Finally. I don’t need to tell you what, but finally. We FINALLY get to see this 76ers hype under the microscope. We FINALLY get to see if this season was just another one of LeBron James carefully crafted regular season schemes. And most importantly, we FINALLY get to see if the Rockets are actually good enough to beat the Warriors.

Basically, there are a ton of narratives to follow and if you’ve been following closely, every series has their own reasoning of why to watch. Predicting basketball is very hard so I won’t treat you like some innate consume who thinks I can predict the future. While I do pride myself on my ability to correctly predict outcomes, I’m never always right. Luckily, I watch enough to know what direction the game is going and where weaknesses will be exploited. It’s the blessing and the curse of spending every night watching the NBA. With all this, I will show you both sides of each game Saturday and you can decide what to do, I’m just here to help.

Let’s get rolling.

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Betting Preview For First Round of NBA Playoffs (Saturday, April 14th)

SA @ GS -8, 209.5

Why you should bet:

The series we all wish we had gotten will be put another hiatus. Kawhi Leonard is the make or break facet of this series and seeing how he shouldn’t be back, the Spurs don’t have a chance. The Spurs will steal one game I’m sure of it, but not this one. I’d put a firm “TAKE THIS LINE” stamp on the -8, but I’m fighting with myself over which side of 209 this game will fall. The Spurs have held up their part of the under all season, but have yet to limit the Warriors and that is what makes me worried.

The pace will be slower and if Stephen Curry remains out, you should take the under. The Warriors offense hasn’t exactly struggled without him, but they have been more inconsistent in their scoring. Even with that they still put points on the board and will be the reason why they cover the spread and hit the over. The Spurs defense is anchored by the team, not by any individual player. When you are facing one if not the most talented team in the league, you need that defensive superstar to even the gap.

Why you shouldn’t:

First game of a playoff series is always a bit of a toss-up. The Warriors can come out sluggish like how the ended the regular season, or they can come out like they say they will. There is risk going into this game although I’m confident in an 8-point Warrior win. Of course, we get a better picture a second after tip-off but not the point. I would avoid the over/under, but not the point spread.

WAS @ TOR -8, 210.5

Why you should bet:

The Wizards scraped into the playoffs this season. They lost John Wall for a good portion and the focus of the team changed. Tomas Satoransky will be in for a breakout playoff performance right off the bat, but it doesn’t change the funky infrastructure of this team. Little depth off the bench combined with a small frontcourt means trouble against the Raptors.

Seeing how the Raptors have drastically improved this season, everyone knows that nothing matters unless Toronto proves themselves in the postseason. Add in that the Wizards play better in high pressure situations and you have a good reason to take the Wizards +8 and expect them to cruise over 210.5.

Why you shouldn’t:

I highly suggest leaving this game alone. There are too many uncertainties to account for, and while predicting basketball is already dubious, when this game is going to have a ton of emotion involved, it’s hard to make a guarantee. I’m not sold on the Toronto bench being able to produce when they absolutely must and them struggling will increase the pressure and workload on the starters.

The dynamic of the team will shift in this first series and expect the Raptors to spend the entire playoffs finding a way to get the bench rolling. Either the bench starts off slow or doesn’t come out at all. There is plenty of pressure already on them and the game hasn’t even started yet.

MIA @ PHI -6, 212

Why you should bet:

This is the most highly anticipated series of the first day of playoffs. The 76ers have been streaking lately, but they still struggle to hold 4th quarter leads and can’t find a way to figuratively “step on the necks” of their opponents. This is a major weakness and what makes the playoffs special is that the pressure isn’t just present in the waning seconds of the game. From tip-off to the last buzzer, the entire game is just one big scale ready to tip to one side. While Philadelphia has the stats and the ratings to be a promising matchup, they are going up against the most team-oriented squad in the league.

The Heat thrive on adversity and they will need to execute early and make the 76ers try and come from behind. Miami has been in this scenario before and after just missing the postseason last season, you can assume they will have some type of chip on their shoulder, and don’t want to be outed by another playoff-debuting team. This game is going to revolve around the frontcourt and whether the 76ers’ shooters are actually hitting. The Heat have an athletic team that consistently defends, but their consistency in offense comes from overall inconsistent individual efforts. It’s going to be a close game and I would suggest letting this game open your eyes instead of you opening your wallet.

Why you shouldn’t:

I already told you before, but the first game of a playoff series is always sporadic. It can fall in either direction and the outcome can ultimately be determined by one player’s hot shooting. Players like Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington score in bunches, but rarely put together consecutive high scoring games. Luckily, the Heat don’t seem determined to find one specific player to get going, so don’t be surprised if the Heat steal a game one in Philadelphia. The 76ers are not composed in high pressure situations so expect that to be evident tonight. That’s too much risk to advise you possibly blowing you money on.

NOP @ POR -5.5, 217

Why you should bet:

If anything, bet on Anthony Davis having fantastic stat lines in Pelicans losses. It’s been the same narrative every year and without DeMarcus Cousins it shouldn’t change. The Trail Blazers have exceeded expectations in consecutive years and last year their biggest weakness was defense. This year they upped the defensive effort and it made drastic differences. Instead of the Trail Blazers using Damian Lillard to fight back in tough games, they used him to pile on the points. The Blazers used their defense as their backbone and the playoffs will put that on a more national scale. Davis will get to his spots, get shots off and even make an impact defensively.

Along with help from Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday, the Pelicans will win a game in Portland, but not until their backs are pushed up against the wall. Saturday night will be all about the Blazers and their role players thriving in the home atmosphere.

Why you shouldn’t:

Simply because of the three Pelicans players I mentioned, you might want to tread carefully on this game. Jrue Holiday being the bigger guard. Rondo assuming the pass-first, get-everyone-involved-all-game role. With Anthony Davis being the dominant big-man that makes or breaks every game. It’s not really whether Davis is hitting or not, it’s more just how much he produced and if it was more than the Blazers. All in all, the Pelicans have little business competing with Portland and I can see the Pelicans taking game two or three, but even then it’s hard not to see the Trail Blazers sweeping the Pelicans despite Davis averaging 40 points a game.