RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! After nearly a three-month hiatus from the PGA Tour, we are finally back to action this weekend at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I hope everyone has stayed safe and healthy during these troubling times, and it should be a welcoming sight to have professional golf included again in our daily routines.
While I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye.
Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality.
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Charles Schwab Challenge - PGA DFS Overview
Colonial Country Club
7,209 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass
Colonial Country Club typically draws a respectable field, especially considering that it followed the PGA Championship last year and still brought nine of the top-20 players in the world to Forth Worth, Texas. However, all of that can be thrown out the window in 2020, as the event not only doesn't have to worry about succeeding one of the biggest tournaments of the year but also due to the fact it is the first event back after a three-month hiatus from professional golf. From a gambling or DFS perspective, there are many variables that we will get into as this article progresses, but let's try to stick to what we can accurately depict from a course viewpoint.
Colonial Country Club measures in as one of the shortest courses on tour at 7,209 yards, but don't let the lack of length confuse you. Ranking inside the top-10 in terms of difficulty in 2019, Colonial becomes a tricky venue to handicap because there isn't a particular style to pinpoint for the week. Bombers have found success here in the past, but the past five winners wouldn't necessarily be the who's who of length.
Driving accuracy will come into play, as the tree-lined fairways at the property do have the propensity to stymie second shots from advancing as anything more than a punch-out. Greens are on the small side of things, and golfers will need to be dialed-in with their irons and short games to avoid giving away shots. I always find it challenging to place much emphasis on driving accuracy with the way players bomb-and-gouge nowadays and prefer to look at ball-striking or fairways gained. When you add in strokes gained tee to green, proximity from 125-175 yards and par-four average, you get a decently good indicator of what might be needed this weekend in Texas.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Colonial Country Club | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 276 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 55% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 63% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 58% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.46 | 0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 12/1, Justin Thomas at 16/1 and Bryson DeChambeau/Webb Simpson at 22/1, respectively. Four additional players slot in at 28/1, and your defending champion of this event, Kevin Na, comes into the festivities at 55/1.
Key Stats
- Par-Four Average 20%
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green 20%
- Strokes Gained Approach 17.5%
- Strokes Gained Around the Green +Putting 15%
- Proximity From 125-175 Yards 15%
- Ball Striking 12.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event, please click here.
High-Priced DFS Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000:
Rory McIlroy ($11,800)
It isn't easy to be overly encouraged about anyone priced this highly for the first event back. I do want to clarify that it will not come as a surprise if Rory McIlroy does torch the field en route to victory, but his expensive price tag, moderately high ownership percentage and lack of golf at Colonial Country Club will have me looking elsewhere as we get back into the swing of things.
There is an added level of volatility that we are going to have to embrace if we hope to find success early into the restart, and there is no other way around it...McIlroy needs a victory to payoff his nearly $12,000 mark. Could it happen? Sure. But I'd much prefer to make him beat me at a venue that might negate his length off the tee.
Jon Rahm ($11,000)
I believe the general consensus around the industry is that a more balanced approach when it comes to builds is proper for week one. Early indications would deviate slightly from that narrative with Jon Rahm projecting to be one of the highest owned players on DraftKings, but I think the consistent tone amongst industry experts of "avoiding chalk" or "dodging the top of the board" will take its toll as the week progresses.
It wouldn't shock me to see Rahm eventually settle in somewhere around the 10 percent range of ownership, which is intriguing for a golfer that I have slotted as having the best win equity of anyone in the event. I think the methodical/balance natured build will do wonders for cash-games, but I love rolling the dice on the Spaniard in GPP lineups. It is worth noting that Rahm is also grading out as one of the most steady plays of the week for me in any game type, but it will just come down to what kind of lineup you can build around him in cash-games.
Justin Thomas ($10,600)
We do have a handful of information pointing in Justin Thomas' favor this weekend in Texas. While the weekly scorecards he posts from his rounds with Rickie Fowler haven't proven successful when it comes to beating his friend, we at least know he has been active throughout the break - which is more than we can say about a handful of players. Thomas' game tends to show up at venues that reward mid-to-short iron prowess, and he ranks first in the field this weekend in proximity from 125-150 yards and 150-175 yards.
