Stop That Hype Train! Ke’Shawn Vaughn

Phil Clark explains why Tampa Bay Bucs rookie running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn is an overhyped sleeper and potential draft bust for 2020 based on ADP.

The process of forming an opinion about a particular player can be built through watching video, and diving into data that helps determine each performer’s strengths and weaknesses. It also involves researching the dynamics of each player’s environment, including how they are likely to be deployed by their offensive decision-makers, and the blend of talent that surrounds them.

Enthusiasm can grow for various players, and can even escalate to an excessive level. This can result in an eagerness from many fantasy GMS to seize these performers during their drafts. Unfortunately, some players that reside among the most popular targets will not always deliver the results that had been envisioned. Some of these performers have been over-hyped during most of the offseason, while others have been promoted excessively in recent weeks.

The team at RotoBaller is providing a collection of articles that place the spotlight on these overhyped players. This supplies fantasy GMs with the analysis that fully examines every aspect of their situation, and is designed to temper unbridled enthusiasm for players that are currently being overrated. This article will examine rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn, whose pathway to a sizable workload has contained more obstacles than had been expected.

Overcoming Challenges At The Collegiate Level

Vaughn accumulated 3,296 rushing yards, 3,944 total yards, and 33 touchdowns during his four collegiate seasons. That included his 2,232 total yards during two years at Illinois. He led the Illini in multiple categories during his first season (157 attempts/723 rushing yards/6 touchdowns). But his usage and output declined in 2016 as the team transitioned to a new coaching staff, and Vaughn ultimately transferred to Vanderbilt.

KeShawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt. Remember the name ? pic.twitter.com/bHMnrJLjVD

— NCAAF 365 (@NCAAF_365) July 21, 2019

Vaughn was entrusted with 355 attempts during his two seasons with the Commodores while rushing for 2,272 yards and 21 touchdowns. His touchdown total placed him third all-time among Vanderbilt's backs, while he also became the third rusher in school history to exceed 1,000 yards in multiple seasons.

He delivered the most productive season of his collegiate career in 2018 while leading the Commodores in attempts (157), rushing yards (1,244), and rushing touchdowns (12). His 7.9 yards per attempt average also placed him sixth overall among all backs. But that average dropped to 5.2 per attempt last season, as Vaughn labored within a talent deficient unit. This included the offensive line, as the Commodores ranked a dismal 128th out of 130 FBS teams by PFF while finishing dead last in run-blocking.

A Pathway To Touches In Tampa

When Tampa Bay selected Vaughn with the 76th overall pack of last April’s NFL draft, there was a legitimate rationale for believing that he was entering one of the most favorable environments among running backs in this year’s rookie class. He was joining a backfield that did not contain an unquestioned RB1, as polarizing incumbent Ronald Jones would provide Vaughn’s primary competition for touches. Pass-catching specialist Dare Ogunbowale was a prospective candidate for targets while Peyton Barber was no longer a factor after migrating northward to Washington.

Tampa Bay’s rushing attack appeared to be in need of a talent infusion, after ranking just 26^th in Football Outsiders’ Offensive Efficiency Ratings. Jones finished 35^th in point per game scoring last season (PPR), although that was still the highest placement by a Buccaneer back since 2016. Jones also led the backfield in receiving yards (309), while Ogunbowale paced the team's running backs in targets (46) and receptions (35).

Jones' production improved following a dreadful rookie season in 2018 (23 attempts/1.9 yards per attempt/4.9 yards per game). But conflicting opinions have been prevalent throughout the fantasy community, regarding the level of improvement that he displayed during his second year. Once fantasy GMs extract themselves from that ongoing argument, the fact remains that Tampa Bay deployed a third-round pick on Vaughn, which indicated their reluctance to entrust Jones as the unchallenged lead back. This presented Vaughn with a potential pathway toward a significant touch total during his rookie season.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn paced the Vanderbilt offense on the ground as they pulled-off the upset over Missouri!

(Via @SECNetwork)pic.twitter.com/qYByNLjPal

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 21, 2019

The Hype Has Halted

Vaughn's opportunity to make an immediate statistical impact fueled enthusiasm for the newcomer as his stock soared after the NFL Draft. His ADP rose to Round 7 in NFFC drafts during late June (76). This placed him at RB32, which was also two slots above Jones at that point in the offseason.

SEC countdown take 2: SEC football returns in 52 days!

Vanderbilt didn’t have many highlights last season but Ke’Shawn Vaughn was able to provide a few for the Commodores including this 52-yard touchdown run against LSU pic.twitter.com/2AAn9yqXxC

— that SEC podcast (@thatSECpodcast) August 5, 2020

However, much has transpired since that initial surge in passion for targeting Vaughn in the middle rounds, as his ADP dropped to 122/RB43 by the conclusion of August. He was confronted by multiple hurdles, including the challenges of a shortened offseason. The usual calendar of team activities was condensed substantially, which automatically forced Vaughn to contend with the absence of rookie minicamp, OTAs, and the team's mandatory minicamp. This problem was intensified by Vaughn’s encounter with COVID-19, which sidelined him during the Buccaneers’ eventual training camp for over a week.

The team’s decision to add six-time Pro Bowler LeSean McCoy to an already crowded backfield only intensified the blend of factors that have negatively impacted Vaughn’s stock. This situation was compounded even further by Vaughn’s underwhelming performances once he did emerge at training camp.

These unwanted developments have occurred as Vaughn has been injected into an environment that operates under the direction of Bruce Arians - who is entering his 16th season as an NFL coach. Vaughn’s delayed involvement in training camp was undoubtedly a factor in Arians’ recent statement that Jones would "carry the load". Arians has also stated that Vaughn's Week 1 contributions would be limited to returning kicks.

