RADIO
I'll get to the Divisional Round GPP DFS stacks if I can get myself up. Because I took an absolute beating this weekend. The bulk of my lineups were very strong. But the last minute GTD of Cole Beasley started made my John Brown selections worthless as did Ronald Jones II. And I didn't even like them that much, but I never expected the Steelers to post negative four points!
In addition to taking a beating, I'm getting old and becoming my father. Yup, I'm just like those Progressive commercials. Well, not exactly. I don't tell the waiter my name or care if someone has blue hair. But have you seen the one where Dr. Rick makes the guy get up and sit down in a chair without groaning when he does so? Let's just say that one hit a little close to home. I know I'm also getting crankier as I get older. I've been around for a while, and I don't think I ever will see an uglier 4-TD 500+ passing yard game than the one Roethlisberger had this weekend. His piece de resistance included 4 INTs and might be the quintessential "good fantasy game, bad actual game" ever thrown.
I promise you that none of the players below will have a game like that. And that brings us to this week's slate of games. I expect the Chiefs to be the most heavily owned stack this week, so we will exclude them from our GPP stack consideration set. Josh Allen is coming off another 300+ yard performance and Stefon Diggs just had his eleventh game of 90 or more receiving yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo lost Zack Moss and with the Ravens allowing the ninth-most receptions this year, I think Buffalo will attack through the air, making the Bills a very popular stack as well. So who does that leave us with? I wanted to give you a stack for each day. Here are my GPP DFS stacks for this week.
Say "Yes" to "N.O" Stack
New Orleans Saints
I said last week that I am convinced that this will be Drew Brees's last playoff run. And I think it will be a good one. And that hasn't changed. Of course, the match-up doesn't hurt. In two games vs. Bucs this season, Brees threw six touchdown passes with zero interceptions. It also doesn't hurt that the Saints have one the highest implied totals this week. The Saints are the home favorite with an over/under that opened at 52 and continues to rise.
But back to the match-up. Since Week 8, opposing quarterbacks scored 4.3 fantasy points above their average when facing the Buccaneers. Furthermore, they exceeded their average in seven of those nine games. Yes, we haven't seen the Drew Brees 7-TD game this year. His best was a 25 point fantasy day, but he's also brought a decent floor. He had 18 or more points in nine of 13 games.
I don't care how old Brees is. He sure seems to have put his punctured lung and 11 broken ribs behind him. Brees is averaging 18.08 fantasy points since he returned in Week 15. And it's not like the Bucs have the stoutest secondary in the league. Tampa Bay allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to QBs this year.
That might explain why Brees seems to love playing Tampa Bay. He posted 23.68 points against them back in Week 9. And that was in Tampa. Can you imagine what he might do to the Bucs in the cushy confines of the Superdome where we know Brees always seems to play better? Coming off a solid 265 passing yards and two TDs against the Bears, Brees should have an absolute field day on his home turf on Sunday.
The obvious pairing with Brees is the suddenly attractive option of Michael Thomas. With the Saints in control most of the game, Thomas was only lightly used. He still managed to see seven targets and caught five of those for 73 yards and.....(trumpets blare) a touchdown! Drew Brees doesn't sling it deep as much as he used to, but some of that has been the absence of Thomas this year. And it looks like he's back:
MICHAEL THOMAS DEEP CATCH ALERT ? pic.twitter.com/7q9sEubU56
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 10, 2021
I expect Thomas to be shadowed by cornerback Carlton Davis, who looked sharp to start the year. In his first eight games, he allowed just 26-of-51 passing for 271 yards. Yet over his last seven games, Davis has been burned for 37-of-52 for 604 yards. That's bad.
The other option I like to complete the stack is Deonte Harris. Harris was used on special teams and therefore only saw a 29% snap share. However, given his performance last week, I would expect that number to double this weekend. Harris was a YAC monster this past weekend as 59 of his 83 yards came after the catch. There are lots of questions about Tampa’s secondary as they just allowed 306 yards to Heinicke.