It is less than ideal that the American has not teed it up during an event at Colonial Country Club in his career, but the course layout does set up nicely for the fourth-ranked player in the world. We can talk all we want about welcoming volatility to begin these first few weeks, but it is vital to continue to play golfers that have enhanced win equities compared to the field. Thomas is someone I will be avoiding in cash-games, but his winning upside makes him an attractive option to deploy in GPP fields.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100)
DFS golf sometimes is about posting your flag on a specific side of the green and sticking to your guns. Bryson DeChambeau's current form and improved play in 2020 can mostly be chalked up to a workout regimen that has seen him add muscle to his frame and speed to his clubhead, but we might want to pump the brakes ever so slightly at a test such as Colonial.
I'm not necessarily advocating a full-fade of the big-hitting American, but DeChambeau is going to find himself as a popular choice this weekend in Texas, even though he has missed three cuts at the venue in four years. A share of 42nd place in 2018 is the best result we have on record for the 26-year-old at this event, making him someone that is receiving support solely based on what we have seen earlier in the year. With all the uncertainty surrounding this week's tournament, I'd prefer to pinpoint my attention elsewhere.
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Mid-Priced DFS Players
Webb Simpson ($9,800)
My friend Joe Nicely added an interesting point about Webb Simpson when writing his 'Horse For The Course' article this week at Rotoballer, saying "It's not that unusual to see (Simpson) go 3-5 weeks between starts a couple of times during the regular season. So while this length of layoff for the entire PGA Tour is not anything we've ever seen before, it feels like Simpson might be able to handle it better than most."
It remains to be seen if Joe's narrative ends up being correct, but it doesn't hurt to think outside of the box when trying to dissect a situation that we have never seen occur. Simpson's ability to hit fairways and greens has given him two top-five finishes in his past three attempts at Colonial, and he is probably one of the safest cash-game plays on the board. His hefty ownership percentage will have me using him more sparingly in GPP contests, but the 34-year-old checks just about all the boxes you would hope to see in Texas.
Brooks Koepka ($9,700)
Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose and Jordan Spieth should all be considered wild cards at Colonial, and while we will get to my thoughts on the other two shortly, I believe Koepka is most likely the golfer you want to own when it comes to GPP contests or outright bets. It appeared to me that the third-ranked player in the world made a conscious effort to turn his game around heading into the Players Championship and videos of his practice sessions while in quarantine further emphasized that viewpoint.
I find it very encouraging that the American has decided to give it a go in the first week of golf starting back up, and I do believe there is a chance that Koepka can make his 28/1 outright price look laughable if things have begun to click in the past few months. There is always some risk with playing the third-ranked player in the world in something that isn't a major, but the motivation should be there to quiet his critics, which is good enough for me to take a chance on the supremely talented golfer.
Xander Schauffele ($9,600)
I don't have a strong stance either way on Xander Schauffele. Statistically, he appears to be an ideal fit for the venue, ranking inside the top-30 compared to the field in strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green + strokes gained putting, ball striking, par-four average and scrambling, yet Schauffele has struggled at Colonial during his career by posting two consecutive missed cuts and a 48th place finish in 2017. I tend to side with statistics winning out when things are close, but the lack of golf for all players isn't necessarily ideal for that argument.
Dustin Johnson ($9,500)
I might be the biggest Dustin Johnson apologist in the world. I've made countless excuses for his struggles in majors, and I've even started to justify his recent travails in weekly events. However, as someone that has consistently been looking at the glass being half full, I'm not quite sure I can support the fifth-ranked player in the world in week one.
I want to make it clear that I don't think Johnson has been nearly as faulty as many would lead you to believe in 2020, but a lengthy layoff doesn't seem ideal for someone that has been known to be nonchalant during his free time. DJ was arguably the worst player on the course during his tag-team Skins match with Rory McIlroy against Rickie Fowler and Matthew Wolff, and I think you are swinging too aggressively for the fence if you overlook all the red flags coming into the event.
Rickie Fowler ($9,400)
I think we see the usually popular Rickie Fowler see a slight uptick in ownership from where it should be because of the 'Skins Match' that he played a few weeks ago. Fowler did his part in carrying Matthew Wolff through portions of that event and even had a chance to pull the upset if it weren't for his horrible shank during the playoff hole.
