Week 10 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Salvon Ahmed, Michael Pittman, Deshaun Watson and more.

Week 10 was fairly low scoring and it seemed like we saw a lot of touchdowns scored by low-end guys such as Willie Snead, DaeSean Hamilton, Cameron Brate and Rex Burkhead. Tom Brady led the week at quarterback while Kyler Murray and Josh Allen rounded out the top-three. Tight end was extremely rough this week with only eight guys reaching 10-or-more points. Mark Andrews led the way, Jordan Reed remained healthy and finished inside the top-five and T.J. Hockenson failed to take advantage of a great matchup, registering just 3.3 points.

The top-three wide receivers in Week 10, Cole Beasley, DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs, all played in the same game which was a 62-point shootout. Other than that, the top-ten consisted of Marquez Valdes-Stantling, Diontae Johnson, Marvin Jones, Willie Snead, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tee Higgins and Keelan Cole. While Johnson, Smith-Schuster and Higgins were likely in your lineups, there's a good chance the other guys were either on your bench or your waiver wire which is frustrating.

Alvin Kamara carried the ball eight times for just 15 yards but he got it done with 83 yards receiving and he scored three times to finish as the No. 1 running back on the week. Josh Jacobs touched the ball 25 times on his way to an RB-2 finish and Nyheim Hines was the hot-hand for the Colts, finishing as RB-3. D'Andre Swift drew his first career start exceeding 25 points as RB-4 and Ronald Jones busted out a 98-yard run propelling him to RB-5 on the week. Now that Week 10 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

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Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

Week 10 Stats: 20-of-30 passing, 163 yards, 1 TD, 8 carries, 36 yards

The weather in Cleveland was absolutely dreadful on Sunday and the game was actually delayed due to lightning in the area. When the game finally started, the field was already slick, the wind was an issue, and as a result both the Browns and Texans passing games suffered. Deshaun Watson had a great matchup in Week 10 and due to circumstances which were outside his control, he did not come through.

Bottom Line: Despite Watson's poor performance, he still finished as QB-14 on the week, so you could have done worse. Watson could have a tough time against the Patriots in Week 11 but he has a great matchup against the Lions in Week 12.

Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills

Week 10 Stats: 13 targets, 11 catches, 109 yards, 1 TD

All of the Bills wide receivers came through for fantasy football purposes in Week 10. Cole Beasley happened to be the guy with a high-volume day in a shoot out against the Cardinals.

Bottom Line: Cole Beasley has decent games from time to time and he seems to do best when he goes against zone defenses or the Bills get into shoot outs. In this instance, the Bills were in a shoot out and Beasley drew a soft matchup from Byron Murphy. If John Brown misses time, Beasley and Gabriel Davis will see an uptick in volume.

Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins

Week 10 Stats: 21 carries, 85 yards, 1 TD, 1 target, 1 catch, 5 yards

The Dolphins blocked a punt on the Chargers first drive of the game and were left with a short field. Who was called on to punch it in from the one? Not Jordan Howard, but rather Salvon Ahmed, the rookie running back out of Washington, got the call. Jordan Howard was a healthy-scratch for the game and the recently acquired DeAndre Washington carried the ball just twice.

Bottom Line: Miles Gaskin was placed on injured reserve two weeks ago which means he needs to miss a minimum of one more game. Salvon Ahmed is likely to be the guy for one more week and possibly longer depending on Gaskin's status. The Dolphins released Jordan Howard on Monday which increases Ahmed's chances to stick around and stay relevant.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

Week 10 Stats: 8 targets, 7 catches, 101 yards, 1 carry, 21 yards

Michael Pittman was one of the best wide receiver prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft and he finally came through in Week 10. Earlier in the season Pittman was slowed by injury and poor quarterback play from Philip Rivers. Finally, in Week 10, the Colts faced off against a Titans Defense that lacks any serious pass rush which means Rivers was able to get the ball to Pittman. In addition to his catching ability, Pittman showed that he's dangerous with the ball in his hands after the catch.

Bottom Line: Michael Pittman has arrived and the Colts passing game now goes through him but you still need to evaluate whether to start Pittman on a week-to-week basis. The Colts still want to run the ball first and foremost which means Pittman may be a little matchup-dependent until he establishes himself a little bit more.

Josh Reynolds, L.A. Rams

Week 10 Stats: 10 targets, 8 catches, 94 yards

Through the first ten weeks of the season Josh Reynolds has played 71% of the Rams offensive snaps. In Week 10, Reynolds played 81% of the Rams offensive snaps. Similar to Gabriel Davis in Week 9, Reynolds drew a soft matchup in a Seahawks secondary which gives up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and he took advantage of it, finishing as WR-17 on the week.

Bottom Line: Going back to Week 7, Reynolds has at least eight targets in each game he's played. Reynolds has asserted himself in the Rams passing game as of late and if Cooper Kupp continues to struggle with his wrist injury, Reynolds should be viable, especially in the short-term.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

Week 10 Stats: 4 targets, 1 catch, 21 yards

A.J. Brown was an absolute dud in Week 10 as the Titans offense struggled to throw the ball against the Colts secondary which is a very tough unit. Brown's day would have been much better had he not dropped a pass which likely would have gone for a 72-yard touchdown.

Bottom Line: A.J. Brown is a stud, but he excels against man-to-man coverage. The Colts primarily play zone and Brown dropped the deep-shot that would have put him over the top. Brown will be fine moving forward.

Devontae Booker, Las Vegas Raiders

Week 10 Stats: 16 carries, 81 yards, 2 TD, 1 target, 1 catch, 2 yards

The Raiders were dedicated to the running game in Week 10, rushing the ball a total of 41 times while passing it just 25 times. Josh Jacobs had a great game finishing as RB-2 on the week while Booker also cracked the top-10.

Bottom Line: If you have Josh Jacobs on your roster and you don't have Devontae Booker to go with him, you need to take care of that immediately. Booker is still available in 97% of Yahoo leagues.

Richard Rodgers, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 10 Stats: 5 targets, 4 catches, 60 yards

In Week 10, Dallas Goedert played 62 snaps. Goedert missed some time in the first quarter while he was being evaluated for a concussion and in his absence, Richard Rodgers was able to do some damage.

Bottom Line: Rodgers only played 21 snaps in Week 10, many of which came while Goedert was being evaluated by the Eagles medical staff. Rodgers will only be relevant if Goedert misses time so he should stay on your waiver wire unless you're desperate.

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