The other beauty of stacking the Saints is that we can run-back with a whole bunch of attractive options in the Tampa Bay offense. But I think the most interesting might be Antonio Brown. Brown really hasn't done much this season. Through 14 weeks, Brown and Michael Thomas had combined for zero touchdowns. He hadn't even sniffed the vicinity of a hundred-yard game. However, have you seen what Brown has accomplished in the last four weeks? He has had at least double-digit fantasy points each of the last four weeks. He has scored a TD each of those weeks, including two scores in a bonanza of DFS points he had the last week of the regular season. The cheapest of Tampa Bay's top three WRs, he makes for a strong fourth piece to add to this GPP trifecta.
The "Circle The Wagons?" Stack
Baltimore Ravens
Perhaps Baltimore is the obvious stack and Buffalo is less so. But Buffalo right now is favored to win, perhaps causing Baltimore to be lower owned.
And any Baltimore stack obviously starts with Lamar Jackson. There has been a lot of debate this year about Jackson and his follow-up to his MVP season. This season was not quite as sparkling, but both Jackson and the Ravens have been playing much better of late. Since he returned from the Covid-19 list in week 13, Jackson has had at least 22 DKFPs or more each week. We know Jackson can run the ball. He certainly juked and jived against Tennessee to the tune of 136 yards and a touchdown. But he was also coming off a string of three strong passing weeks, where he threw eight TDs in three weeks.
Plan on seeing Lamar using both his legs and arm against Buffalo. They are around NFL average in adjusted pass defense. They are also 25th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to quarterbacks. Given that Lamar is averaging 10.9 carries per game, I think we see continued succes. Furthermore, Buffalo has only held half a dozen quarterbacks below 20 points this season. That motley crew is the Bizzaro Pro-Bowl roster of Drew Lock, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold (twice), and Cam Newton (twice). Seven quarterbacks reached at least 25 fantasy points against the Bills this season. As you start to look at the numbers, the evidence piles up very quickly that Lamar has the potential to break the slate.
Speaking of slate breakers, in a cash game, you start Travis Kelce. It's that simple. But a GPP is always a different beast, which means we need to consider Mark Andrews. Andrews has seen at least five targets in each of the last nine games. Andrews' biggest game of the year was back in week 1, but the upside has been there all year. Plus, it is one of the better match-ups this week.
Buffalo gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs this year. Seven tight ends finished with top-12 numbers against the Bills, including five who posted 17.8 or greater PPR points. When factoring in their competition, tight ends averaged 2.5 more PPR points per game against Buffalo versus their other games. Buffalo was actually the fifth-best schedule-adjusted matchup for the tight end position. Kelce will be hard to pass up, but if you are playing Lamar, I'd stack him with Andrews.
I suspect many stacking the Ravens will go with Marquis Brown. I'm going to pivot away from Brown, however, and go with JK Dobbins. Typically, there is a negative correlation between RBs and QBs. Even RBs who often catch passes like Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara have negative correlations (around .3, give or take .05) with their stud QBs. Jackson and Dobbins have a small but positive however correlation (.11). And even where I am not stacking the Ravens I will often have shares of Dobbins.
Like Jackson, Dobbins missed week 12. Since he returned, however, Dobbins has had double-digit PPR fantasy points every week, including a 31-point outburst the last week of the season. The last time Dobbins failed to score a TD was week 10. With Buffalo having allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs this year, Dobbins rounds out this stack very nicely.
For those wanting a runback and have the salary to do so, should Stefon Diggs be healthy, he's the obvious choice. He was the third overall WR in fantasy this year and his 1531 receiving yards were the most in the league this season. Finally, for those who like to drive down the narrative street, rumor has it that momma Diggs reached out to the Ravens and told them to draft her son. They didn't. I don't think Diggs is going to need extra motivation as I am sure if he's healthy, he will do just fine.
And hopefully, we all will with these GPP Divisional Round stacks!
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