Vaughn can still overcome the cluster of issues that have transpired during the summer. But his prospects of regaining the momentum that has evaporated with fantasy GMs will be determined by his ability to create a favorable impression with his head coach, and the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback that is beginning his first season under center with the Buccaneers.

An Offense In Transition

Arians has a track record of developing positive relationships with his quarterbacks, to maximize his teams’ chances for success. He now begins his second season in Tampa with the opportunity to build an offensive approach in coordination with Tom Brady, which will elevate the comfort level for his new signal-caller. The Buccaneers averaged a league-best 302.8 yards per game through the air last season, while also ranking seventh in pass play percentage (62.3%). That was an aerial attack that was spearheaded by Jameis Winston and the transition to Brady will automatically require modifications in how the passing game is implemented. Brady will also have the luxury of locating the talented tandem of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. 

Godwin and Evans were both among the top four in yardage, and touchdowns after Week 14, before they both encountered season-ending hamstring injuries. But they still placed among the top five in point per game scoring for the season, while combining for 2,490 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Tom Brady to Mike Evans in the corner of the end zone pic.twitter.com/K1LElPLc7x

— PewterReport (@PewterReport) August 30, 2020

Evans’ average depth of target (aDOT) was nearly five yards higher than Godwin’s (15.2/10.5). But despite apprehension about Brady's remaining arm strength Arians will concoct an approach that enables his quarterback to locate both receivers with great frequency.

That also reduces the likelihood of Brady being asked to generate throws that he is ill-equipped to launch. Rob Gronkowski's reemergence will also provide Brady with a familiar presence at tight end.

Tampa Bay's ground game was less impressive than the passing attack during 2019, as the Buccaneers only ranked 24th overall (95.1 yards per game). They also finished 27th with an average of 3.7 yards per attempt. The rushing attack did finish fourth in red zone scoring percentage (64.8), although Barber was the team leader in attempts (22) and yardage (56) inside the 20.

Competition For Touches

The decision to draft Jones occurred before Arians’ arrival, which eliminates the potential for excessive loyalty toward the third-year back. But Arians’ recent comments have made it clear that Jones has confiscated RB1 responsibilities. There is potential that his words were delivered as a source of motivation to Vaughn, who must accelerate his development following the reduced involvement in team activities.

Arians will also be searching for satisfaction with his stable of running backs during the season, and it is uncertain that either Jones or Vaughn can play with the proficiency that would result in sustained lead back duties.

The Buccaneers selected Jones with the 38th overall pick during the 2018 NFL Draft, but his rookie season was forgettable. He only performed on 90  offensive snaps, carried just 23 times, and could only manufacture an anemic 44 yards with his limited number of attempts. That placed him behind Barber, and Jacquizz Rodgers, as Jones failed to perform to his draft pedigree. He also collected seven of his nine targets for just 33 yards as a receiver and remained a liability in pass protection.

But his snap count percentage rose to 36% last season, as his attempts (172), yardage (724), and touchdown totals (6) increased. Jones also accrued 309 receiving yards on 31 receptions. But despite his universal improvement in multiple categories, Vaughn’s route to a sizable workload still appeared accessible following the NFL Draft.

Unfortunately for anyone who envisioned Vaughn commandeering RB1 duties in his first season, it is troubling that the Buccaneers signed 32-year old McCoy in late July. The former NFL rushing leader (2013) begins his 12^th season with his fourth team and is unlikely to resurrect the lofty numbers that he achieved during his peak years. However, he does provide a veteran presence in the backfield, and his resume includes over 11,000 rushing yards and 73 touchdowns.

I could watch LeSean McCoy highlights all day pic.twitter.com/sffjQGYD72

— 360°FantasyFootball (@360FFB) April 3, 2020

The addition of McCoy revealed Arians' reluctance to enter Week 1 with a backfield that was comprised of only Vaughn, Jones, and Ogunbowale. McCoy remains fully capable of procuring a respectable workload, and he could receive the highest percentage of touches in Week 1 - if Jones' foot injury becomes more serious than anticipated.

Vaughn’s Outlook

While enough fantasy GM's have retained enough confidence in Jones to propel his ADP into Round 5, there are tangible reasons why he is not receiving universal interest during the draft process. But there is also a strong likelihood that he will seize lead back duties in the aftermath of Vaughn’s substantial stock drop. Jones' ability to sustain that role throughout the season will be dependent on his ability to perform effectively as a rusher, receiver, and blocker. He must also elude health issues, which includes overcoming the current problem with his foot.

Jones's deficiencies during his first two seasons also built the foundation for believing that Vaughn could quickly assume a sizable role in the rushing attack. But the convergence of factors that were mentioned previously makes it unlikely that Vaughn can emerge atop the depth chart during the early portion of the regular season. It also ensures that he will not live up to the hype that was so prevalent earlier this summer.

While Vaughn may not be permanently planted in the abyss, he does need to demonstrate improvement in every major aspect of his on-field responsibilities. Not only is it important that Arians attain a favorable comfort level with Vaughn, but it is also incumbent on the newcomer to gain Brady’s trust as both a dependable receiver and a reliable pass blocker.

If he displays growth at these essential skills and can run with effectiveness, then he would garner a larger percentage of touches than his current trajectory would project. Jones’s stock could be altered at any time if he fails to satisfy Arians or loses the confidence of Brady.

But until that occurs, Vaughn’s hype train will remain stagnant. His plunging ADP does provide you with an opportunity to re-consider Vaughn at his reduced cost in Round 11. Jones still possesses his own inadequacies which will keep the runway open for Vaughn to capture an expanded role during the season.

More ADP Busts and Avoids