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Breakout Hitters Watch for Fantasy Baseball - Leody Taveras, Riley Greene, Seiya Suzuki

Leody Taveras - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Jon Anderson looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the fantasy baseball season, written in Week 10 of the season. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.

It's Wednesday, so we have a handful more fantasy baseball breakout hitter picks for you. This post has been a lot of fun for me to write every week, and I hope some people out there are enjoying it!

If you're new here, every week I give 4-6 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.

For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first and then we'll get into the four names we're picking for this week.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2023 Breakout Picks Tracker

Week Date Breakout Picks
Week 3 4/12 Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Gorman, Josh Lowe, Brandon Marsh
Week 4 4/19 Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, Luis Garcia, Kerry Carpenter, Brent Rooker
Week 5 4/26 Jack Suwinski, James Outman, Nico Hoerner, LaMonte Wade Jr., Cody Bellinger
Week 6 5/2 Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Jonah Heim, Edward Olivares, Jorge Mateo
Week 7 5/9 Ezequiel Duran, Triston Casas, Joey Gallo, Zach McKinstry, Ke'Bryan Hayes
Week 8 5/16 Alex Kirilloff, Matt McLain, Zach Neto, Taylor Walls
Week 9 5/23 Josh Jung, Brett Baty, Ryan Noda, Esteury Ruiz

Week 10 Picks

Leody Taveras, Texas Rangers

As if the Rangers needed any more offensive help, they're getting breakout campaigns from a couple of formerly promising young hitters. Ezequiel Duran was mentioned on this post weeks ago and he continues to hit well with a .301/.340/.515 slash line.

Joining the party recently has been Taveras, who was a hyped-up prospect a few seasons ago but so far has struggled to a .244/.299/.364 slash line in his big league career (221 games).

In 2023, however, he is slashing .321/.381/.450 with two homers and five steals across 156 PAs. He has never been thought of as a guy with real raw power, so we aren't focused much on getting dingers and RBI from him -- that does lower the ceiling a bit.

However, Taveras has had big improvements this year in the categories we really like to see improvements:

Stat 2021 2022 2023
K% 32% 26% 20%
BB% 5% 6% 9%
xBA .194 .218 .270
EV 85 87 89
GB% 55% 45% 48%

Way fewer strikeouts, hitting the ball harder, and managing the ground ball. This guy has wheels, so any line drive can turn into extra bases easily, and he's hitting a good amount of line drives this year. All of that plus the Rangers' elite offense has bolstered him to scoring 25 runs and driving in 20 already, good for a full-season pace of 100 runs and 80 RBI.

He's also attempted steals at a high rate of 17%, showcasing the fact that more steals will be on their way once he finds more opportunities. Taveras can be a sneaky good fantasy option, and he's widely available right now.

Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers

Things may have clicked for Greene in late April. He has been one of the best hitters in baseball during the month of May, putting up a .368/.439/.579 slash line with three homers and a great 11.6% Brl%.

The things Greene needed to improve on coming into 2023 were pretty clear -- strike out less and elevate the ball more.

Early on, it didn't look like he had made any improvement from 2022 in these areas. On April 24, he sat there with a 36% K% and a 58% GB% -- completely debilitating numbers for your fantasy value. Since that day, however, he's gone for a 23% K% and a 48% GB% -- huge improvements in both areas.

Those improvements have helped him put many more balls into play, and they're going in the air at a higher rate as well.

May Hard Hit Rate Leaders with K% Under 25%

Player PA HH% K%
Bryan Reynolds 104 61.3% 18.3%
Matt Olson 120 60.6% 24.2%
Juan Soto 103 60.3% 17.5%
Yordan Alvarez 105 60.0% 18.1%
J.D. Davis 101 59.7% 24.8%
Salvador Perez 97 58.6% 24.7%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 99 56.5% 24.2%
Riley Greene 107 55.1% 24.3%
Freddie Freeman 118 55.1% 16.1%
Andrew Vaughn 108 55.0% 19.4%

It's possible that these last few weeks have been flukey and he'll eventually go back to his old ways. But it's more than early enough in this guy's career to believe there was an on-switch to find and that he found it this year. Either way, Greene should be added and started in almost all league types right now as he's been among the game's best hitters for several weeks now.

Seiya Suzuki

We saw Suzuki flirt with greatness early last year when he debuted in the majors. He came out strong, limiting strikeouts and racking up a ton of barrels. That didn't last very long, however, as the league adjusted to him a bit and injuries really hampered his rookie campaign.

It didn't help that he had a late start to the 2023 campaign as well with a spring injury that cost him a few weeks, and he started off quite slow after his debut.

However, Suzuki is healthy, in the lineup everyday, and hitting the ball extremely well. Only 11 hitters can say they meet this criterion this year:

  • 150+ PA
  • Hard-Hit Rate above 50%
  • Strikeout Rate below 25%
  • Barrel Rate above 9%

Those names, in order of their PA count:

  1. Juan Soto
  2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  3. Yandy Diaz
  4. Bryan Reynolds
  5. Paul Goldschmidt
  6. Yordan Alvarez
  7. Ronald Acuna Jr.
  8. Adolis Garcia
  9. Rafael Devers
  10. Randy Arozarena
  11. Seiya Suzuki

If we were redrafting today, Suzuki would probably go several rounds behind the rest of those names. But he's been rightfully in the conversation with those names.

In May, Suzuki slashed .298/.400/.548 with a 24% K% and a 15% BB% with five homers and a steal. His 90th percentile exit velocity is way up there at 107.2 miles per hour, and he's lived quite nicely in the 10-30 degree range in terms of launch angle.

Suzuki looks like one of the game's better power hitters (although that could err on the doubles side slightly more than homers), and he can give us at least a decent batting average with a few steals in there as well -- a very solid player with tons of upside.

I'm cutting it short at three names this week. There aren't too many other hitters I feel confident about right now that we haven't already talked about. But I like these three guys a lot and I think you should go get your hands on them if possible. Thanks for reading, we'll be back next week with more!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

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Jaylen Waddle

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Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
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LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
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Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
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to Miss Rest of Regular Season
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Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
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Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
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Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
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Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
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Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
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Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

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Rejoins Timberwolves
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Moves to Brooklyn
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To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
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Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
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Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
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Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

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Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
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Chase Briscoe

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Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

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Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

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Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

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Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
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Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
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DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
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Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
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Kyle Busch

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Ross Chastain

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Josh Berry

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