MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/13/2025)

July 13, 2025

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/13/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Tyler Stephenson, Cal Raleigh, Paul Goldschmidt, and more!

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! It is my favorite time of the week when I get to recommend my favorite home run bets for you all! We don't have too many aces on the mound, so it makes it even more viable for us here on this slate! Hopefully, we'll secure some big wins on this slate and rake in some dough!

The weather appears to be going our way today, as the only game with a decent chance of rain is the Marlins-Orioles game. I won't be recommending anything from that game anyway so that we can avoid it altogether. There isn't any severe wind heading out towards the field, as we have a bunch of sub-10 mph gusts in all games at the moment. Many things can change, though, so keep an eye on the weather as Mother Nature is our worst enemy when it comes to these bets.

Below, you'll read about five of my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, July 13, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile. You can also combine these props with other picks into SGP or round robin plays that provide even more potential upside. I typically play a small unit size on home run props, but round robins and SGP create the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one player prop hits.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/13/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, July 13:

• Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
• Sal Frelick, Milwaukee Brewers
• Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
• Paul Goldschmidt, New York Yankees
• Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves

Tyler Stephenson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 DK)

I'm going to start in a spot that is likely to be popular on today's slate. Austin Gomber is on the mound for the Rockies, and he has the highest HR/9 on the slate at 1.85. He is going from one hitter's park to another in Cincinnati. Gomber is also sporting an absurd Z-Contact% of 93.2% and is getting hit hard in the zone with a 12.9% Barrel%, which is the second-highest on the slate.

I think the majority of people will go with the hot bat of Elly De La Cruz, but I'm going to be going with Tyler Stephenson, who has great metrics against lefties this season. He has a .488 SLG and a .220 ISO, along with a 53.2% HardHit% and an 11.7% Barrel%. He only has two home runs against LHP this season, but he also doesn't have a lot of at-bats against them this season.

Stephenson also already has a home run against Gomber; we are getting solid value on Stephenson here.

Sal Frelick OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DK)

Jake Irvin is likely the best option to take advantage of on this entire slate. He sports the second-highest HardHit% at 47.6, a slate leading 13% Barrel%, and the second-highest HR/9 at 1.78. He has given up 20 home runs on the season, with 13 of those being to left-handed hitters.

I highly recommend playing Christian Yelich in this matchup as well, but I like the odds a lot on Sal Frelick, who has all seven of his homers against RHP this season. He hits for more power off the righties with a .422 SLG and .337 wOBA. Frelick also has been on a bit of a hot streak with three home runs in his last two weeks.

Sal Frelick gives the Brewers some breathing room! pic.twitter.com/SbUltfkMxO

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 9, 2025

The safer play is someone like Yelich, but I like the longer shot in Frelick here.

Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 DK)

This Seattle offense has responded well after blowing the series finale in New York against the Yankees. They have scored 27 runs in the first two games of the series against Detroit. Cal Raleigh has been explosive as can be this season, and I told myself I was going to avoid betting him, but this is a good spot for him, and there is a lot on the line here.

Raleigh is one home run away from tying Barry Bonds' record for most home runs before the All-Star break. Jack Flaherty has been getting blown up this season. He has given up 17 home runs this season, and 10 of those have come from the left side of the plate. He has a 2.77 HR/9 against lefties at home.

Flaherty has a 44.6% HardHit% this season to go along with a 10.7% Barrel%. Cal Raleigh has a 49.2% HardHit% himself and just an absurd 20% Barrel%. Raleigh has 22 of his 38 home runs from the left side of the plate and already has two home runs in this series. This could be the one for history!

CAL RALEIGH
GRAND SLAM
HOMER NO. 38 pic.twitter.com/dlbEjAGU87

— MLB (@MLB) July 12, 2025

If you don't feel like betting the chalk, Jorge Polanco and Dominic Canzone make for great pivots who show plus stuff in this matchup as well.

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Paul Goldschmidt OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DK)

I was hesitant to pick this spot with Shota Imanaga having a lower 39.3% HardHit%, but after looking at Paul Goldschmidt and his success against LHP this season, I have to take a shot on him here. Imanaga does have a 10.3% Barrel% and a 1.80 HR/9 against RHH this season. Nine of his 10 home runs have been against RHH this season.

Goldschmidt has been on another level against the LHP this season. He is averaging .430, with a .744 SLG and a .314 ISO! He also has a 42.8% HardHit% and 8.4% Barrel%. Goldschmidt is in the best spot for a home run from the Yankees here. Imanaga has been solid against LHH, which likely would shut down quite a bit of this Yankees lineup.

Marcell Ozuna OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+ DK)

Marcell Ozuna has had Sonny Gray's number! He has three home runs against him for all of my BVP guys out there! Ozuna makes for a good matchup against him, too. Gray specifically gets hit harder by RHH this season with a 1.31 HR/9. His HardHit% and Barrel% are lower than some of his pitching counterparts on this slate.

Ozuna is sporting a 48.9% HardHit% and a 10.7 Barrel% this season. He is also miles better against RHP than he is against LHP, with 10 of his 12 home runs coming against RHP this season. Ozuna is in line for a big showing with a .393 SLG and .156 ISO, which has been declining since the beginning of the season. Ozuna is due for another home run, and who better than Gray to give that to him?

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