RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! As we head into Week 15 of the NFL season, it is the most important part of the year, PLAYOFF TIME!
It's more critical than ever to make the right lineup decisions and start the right players to put out your optimal lineups, as managers need to get a head start towards achieving their goal of winning a fantasy championship.
Listed below will be some players who could be in for a disappointing performance relative to their overall expectations. No matter how bad of a matchup some of these players may have, fantasy managers likely aren't in a position to leave them on their bench. Having said that, there are a couple of guys who are by no means a must-start in Week 15.
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Who Should I Bench or Sit in Week 15?
QB - Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Wilson is in for a tough matchup on the road with the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The 33-year-old has picked up his game over the past three weeks, as he has thrown for six touchdowns and turned the ball over just one time. He seems to be finding his game after not throwing a touchdown in his first two games back from injury, but that could come to an end in Week 15 against their divisional rival.
The pass rush of the Rams and the poor offensive line play of the Seahawks aren't a good match, so Wilson will likely have little time to get the ball out of his hands. Teams have used the run game to combat the pass rush, but the Rams also have an elite run defense. We have seen the Seahawks want to establish the run, albeit with little to no effectiveness for much of the season, so Wilson’s passing volume could be limited early on in the game. The one thing that bodes well for Wilson is his potential to rack up some yardage in the second half as the Seahawks will likely be trailing, but that being said, he is an extremely risky start this week. With Jalen Ramsey returning, he will likely be seeing a lot of D.K. Metcalf, which will make it even more of a challenge to get the ball into his hands. Tyler Lockett has been playing extremely well as of late as he and Wilson have connected on numerous deep passes over the past few weeks, so now with him headed to the COVID-19 list, it may be hard to get anything going on offense. At best, Wilson is a low-end QB1 and is not a must-start in Week 15.
Should I Start Aaron Jones in Week 15?
Jones, who was able to rack up 65 yards and two touchdowns on just eight touches in Week 14, finds himself in a tough matchup against the solid run defense of the Baltimore Ravens. Jones is still dealing with the knee injury that caused him to miss a game, but he is still being limited in terms of his workload since his return. We have seen AJ Dillon out-touch him in back-to-back games, so there is cause for concern for the fantasy value of Jones. We could see Jones limited to around 10-12 touches once again, so fantasy managers shouldn't count on him finding the end zone on 25% of his opportunities as we saw last week.
There is the possibility we could see a game closer to his Week 12 performance against the Rams, where he carried the ball 10 times for just 23 yards. The Ravens are an excellent run defense, as they have given up the fewest rushing yards and third-fewest yards per carry. Considering how the backfield in Green Bay has shaped out over the past number of weeks, Jones should be relegated to an RB2 for fantasy managers in Week 15. It doesn't seem like he will be getting back the workhorse role that he has had in the past, so temper your expectations not only this week but for the rest of the season. As of now, it seems like Dillon may be the running back to want in the Green Bay backfield.
Aaron Jones hasn't had over 12 touches in a game since October.
— Chris M-Bite Size Fantasy Football Stats (@force_fantasy) December 16, 2021
Should I Start Chuba Hubbard in Week 15?
Hubbard found the end zone in Week 14, which salvaged a potentially disastrous performance as the rookie was able to carry the ball 10 times for just 33 yards and had no involvement in the passing game. In a matchup with the Buffalo Bills, Hubbard has a less-than-inspiring outlook in this one. Ameer Abdullah is the clear option out of the backfield in the passing game, so Hubbard has an extremely low floor in this one. The Bills' defensive numbers against the run have taken a hit over the past number of weeks, but they have still given up the 12th-fewest rushing yards and just 4.1 yards per carry.
With the potential for Cam Newton to be used at the goal line, it is hard to count on Hubbard finding the end zone in this game. Although he very well could find his way into scoring, he is still a very risky start as we head into the first week of the fantasy playoffs. The potential for a negative game script could lead to his snap count being extremely limited later in the game, so the former Oklahoma State product might make fantasy managers want to rip their hair out on Sunday. In PPR leagues, Hubbard is at best a low-end FLEX play but can get a slight bump in non-PPR and half-PPR formats.
Should I Start Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 15?
Pittman draws a tough matchup with J.C. Jackson and the stingy Patriots pass defense this Saturday. The Patriots have given up the second-fewest receptions and the third-fewest receiving yards this season, as they have shown on multiple occasions to phase the top target out of the opposing team’s game plan. We have seen Pittman command 18 targets in his past two games, but the sophomore is no stranger to seeing limited action because of the Colts' heavy reliance on the run game with the overall RB1 Jonathan Taylor.
There have been five different games where Pittman has seen five targets or less, so that could, unfortunately, be the reality he faces in Week 15 against one of the hottest defensive units in the league. We saw the Patriots hold the Titans to just 93 passing yards in Week 12, and they have completely shut down some stud pass-catchers this season, including Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, Kyle Pitts, D.J. Moore, and Mike Williams. Pittman can be valued as a low-end WR2 with limited upside in Week 15.
Should I Start DK Metcalf in Week 15?
Metcalf has caused his fantasy managers a lot of frustration since Wilson’s return to the lineup, and there is nothing to suggest that will change this week against the Rams. He hasn't found the end zone in five consecutive games and has been held under 50 receiving yards in four of those five games. He has seen a notable amount of targets with 36 over that span, but it has turned into extreme inefficiency as he and Wilson look to be on a different page since Week 10.
Metcalf got the best of Ramsey in their previous matchup this year after putting up 98 yards and two touchdowns, but it is hard to get excited about the third-year receiver this week based on what we have seen from the Seattle offense. There will be a lot more attention on Metcalf with Lockett out of the lineup, so Dee Eskridge and Gerald Everett could see some more looks on Sunday. Although a potential pass-heavy game script in the second half could help rack up some garbage time points for the Seattle receivers, it is hard to get excited about anyone in the Seattle offense this week. Still, with limited time to get the ball out, Wilson could rely a bit more on his big target this week as there likely won't be enough time to connect on deep passes with the speedy Eskridge, who could find himself in the Lockett role. All things considered, Metcalf is a WR2 in Week 15.
Should I Start Cole Kmet in Week 15?
Kmet has seen some solid usage over the past three games, as he has commanded 23 targets going back to the Turkey day showdown with the Detroit Lions. The sophomore hasn't found the end zone all season, as the Bears offense has struggled to put up points. The Vikings have given up the seventh-fewest points per game to tight ends, (9.95) so Kmet finds himself in a tough spot on Monday night.
The Bears could rely heavily on the run game in this one as the Vikings have struggled to defend it all season long. Darnell Mooney is the top target in the Chicago offense, and there is always the possibility that Allen Robinson II could have a breakout game with Justin Fields seemingly getting more comfortable in the offense. Kmet likely needs a touchdown in this one to have notable fantasy production, which may be hard to count on based on the pecking order in the Chicago offense. We could see a neutral game script in this one, so Kmet will likely come in at around 5-7 targets, which we have seen to be the usual for him this season. He is still well in the TE1 discussion, but the matchup is not very appealing from a fantasy perspective.
Wide receiver Jakeem Grant has more touchdowns this season for the Chicago Bears than Cole Kmet and Allen Robinson.
— Daniel Greenberg (@ChiSportUpdates) December 14, 2021
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