach since 2020. He previously spent his entire coaching career with the Carolina Panthers, working as a strength and conditioning coach & defensive assistant (2005), defensive quality control coach (2006-2010), assistant defensive line coach (2011-2018), and defensive line coach (2018-2019).
LB Coach: Steve Russ - Steve Russ has been the Washington Football Team's linebackers coach since 2020. He's been coaching football since 2001 and has previously spent time coaching linebackers at the NFL level for the Carolina Panthers (2018-2019).
DB Coach: Chris Harris - Chris Harris has been the Washington Football Team's defensive backs coach since 2020. As a coach, he has previously spent time as the defensive quality control coach for the Chicago Bears (2013-2014) and as an assistant defensive backs coach for the Los Angeles Chargers (2016-2019). He also played safety in the NFL for the Chicago Bears (2005-2006, 2010-2011), Carolina Panthers (2007-2009), Detroit Lions (2011), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2012).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons
NFC North: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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