MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (10/1/2025)

October 1, 2025

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (10/1/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including .

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! What a thrilling first day of the MLB playoffs! We are officially into October Baseball, and it's time we continue with some more banger home run props! The Dodgers game was filled with homers, and I expect that to happen once again. Let's dive into another day of postseason ball!

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, October 1, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (10/1/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, October 1:

• Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
• Carlos Narvaez, Boston Red Sox
• Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers

Manny Machado OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+545 DraftKings)

They are getting some wicked winds in Cleveland this week, so I'll be skipping that game unless something changes I wouldn't expect to see too many runs with near 15 mph winds blowing in from center field. We are still getting some wind in Chicago this week, but it's much tamer, and we all know that the wind can change at any moment and could end up being in our favor at some point.

My first home run bet sits with Manny Machado, who has been elite against LHP this year. He has 12 home runs, which is more than double the number of home runs against lefties, more than anyone else on the roster. The next closest is Fernando Tatis Jr. with five.

Machado is also leading the team in all power categories against lefties this season, too. He has a .488 SLG, .241 ISO, 14.5% Barrel%, and a 51.1% HardHit%. Machado has also had two home runs in his last six games against LHP. He is getting a really good matchup against the lefty Shota Imanaga.

Imanaga has been hammered by RHP this season, giving up 27 of 31 home runs to RHB. September has been by far his worst month, too; he has given up 10 home runs and is giving up a wOBA of .380 to hitters. He has an HR/9 to RHB of 2.22, the highest on the slate.

The Padres only have a few righties likely in the lineup tomorrow; if there is anyone to bet on, it has to be Manny Machado. Imanaga has given up 20 home runs just off his four-seamer, which is coming with a SLG of .608 and an ISO of .381. Machado has done well against the four-seamer, too, with a SLG of .491 and ISO of .273.

Carlos Narvaez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+840 DraftKings)

Carlos Rodon is a tough pitcher to go against, but I love the odds we are getting on someone like Carlos Narvaez. I also want to note that Romy Gonzalez and Rob Refsnyder are also in good positions and have great splits against lefties this season.

I chose Narvaez, though, because of his history against Rodon. In his last six ABs against him, he has four Hard Hits with exit velocities of 98 mph or higher. Three of those Hard Hits resulted in hits, and one of them was a home run.

Rodon has given up 17 of his 22 home runs this season to RHB. They have primarily come off his four-seamer, which he has given up 12 of those home runs to. Narvaez has hit three of his four home runs against lefties off the four-seamer and has a SLG of .526 and .263 ISO. Rodon is throwing that pitch 45% of the time, and with how much success Narvaez has had against it, I wouldn't be surprised if we cash him at 8-1 odds here.

Teoscar Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+379 FanDuel)

This is likely going to be our best spot for home runs. The wind is blowing out to center field at around 8 mph at the start of the game. The Dodgers got off to a hot start, hitting five home runs in the first six innings, including two from Shohei Ohtani and two from Teoscar Hernandez.

From the looks of this one, we are getting Zack Littell to start the game. This is an interesting decision, and I think the Reds were really hoping they could win Game 1 to save Andrew Abbott for Game 3 if it was necessary. Zack Littell has been a guy we have been targeting all season long at RotoBaller for our home run articles. He has given up 36 home runs on the season and has truly been bad against both sides of the plate.

Teoscar Hernández's second career multi-homer #Postseason game 💪 pic.twitter.com/cB8Uv8XtYl

— MLB (@MLB) October 1, 2025

There have been rumours that Nick Lodolo may get some bulk innings in this game as well. If that is the case, then targeting an RHB is going to be critical here. Littell has given up 20 home runs to RHB, and Lodolo has given up 19.

Teoscar Hernandez is that guy right now, like I said. He is coming off a game where he just had two home runs, and now he is riding high. Littell has a decent pitch mix but has been hit hard off his four-seamer, sinker, and slider. Those three pitches happen to be Hernandez's best pitches as well. Littell has an SLG of .523, .427, and .551 on those three pitches.

Hernandez has been hitting the ball really well, as he has 10 hits in his last six games. Even if Lodolo is thrown into the mix, then I think Hernandez is the one who benefits the most from it, as Lodolo has been awful against RHB as well.

Max Muncy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+314 DraftKings)

Keeping it here with the Dodgers, as Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been great at limiting home runs, and makes for a tough read, and the Reds aren't particularly known for their home run hitting. Max Muncy has done extremely well against Zack Littell in his career; he has two home runs in five ABs, and he also has four hits of over 90 mph exit velocity. He is seeing the ball well against Littell. My only worry here is that the Reds do a rug pull on us.

If, for some reason, Littell is used as an opener and Lodolo is expected to handle the majority of the innings, it would hurt betting on Muncy in this spot. Muncy has been pretty bad against lefties, so his facing a righty is the whole point in betting on him here. Muncy has been elite against RHP with a .508 SLG, an ISO of .244, a Barrel% of 14.4% and a 50.3% HardHit%. I'm betting on Littell staying in for at least two ABs against Muncy and him getting it done there.

If you want a bit of a safer pick, I do like Andy Pages as well, and he has better splits against both sides of the plate compared to Muncy. But Muncy's experience against Littell is juicy, so that's where I'm going here.

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