Fowler's short game ability does make him a viable threat to find success at a venue that features miniature greens, but it will be essential for him to dial-in his irons if he wants to avoid the continuous scramble for par. Unfortunately, Fowler's approach game hasn't been something we can steadily count on in 2020, and it remains to be seen if the layoff will hurt his feel from 175 yards and in even further. Consider the American a volatile GPP option.
Sungjae Im ($9,300)
Many jokes can be made about Sungjae Im never taking a week off and what that will mean for him as golf restarts its season, but aside from the zinger or two that is being thrown his way, it will be interesting to see if it has any effect on his game. Any opinion of what to expect is purely speculative, but I do lean towards Im being a safer cash-game option than most of his counterparts in this range.
Patrick Reed ($9,200)
Ranked inside the top-10 in the field in par-four average, Patrick Reed has found steady success at Colonial in his career, posting three consecutive top-46 results at the venue. His short game expertise should make him worth a look in all formats, but his high ownership percentage and poor ball striking numbers will have me second-guessing him in spots.
Justin Rose ($9,000)
Deciding what to do with Justin Rose isn't easy this week. His split with Honma has given him a few months to sort out his equipment issue plaguing his season, but it is still troubling to trust a golfer that has missed three of his previous four cuts.
I can understand the intrigue around him as an outright wager at 40/1 because of his upside, but I'm not necessarily running to the bank to back him, nor am I getting involved with him on DFS sites at his $9,000 price tag and 11% projected ownership total. I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a bounceback of sorts, but a lot of his infatuation gets taken away because of his popularity.
Gary Woodland ($8,800)
There are two frames of mind surrounding Gary Woodland. On a positive note, the American had posted six top-12 finishes in his previous eight starts before the layoff placed the season on halt. On the negative side of things, Woodland failed to gain strokes around the green in any of those showings, even if only five of those results had recorded shot trackers.
Colonial Country Club does feature some of the smallest greens on tour and could prove to be an issue if the 36-year-old is not in mid-season form, but it would be difficult to argue against the rest of his game being picture-perfect for the course.
Tony Finau ($8,700)
If I have learned anything about Tony Finau over the past few years, it is that he has a bad habit of disappointing when chalky and excelling when under-the-radar. This week, the Utah native enters the fray as one of the most popular DraftKings selections on the board, currently ranking second in projected ownership. Admittingly, he is within the top-five of my model because of his ability around the green, but I don't think this is some clear-cut spot to deploy the American in all formats. Finau did not look like himself before the break and becomes a risky proposition if he goes off as one of the highest owned players of the week.
Shane Lowry ($8,600)
I'm not typically one that gets behind pre-tournament talk from golfers, but we are going to have to learn to accept what comes out of their mouths for the next little bit. Shane Lowry had a quote that hasn't seemed to gain any traction throughout the industry yet, but I found it encouraging on many levels. Lowry claimed to have "no fear of rust" and went on to say that he feels better about his game right now than he would at the start of the year.
While no player has won at Colonial Country Club in their first attempt since Sergio Garcia in 2001, this is about as far from being a typical year as possible. Lowry's game would seem to be right at home at a venue that can play difficult, and there is contrarian appeal for those playing GPP contests.
Matt Kuchar ($8,500)
My favorite play on the board in any fashion this week is Matt Kuchar, who surprisingly graded out number one for me in my model. Kuchar is currently hovering around 11% projected ownership, but I do have a feeling that has more to do with his cash-game appeal than anything else. The American has not surpassed 10% ownership in GPP contests over his previous four starts and might fall just short of that total again because of his perceived lack of upside.
At a venue that plays challenging during a typical year, Kuchar's consistency makes him even more appealing with the extended time off every player has had to endure. I am fine firing up the 17th-ranked player in the world across the board this week in Texas and am expecting a quality result.
Jordan Spieth ($8,000)
It is essential to understand what we are getting with Jordan Spieth. Four top-eight finishes over his previous five attempts at Colonial Country Club, which includes a victory in 2016 and two runner-up results over that duration of time, might explain some of what we could see transpire this weekend in Texas, but it is critical we don't stop there. I could hammer away at all the statistical information that has plagued Spieth over the past two-plus seasons on tour, and they are all reasons worth mentioning, but the most significant deterrent comes down to risk/reward.
