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Who to draft? Mike Riggall compares ADP of wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins to determine which player is a better draft value at WR for 2021
Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins are both second-year wide receivers who are coming off solid rookie campaigns. While both of these guys are ascending players, should you draft them this season at their current average draft position (ADP)? If so, which player has the better outlook?
Per NFFC data pulled from 12-team leagues, Higgins currently has an ADP of 52 while Aiyuk has an ADP of 54. This means you are likely targeting Higgins or Aiyuk towards the back-end of the fourth round or top of the fifth as your WR2 or WR3. At this stage of the draft, the first thing you need to ask yourself is whether either of these receivers is worth their draft capital at their ADP. If the answer is yes, which one?
Now let's dive in a little and take a look at the respective situations for Aiyuk and Higgins, figure out if it makes sense to draft these guys and which receiver makes sense for you based on how you like to build your team.
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Should You Draft Aiyuk or Higgins at Their ADP?
First, let's take a look at which players have a similar ADP to both Aiyuk and Higgins. Javonte Williams, Kyle Pitts, Lamar Jackson, Mike Davis and Kareem Hunt all have ADPs between 51 and 58. At this point in the draft, while drafting Lamar Jackson might be tempting, it's probably a better idea to hold off and draft another quarterback like Dak Prescott or Aaron Rodgers a round or two later, because you can get a quality quarterback later in the draft much easier than you can get another quality wide receiver. If you pass on Aiyuk and Higgins at their ADP for a quarterback like Jackson, some of the next receivers off the board are Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay and Odell Beckham Jr., all of which have question marks surrounding them heading into the season.
In the fifth round of the draft, all of the established high-end running backs will certainly be gone, but Javonte Williams and Kareem Hunt will likely still be on the board. When evaluating whether to draft Williams, Hunt, Aiyuk or Higgins, I think the decision needs to come down to what you did with the previous rounds of your draft. If you came out of the first few rounds with Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins, then you can take Higgins or Aiyuk as a nice WR2 or WR3. However, if you went wide receiver or tight end early in your draft and only have one running back on your roster, then you may need to forego drafting another wide receiver and take Williams or Hunt before running back depth completely dries up. After Hunt and Williams, guys like Miles Gaskin, Mike Davis and James Robinson are going off the board, all of which are guys that seemingly came out of nowhere in 2020 and have uncertain long-term futures. If faced with this decision, it may make sense to draft a running back instead of Aiyuk or Higgins to solidify your roster with a solid RB2.
Kyle Pitts is also an intriguing option around this ADP, but if you pass on him, T.J. Hockenson can be drafted a round later. Rookie tight ends don't have the best track record of success, so it may make sense to pass on Pitts for Aiyuk or Higgins at the ADP and lock up a tight end later. If you take Aiyuk in the fifth, then you could pair him with a tight end like Mark Andrews in the sixth. However, if you pass on Aiyuk for Pitts, then you may roll with Kenny Golladay or Odell Beckham Jr. as your WR3 which is a little concerning given their recent injury history.
Can Brandon Aiyuk Produce at a High Level?
In 2020, Brandon Aiyuk missed a few games while on the COVID-19 List but when he did play, he had some monster games. Aiyuk had at least nine targets in five of the last six games he played in 2020 and scored in four of them. Aiyuk also played on at least 80% of the 49ers offensive snaps in nine of the 12 games he was active.
While Aiyuk was heavily targeted down the stretch last year, it's worth noting that George Kittle and Deebo Samuel weren't healthy and missed significant time in 2020. While it's concerning that we haven't really seen many games with Aiyuk, Kittle and Samuel all on the field, and healthy, together, the 49ers don't really have any decent passing options on the roster outside of these three guys which means all three should see decent volume.
Sometimes when you're evaluating two players, it's a good idea to look ahead at the schedule to see if a certain player has a tough road. While strength of schedule isn't necessarily a tool you want to use as your primary vehicle to make a decision, it may serve as a tie-breaker when faced with a tough call. In Aiyuk's case, the 49ers don't have a brutal schedule against lockdown pass defenses, but Aiyuk will likely see Jalen Ramsey in coverage when the 49ers play the Rams in Week 10 and Week 18. Simply put, the cornerbacks Aiyuk will see in 2021 shouldn't steer you away from him, especially since fantasy seasons will likely be wrapped up by the time his second matchup against Ramsey come around in Week 18.
Will the Addition of Ja'Marr Chase Hurt Tee Higgins?
Down the stretch in 2020, Higgins did not have decent quarterback play which hurt his production late in the year. Prior to Burrow going down, Higgins did put up a few monster-games, going for 125 yards against the Colts, 71 yards and a score against the Browns and 115 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers. While Higgins is likely to ascend in 2021, the addition of Ja'Marr Chase this year has people in the fantasy football community wondering whether Higgins will live up to fantasy football expectations.
To address this, let's evaluate the roles that the Bengals wide receivers will play in 2021. Tyler Boyd is clearly the slot receiver in Cincinnati, so his role is defined and will not change from the past. Higgins had 108 targets as a rookie, seeing nine-or-more targets in five games. A.J. Green struggled in 2020 but he still saw 104 targets. In 2020, Higgins and Green mainly played on the outside while Boyd remained in the slot. In 2021, Chase and Higgins will be the outside receivers with Chase likely being the primary X and Higgins the Z. With Boyd, Green and Higgins all receiving more than 100 targets in 2020, there's no reason to think that the current trio of Bengals receivers won't each receive 100-plus targets themselves.
The Bengals offense wasn't very efficient last year even when Burrow played, mainly due to poor offensive line play. Burrow threw for just 6.7 yards-per-attempt, while Brandon Allen threw for a mere 6.5 yards-per-attempt. Before Allen started playing, Ryan Finley was even worse. Heading into 2021 the Bengals have revamped their offensive line which means Burrow will have more time to throw and the receivers should be able to get deeper down the field into their routes.
While the Bengals defense added some quality free agents and got DJ Reader back from injury, the unit is not great, which means teams will likely put up points on them. This will result in Burrow putting the ball in the air at a high rate, leading to more targets for Higgins and all the receivers. Similar to Aiyuk, the Bengals don't really have any matchups against teams with lockdown corners, which is a positive for Higgins. Denzel Ward may be the best cornerback that Higgins sees all year, but he's not exactly Jalen Ramsey.
Conclusion
So who should we take, Aiyuk or Higgins?
Based on what was discussed above, you can't really go wrong drafting either player. When it comes down to it, you need to ask yourself what you want. The Bengals are going to throw the ball a lot in 2021 and Higgins will see heavy targets, but his usage may be week-to-week based on how teams line up against him, Chase and Boyd. The 49ers want to run the ball first and foremost, but their passing offense is designed to get the ball to receivers in space and let them run after the catch, which plays well into Aiyuk's abilities.
When it comes down to it, I am going to draft Brandon Aiyuk over Tee Higgins at their current ADP for a few reasons. First, there are fewer mouths to feed in San Francisco, meaning it's more likely that Aiyuk sees a higher number of targets on a week-to-week basis. Second, Aiyuk had some monster-games in 2020 with terrible quarterback play for much of the year. Now that the 49ers have Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance on the roster, Aiyuk's ceiling could be through the roof with competent quarterback play. I understand that Higgins had bad quarterback play down the stretch as well, but as I said, there's a lot of mouths to feed in Cincinnati. At the end of the day you can't really go wrong drafting either one of these guys. Between the two, Higgins may be the safer, more conservative pick while Aiyuk could be a homerun. I would personally go for the homerun and select Aiyuk, but you need to decide how you want to build your roster.
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