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Nick Federline's college basketball betting picks for the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
After a whirlwind first weekend in Indianapolis, the Sweet 16 is now upon us. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament coverage and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and betting picks.
The first round The First Round of the tournament presented some betting incredible matchups and a 3-1 record in our betting picks. The one loser was at the hands of diminutive combo guard Max Abmas and Oral Roberts, who stunned both Ohio State and Florida on their way to the Sweet 16 - the second such feat of a #15 seed in history. Luckily, the winners were more prevalent in the opening weekend as the under in the LSU-Saint Bonaventure game cashed easily, along with Ohio upsetting Virginia as 8-point underdogs, and Texas Tech putting the game in cruise control with a strong second half against Utah State.
Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks for the Sweet 16 (Saturday and Sunday, March 27 and 28, 2021). Let me know your thoughts, and follow along with the action on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time. Season record to date: 32-23.
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#12 Oregon State vs. #8 Loyola-Chicago - 2:40 PM, Saturday
Sister Jean and the Battlin' Ramblers are back and fresh off of an upset of Illinois, who entered the tournament as a #1 seed and a popular champion pick. Senior center Cameron Krutwig, a third-team All-American, led Coach Porter Moser's team to a dominant performance where they led the Fighting Illini from start-to-finish and thoroughly outplayed one of the best teams in the nation. The Ramblers have only lost twice since the calendar flipped to 2021, and have covered in five straight games. The last time that an opposing team scored more than 65 points on Coach Moser's team was a January 10 loss to Indiana State. Senior guard Lucas Williamson and Krutwig were both freshmen during the last Loyola Final Four run in 2018, but are the team leaders now. Krutwig has built an incredibly impressive resume and currently stands as one of only four players in Missouri Valley history to record 1,500 points, 800 rebounds, and 300 assists (the other 3 are Hall of Famers Oscar Robertson, Larry Bird, & Hersey Hawkins). With a wide-open path in the Midwest Region, Loyola would be wise to not look ahead and take care of business in the methodical workman-like fashion that they've done so far in dispatching two major conference tournament champions in Georgia Tech (ACC) and Illinois (Big Ten).
On the morning of March 13, Oregon State would have been lucky to be on the back-end of the NIT bubble. However, Coach Wayne Tinkle's team upset their in-state rival Oregon Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship to earn the automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. Despite shooting only 28.6% from 3-point range as a team on the year, the Beavers have been red-hot during the Tournament to the tune of 39%. Senior guard Ethan Thompson rarely leaves the floor and, as a fourth-year starter, will find his name among many of the career statistical leaders in Oregon State history alongside the likes of Tres Tinkle and Gary Payton. Thompson is not an efficient scorer - shooting only 40.6% from the field - but he is a dynamic creator who thrives and can make plays with the ball in his hands. With double-digit upset wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma State in their pocket, anyone would be remiss to count out the Beavers. Expect Loyola to do everything they can to keep the ball out of Thompson's hands in the hopes that the role players can't keep up their recent hot streak.
Pick: Under 126.5
#11 Syracuse vs. #2 Houston - 9:55 PM, Saturday
When the month of March rolls around, you'd be hard-pressed to find a coach better prepared than Syracuse's Jim Boeheim. Coach Boeheim's son Buddy is the Orange's leading scorer at 18.0 points per game (ppg). Buddy Boeheim is connecting at a 59.4% field goal percentage in the tournament, with 13 of his 19 field goals coming from beyond the arc. If the Orange do have a weakness, however, it comes on the boards. 6-foot-10 Slovakian center Marek Dolezaj is not a bruiser at only 201 pounds. The leading rebounder, Quincy Guerrier, is a 6-foot-7 Canadian ball-of-energy struggled with fouls throughout much of the ACC season - including a 7 game stretch that saw Guerrier sit on the pine for large stretches and incur at least 4 fouls in each game. The wins in the tournament over San Diego State and West Virginia have been impressive and largely due to the fact that the Orange shooters are converting, while their signature 2-3 zone defense has stymied opponents enough. Against Houston, they will face their toughest foe yet.