Part of the attraction around the 14-time winner worldwide during his poor stretch of golf was that we were getting him at a minimal ownership total. Contrarian takes can pay handsomely in DFS golf, and a player such as Spieth sometimes can be the 'Golden Child' to fantasy riches. Ironically, the 26-year-old never quite seemed to pay off his investors, yet a three-month break has turned the fantasy community into believers that something has changed.
It surely is possible that we see Spieth perform again in his home state, but there is a massive difference between taking that chance at sub-five percent ownership and beating that drum when he is one of the highest owned players on the board. There's enough volatility to account for this weekend as it is, and I don't see the upside in hand-tying myself to a chalky, erratic option.
Low-Priced DFS Players
Byeong Hun An ($7,400)
I'm not one that generally incorporates putting into my research, and it must be noted that I did dilute its impact by combing the statistic alongside strokes gained around the green, but I did find it reassuring to see Byeong Hun An grade inside the top-10 of my model with any putting present. I'm not sure it quite reaches the level of being stable, but the South Korean has done his best work on Bentgrass greens during his career - a moderately decent sign that we might be able to avoid the absolute explosion of poor putting that has troubled him in the past.
Hun An remains one of the best pure ball strikers in the world, the top-ranked player around the green in this field, and we can only hope that he has figured out something with his flat stick during the time off. If he has, An has the potential to surprise the industry with his first victory.
Joaquin Niemann ($7,400)
Unlike some golfers who consistently show no touch around the green, Joaquin Niemann has had flashes of brilliance in his young career. A seven-tournament stretch in 2019 saw him gain strokes with that part of his game in each outing, including six of those appearances earning over one stroke. Niemann has had absolute implosions thrown into the mix here and there, but I do believe his overall strokes lost in his career can be pinpointed to his level of erraticness. Niemann ranks just 92nd in par-five birdie or better percentage compared to the field, but the par-70 nature of the event should help him gain two extra par-fours, giving him a better opportunity to find success.
Matthew Wolff ($7,400)
There won't be many that are more bearish than me on Matthew Wolff this week. I was not impressed with his game during the charity match he played with Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler, and it does seem likely he will experience an extremely minimal bump in ownership after taking part in that event. Wolff has never played Colonial, typically thrives at venues that allow him to use his length and has demonstrated one of the most inconsistent short games on tour. Colonial's small greens could prove to be disastrous for the youngster, making him someone I will be looking to oppose heavily in the head-to-head market.
Ryan Moore ($7,200)
I suppose it is possible that we would have seen Ryan Moore generating more buzz if he just hadn't played at Colonial in the past five years. Moore's share of 67th place in 2017 has not helped to create intrigue around the former UNLV product, but there are a handful of reasons to give him a second look. The 37-year-old is a top-notch wind player, great with his short-to-mid irons and always is one of the most accurate players off the tee. That combination is exactly what we are hoping to find when we sink this far down in salary, making Moore playable in just about any game type.
Corey Conners ($7,100)
Corey Conners is one of four players in the field this week who ranks inside the top-20 in strokes gained approach and outside the top-100 in strokes gained putting (Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo and Byeong Hun An are the additional three). Conners' putting and short game continue to dampen his results weekly, but he is always a hot putter away from shocking the golf world with another victory out of left field. You shouldn't trust him in your cash-game lineup, but you might want to consider sprinkling him into a few GPP builds.
Bernhard Langer ($6,000)
Colonial Country Club has often been described as an old-style course that appeals to the older player. It makes sense because no specific game type is necessarily suited to find success, allowing some of your more mature golfers to methodically plod their way around the venue. Even at 62 years old, Langer has consistently demonstrated that he can play with anyone in the world at the right venue. The German has held a stranglehold over the Champions Tour for nearly a decade and has been one of the most steady golfers weekly with his results.
Langer has made the cut in the past three majors that currently still count towards Official World Golf Ranking points, and it is beginning to appear as if Langer might be the lowest owned player on the board this weekend at the Charles Schwab. We don't need a victory out of the number-one ranked Champions Tour player to pay for his base salary, but I do think his upside is higher than some might imagine.
