College Football Betting Picks for Week Ten (11/6/2021)

November 4, 2021

Our college football CFB betting picks for Week Ten. Every week, Nick recommends the best CFB bets and top CFB wagers for the college football betting slate.

As we enter Week Ten, the nation is now down to just six unbeaten teams, and the first College Football Playoff rankings have been released. The Georgia Bulldogs look currently unbeatable, and appear on a collision course with Alabama in the SEC championship game. Cincinnati, meanwhile is doing everything they can to earn respect, and will even be featured on ESPN's College GameDay this weekend.

In Week Nine, our over/under and moneyline underdog picks ended up with a 3-2 record with both underdogs cashing at +160 and +120. North Texas battled Rice in the in-state rivalry and eked out a win that narrowly fell short of the over. In Pittsburgh, the Miami Hurricanes might have saved coach Manny Diaz's job as the two offenses exploded, hitting the over in the third quarter. In Nashville, the Vanderbilt Commodores had their best offensive performance of the season at an inopportune time. And lastly, Virginia Tech walked into Georgia Tech and walked away with the victory as a 4-point underdog. The season-long record is now 18-15.

For Week Ten of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.

Southern California (USC) @ Arizona State (-8.5)

O/U: 59

After his dismissal earlier this year from the USC head coaching position, Clay Helton was in the news this week as he accepted the position at Georgia Southern, across the nation in Stateboro, Georgia, located just outside of Savannah, Georgia. Expectations were high with junior quarterback Kedon Slovis considered a Heisman contender, but now the Trojans sit at only 4-4, with interim coach Donte Williams just hoping to make it through the rest of the year unscathed. The Trojans suffered a big loss last week when star receiver Drake London was carted off the field, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the year. Luckily, the team does have quite a bit of depth as they'll be turning to a trio of underclassmen in Tahj Washington, Gary Bryant and Kyle Ford to make up for London's absence. The defense has been largely porous, surrendering 34 points last week to a rebuilding Arizona program, and looking out-of-whack throughout conference play. With star-studded talent and high recruits littering the depth chart, its bewildering that Helton failed to have more success in Los Angeles than he did.

Arizona State entered 2021 with high expectations, and for some time they were meeting those expectations with a 5-1 start. Over the last two weeks, however, they've been stunned by Utah and Washington State in a pair of double digit losses that have brought Herm Edwards' team back to earth. The Sun Devils' offense, led by junior dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels and fifth-year senior Rachaad White at running back, ranks 50th in scoring offense, but was a top-10 scoring offense for a small blip to start the year and has shown flashes and has a balanced attack. The defense started the year strong, but has given up over 30 points in back-to-back weeks against less-than-stellar offenses. With an NCAA investigation looming over the program, coach Edwards is far from guaranteed to make it through this year which has become a bit of a disappointment for what many expected to be a resurgent program in Tempe, Arizona.

The common thread over the last two losses for Arizona State has been allowing a consistent run game. Utah gashed the Sun Devils to the tune of 5.8 yards per carry, while Washington State earned 166 yards on the ground and two touchdowns, while forcing five turnovers. Arizona State's offense is bound to get their points, they're simply too talented not to, but their defense is not playing its best right now with back-to-back 400 yard performances for their opponents. On the other side, USC is playing like a team that's given up and chasing individual accolades. The Trojans love to throw the ball, and have a breakout player in Texas running back transfer Keaontay Ingram who has really started to get going in recent weeks and is a constant threat on screens and bubbles out of the backfield.

Pick: Over 59

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Tennessee at Kentucky (PK)

O/U: 57

The Tennessee Volunteers are one of the most difficult teams to figure out in college football. Coach Josh Heupel's team battled close with Alabama for three quarters and narrowly lost to Ole Miss, but also lost on its home turf to Pitt and got humiliated in Gainesville against Florida. Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker has revitalized the offense since taking over at quarterback from sleepy Joe Milton. Hooker is completing nearly 69% of his passes, while throwing for 17 touchdowns and only two picks. Hooker also offers some semblance of a running attack, where he has gained 416 yards in his eight games played. The Volunteers' defense has been susceptible to the passing game, and was run over in the last two games against Ole Miss and Alabama's running games. The defensive line features future NFL players like Tyler Baron and Matthew Butler, but had no solution for two of the SEC's better running attacks. If the Volunteers were unable to make the fixes in their bye week, it could be a very long day against a Kentucky running game that runs downhill and features one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Coach Mark Stoops has finally begun to get more national recognition this year, and for good reason. Stoops has the Wildcats at 6-2 thus far, and the team is fresh off of three consecutive bowl wins. The Wildcats will go as far as their running attack will take them, with the human bowling ball Chris Rodriguez Jr. leading the way. Rodriguez averages 6.0 yards per carry, and has scored eight touchdowns this year. He's complimented in the backfield by the quicker and smaller Kavosiey Smoke, and the quarterback, Penn State transfer Will Levis. Levis is a polarizing player who makes more mistakes than you'd like to see from your signal-caller, but he brings a gutsy leadership that was much-needed in Lexington. Levis has thrown 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and will be looking early and often for his top receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, a Nebraska transfer. Robinson has one of the highest usage rates in college football, having caught 58 passes this year, equivalent to 42.3% of all completed passes on the team.

Having to play this game in Lexington will make a big difference. Kentucky is 5-0 at home on the year, forcing all of their turnovers at home with none forced in their 1-2 road performance. Tennessee's offense looks sharp, but the defense has been susceptible to big plays since Kenny Pickett and the Pitt Panthers took over Knoxville on September 11. The Volunteers' defense allows nearly 70% of passes to be completed on the road (as opposed to 59% at home), and nearly 500 yards of offense per game on average.

Pick: Kentucky money line (-110)

Appalachian State at Arkansas State (-21)

O/U: 68.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers are off to a strong 6-2 start this year, with coach Shawn Clark in his second year in charge. Clark's background was as the offensive line coach, and his background is evident in the team's stout offensive line and run performance. The Mountaineers average nearly 200 yards per game on the ground as they like to churn out the clock in the second half of games after building up big first-half leads. The running attack spotlights two feature backs in Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples, with a stable of eager young backs awaiting their turn. Quarterback Chase Brice, with previous stops at Clemson and Duke, has helped the offense in a big way, tossing 14 touchdowns against only five picks. Brice has a triumvirate of targets to rely on, with seniors Malik Williams, Corey Sutton and Thomas Hennigan all catching at least 30 passes (and being the only players on the team with double digit receptions).

Butch Jones is in year one of the rebuild in Jonesboro, Arkansas, and he seemingly has some of the pieces already in place. The defense is bad, allowing 42.4 points per game, but they seem to have turned a corner in recent weeks giving up only 28 and 31 points to Louisiana and South Alabama, respectively. The Red Wolves expected more from their offense, especially the two-quarterback system of James Blackman and Layne Hatcher, who have combined for 20 touchdown passes but also 10 interceptions. The team has no semblance of a running game, but does have some big receivers such as Dahu Green that can keep them in games. One bright spot on the defense has been Kivon Bennett, who started the season slowly only to emerge and rack up 12 tackles for loss and five sacks.

Appalachian State is in complete control of their destiny after taking down fellow Sun Belt East division-mate Coastal Carolina earlier this year. Coach Clark will not want to make too many risky decisions in a road game against an improving young team that is well-coached. Don't let the three-touchdown favorite fool you, they should be in control of this game early and coast their way to a win in unimpressive fashion with plenty of runs.

Pick: Under 68.5

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