RADIO
When it comes to PPR formats, wide receivers are king. 2017 presents a unique opportunity for early wide receiver drafters as running backs are being scooped up at a record pace. Despite running backs' perceived dominance in 2016, wide receivers should once again assume their role on the top of the mountain. Still, even the king of the PPR position has players who are being drafted way too high.
First, let's take a look at some wide receiver being drafted in the early rounds that may come back to haunt fantasy football owners in 2017. Then, I'll offer some cheaper alternatives that could produce at a higher clip, despite having a lower ADP.
Note: All ADP data taken from Fantasy Calculator PPR formats.
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Early Round WR Risks
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL), ADP: 2.06
Bryant has been a fantasy stud and a touchdown machine over the years. For as good as Bryant is, however, he surprisingly struggles against elite corner backs. As pointed out by Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus, Bryant is the most cornerback-sensitive wide receiver over the last two years. Against top 25 corners over that time Bryant averages 1.21 points per target. Against bottom-25 corners he averages 3.30 points per target. In 2017 Bryant will play against nine top 25 corners from 2016. That is too much risk for a guy going in the middle of the second.
Dis-Honorable Mention: Amari Cooper (WR, OAK), ADP:2.06. Michael Crabtree will continue to dominate in the red zone and hinder Cooper's value.
Draft Instead: Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA), ADP: 2.10. Back-to-back top-12 PPR finishes and he should have no problem doing it again in 2017 with a healthy Russell Wilson.
Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI), ADP: 3.12
Drafters of Jeffery are still living off his 2013 monster season and decent 2014 follow-up. Over the last two years Jeffery has only played in 21 games and has yet to top 60 catches in a season. Already reports out of Eagles camp is that he is behind and ran the wrong routes during the week 2 preseason game. Drafting Jeffery is hoping he can recapture his 2013/2014 form. Unfortunately all signs are pointing to it not happening.
Dis-Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen (WR, LAC), ADP: 3.08. Still living off a big rookie season. Has yet to average over 11 YPR since rookie year and will need a huge amount of targets to pay off in an offense loaded with weapons.
Draft Instead: Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK), ADP: 4.06. At least 85 catches, 922 yards and eight touchdowns the last two years, he should continue to do more of the same in 2017.
Mid-Round Dart Throws
Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA), ADP: 5.03
Landry is typically a safe bet in PPR leagues, but that was before Smokin' Jay Cutler became the Dolphins starting quarterback. It's still very early, but Cutler seemed to prefer DeVante Parker in his first preseason start, even comparing Parker to a faster Jeffery after the game. Landry is a good player and could be a stud in a better offense, but given the fact that the Dolphins want to run a lot and Cutler's seeming crush on Parker, Landry is a player to avoid in the fifth.
Dis-Honorable Mention: Sammy Watkins (WR, LAR), ADP: 5.12. Watkins is a great player, but when Goff is your new quarterback your fantasy value is going to take a major hit. The risk is just too high now.
Draft Instead: Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN), ADP: 5.12. In the six games when Diggs was 100% healthy in 2016 (not on injury report) he averaged 22.2 PPG. Still finished as WR13 on a PPG basis. One year with Bradford will help.
Donte Moncrief (WR, IND), ADP: 8.06
Even if Andrew Luck was 100% healthy Moncrief would be a fade. He's only averaged 6.3 targets the last two years and his best season, 2015, he posted a very pedestrian 64 catch, 733 yard, six touchdown line. If Luck misses time his value will be even lower. He's being drafted based on an unsustainable touchdown rate that is due to regress. Don't chase his perceived touchdown upside.
Dis-Honorable Mention: John Brown (WR, ARI), ADP: 9.12. Health concerns and your coach talking about you not being an NFL-caliber receiver are not good combinations.
Draft Instead: Eric Decker (WR, TEN), ADP: 7.12. You want REAL touchdown upside in an emerging offense? Grab Decker.
Late-Round Hail Mary Picks
Kenny Golladay (WR, DET), ADP: 12.02
The hype is out of control. Golladay has gone from undrafted to costing you a 12th round pick in less than a week. After catching two touchdowns in his first preseason game, then getting reps with the first team in camp, Golladay truthers exploded. Things only mildly died down after T.J. Jones got first team reps in the second preseason game. Golladay is a good player, and he could have a big role on this team at some point, but for 2017 he will likely be no higher than third on the depth chart behind Golden Tate and Marvin Jones at best. He'll be hard to trust on a week to week basis.
Dis-Honorable Mention: Zay Jones (WR, BUF), ADP: 12.01. Jones was primarily a slot guy in college who will now be asked to play outside in a passing game that will likely struggle all season long.
Draft Instead: Ted Ginn, Jr. (WR, NOS), ADP: 12.01. Ginn has seen 97 and 95 targets last years in a low volume offense. Now moves to one of the highest passing offenses with one of the games best QBs to replace Brandin Cooks. Big-time upside in the late rounds.
Kevin White (WR, CHI), ADP: 13.04
How is White still a thing? After missing his entire rookie season with a broken leg, than missing 12 games in his sophomore season, White has been a major disappointment. White had zero targets in the Bears first preseason game, than followed that up with a lowly two yards on three targets in the second preseason game. It would take something close to a miracle for White to have any fantasy value in 2017 and he is a waste of a pick even in the 13th round.
Dis-Honorable Mention: Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ), ADP: 13.11. It's the Jets. Anderson's two good games in 2017 came with the backup quarterback. Did we mention it's the Jets?
Draft Instead: Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG), ADP: 13.06. Solid rookie campaign. The signing of Brandon Marshall has crushed his ADP but WR3 potential is still there in offense that threw the ball 600 times in 2016. Marshall injury away from major upside.
Wide receivers may rule the PPR format, but that doesn't mean they are all good choices. Avoiding landmines and finding values is the key to any draft day success. Use this as a guide to crush your competition.