With #1 Illinois, #3 West Virginia, #4 Oklahoma State, #5 Tennessee, and #6 San Diego State all bounced from the field, the Houston Cougars are the current favorite out of the Midwest Region. With a gaudy 26-3 record, Coach Kelvin Sampson should feel good about his team's prospects. The toughest team that the Cougars faced all year was an early season win over Texas Tech. A comeback win over Rutgers in the Round of 32 showed the grit and tenacity of this Houston team which has won nine straight games. Quentin Grimes, who started his career at Kansas, is the leading scorer at over 18 ppg. Houston has only allowed two opponents all season to convert at least 10 three-pointers. It was no coincidence that those marked two of the Cougars' three losses. The key for the Orange will be to pile on the perimeter shooting, while the Cougars will do everything they can to break up the rhythm.
Pick: Syracuse +6.5
#5 Creighton vs. #1 Gonzaga - 2:10 PM, Sunday
The Creighton Bluejays are somewhat lucky to still be standing in the program's first-ever Sweet 16 appearance. Coach Greg McDermott's team got bailed out in a 1-point win over #12-seeded USCB when 57% free-throw shooter Christian Bishop converted the two winning free throws. Their second round foe, Ohio, decided to stake their fate on chucking as many quick 3-point shots as they could to the tune of a poor 21% conversion. Having faced two double-digit seeds, they have had the easiest path on paper to the Sweet 16. Point guard Marcus Zegarowski is an elite talent that scores 15.7 ppg, while dishing out nearly 5 assists per game as well. The Blue Jays are not very deep and primarily will run with the starting 5 of Zegarowski Mitch Ballock, Denzel Mahoney, Damien Jefferson and Christian Bishop, who have accounted for nearly 96% of the team's scoring in the tournament. Against a deep Zags team, these 5 will need to play their collective finest basketball if there is any hope of a 13.5-point underdog upset.
Coach Mark Few's team has done little to give bettors any cause for concern. In the Second Round, Oklahoma's Austin Reeves had a career game, the Sooners shot 50% from the floor - and the Bulldogs still covered the spread in an easy 87-71 victory. Similar to Creighton, Gonzaga has cut down the bench size and will operate largely with a contingency of six key players. Gonzaga's offensive juggernaut has scored below 80 points in only 3 of their 28 wins, and only one game has been decided by less than 10 points. The collective "weak spot" for Gonzaga is possibly its rebounding when forward Corey Kispert slides down to the power forward position. This matchup favors Gonzaga, as Creighton is also an average rebounding team, and frankly the Oklahoma Sooners probably posed a bigger matchup problem.
Pick: Gonzaga -13.5
#11 UCLA vs. #2 Alabama - 7:15 PM, Sunday
The UCLA Bruins find themselves in their first Sweet 16 since former coach Steve Alford's 2017 squad, which featured five future NBA draft picks including Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball. Wins over Michigan State, BYU and Abilene Christian is not exactly a murderer's row, but presented three separate unique teams with different styles that Coach Mick Cronin's squad vanquished. The Bruins have relied heavily on their starting 5 for scoring, led by former Kentucky guard Johnny Juzang and forward Jaime Jaquez. All five starters (Tyger Campbell, Juzang, Jules Bernard, Jaquez and Cody Riley) average double figure scoring, and all but Riley are perimeter threats. UCLA is a strong free throw shooting team and three-point shooting team who will be trying to create perimeter opportunities for Juzang and Jaquez, while keeping their big man Riley out of foul trouble.
Alabama is on an 8-game winning streak and hitting the right notes and the right time. Coach Nate Oats' team rebounds well, with their 40.5 rebounds per game ranking 15th in the NCAA. The Crimson Tide are also very deep and can go ten players deep at times as they wear down their opponents. Alabama hasn't been a national power in basketball since the early 1990s, outside of a 2004 Elite 8 run. Senior forward Herb Jones was honored as the SEC Player of the Year, and he contributes across-the-board in many ways that don't show up in the box score. Villanova transfer guard Jahvon Quinerly is shooting a sizzling 44.6% from beyond the arc, and is a human cannonball waiting to be sprung at any point in time. Fellow guards John Petty and Jaden Shackleford make the backcourt from Tuscaloosa one of the deepest remaining in the field.
Pick: Over 145
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
