December 29, 2016

Justin and Jason Bales give their predictions and analysis of the UFC 207 Main Card. Use their research to get a head start on your UFC DFS lineups on DraftKings.

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament.

And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship.

Anyway, Jason and I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC 207. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records. Without anymore waiting, here are our picks and analysis for the main card at UFC 207.

Justin's Record: 74-33, Jason's Record: 58-49

Louis Smolka vs Ray Borg

Justin’s Pick 

This is an interesting matchup between two of the best flyweights in the world. Smolka is the better striker of the two, but I expect this fight to feature quite a bit of grappling. Smolka is coming off a tough loss to Brandon Moreno, and he seems to find himself in bad situations when he grapples too much throughout fights. Borg could have a slight edge, and while I don’t believe he’s going to dominate this fight, I do believe he will wait for his opportunity, and sink in a submission for the win.

Ray Borg via Submission, 3rd Round

Jason’s Pick

This is definitely going to be a back-and-forth battle, but Louis “Da Last Samurai” Smolka, despite his horrible loss to Brandon Moreno, has the edge. If he can keep his distance, Smolka will easily out-strike Ray “The Tazmexican Devil” for three rounds. If if this fight ends up in the clinch or on the ground, Smolka has the skills to defend and weather the storm. This is going to be a bounce back fight for one of the world’s best flyweights.

Louis Smolka via Unanimous Decision

Dong Hyun Kim vs Tarec Saffiedine

Justin’s Pick

Kim has had three hiccups in the UFC, but all three of them are elite competition. Tarec Saffiedine has also lost to solid competition, but he has dropped two of his last three fights. The big story in this fight will be Kim’s ring rust, as he has not fought in over a year. I expect Kim to pressure Saffiedine, while working in the clinch and working to takedowns. Once he secures top position, he can work his ground and pound on the way to another impressive victory.

Dong Hyun Kim via TKO, 3rd Round

Jason’s Pick

This fight was thrust into the main even after Dana White decided to not allow Fabricio Werdum to fight. Turning down a fight because the UFC refuses to pay enough money is the fault of the UFC, not the fighter, but that is a different story. Back to “The Stun Gun” Dong Hyun Kim and Tarec “Sponge” Saffiedine. Kim is simply the better fighter. Saffiedine has great takedown defense, but Kim will figure out a way to get him to the ground over three rounds. When he does, he will end it.

Dong Hyun Kim via TKO, 3rd Round

TJ Dillashaw vs John Lineker

Justin’s Pick

Lineker has been on a tear through the 135 lbs division, but he hasn’t faced anyone as good as Dillashaw. Dillashaw has continuously proven that he’s one of the best in the division, and he recently lost a controversial decision to Dominick Cruz to lose the belt. This fight is going to go one of two ways. Dillashaw will work his striking from a distance and avoid Lineker’s power shots on the way to a decision or Lineker will be able to walk through Dillashaw’s attacks before landing power shots that will end the fight. I believe the former is more likely to happen in a three round fight.

TJ Dillashaw via Unaimous Decision

Jason’s Pick

Well, Vegas is completely wrong on this one. There is no argument about who the better striker is – TJ Dillashaw can run circles around John “Hands of Stone” Lineker, but Lineker has a great chin and fantastic power in his hands. Dillashaw is going to look to keep his distance, but that distance will close eventually. Lineker recently won a fight against John Dodson that went much of the same way this fight is going to go. If Dillashaw gets too cocky, expect that big punch to land flush.

John Lineker via KO, 2nd Round

Dominick Cruz vs Cody Garbrandt

Justin’s Pick

This is the fight I’m most looking forward to. Cruz is the better fighter, but Garbrandt has fight changing power in his hands. Cruz seemingly knows what his opponents are going to do before they do it, which has led to elite defense. Garbrandt is an active fighter, who throws with fight ending intentions in every shot. He has destroyed everyone in his path early in his career, but he also has yet to fight anyone in the top-5 of the division. I believe Cruz will give Garbrandt fits early in the fight, but it’s going to be difficult to avoid his power for five rounds. Eventually, he lands a shot that rocks Cruz before putting him away.

Cody Garbrandt via TKO, 2nd Round

Jason’s Pick

Again, toss those Vegas odds out the window. Dominick “The Dominator” Cruz is undoubtedly a fantastic fighter. He is one of the best in the world. However, Cody “No Love” Garbrandt has a certain kind of power that most fighters in the Bantamweight division do not possess. Garbrandt will eventually find a spot for his powerful hands, and that spot will likely be on Cruz’s face. In a perfect world, Garbrandt wins the title and John Lineker beats TJ Dillashaw. That would lead to one of the most exciting fights in UFC history.

Cody Garbrandt via TKO, 2nd Round

Amanda Nunes vs Ronda Rousey

Justin’s Pick

I think this fight is much more black and grey than people are making it. Yes, Rousey is the favorite by Vegas, but that likely has more to do with her name than the two fighters. She has been dealing with personal demons during her break after the Holm fight, and she is likely dealing with some doubts, as she won’t be addressing the media. Fighters can’t doubt themselves in the octagon, and I believe Rousey is filled with doubt right now. She’s going to be facing someone who has fight ending power, and Nunes will likely start quick and look to put Rousey away before she can gain any confidence. Rousey certainly has a path to victory, but I see Nunes dominating her early and scoring another first round finish.

Amanda Nunes via TKO, 1st Round

Jason’s Pick

Okay, forget about Vegas completely on this card. In a popularity contest, "Rowdy" Ronda Rousey would take home the belt without question. In an actual fight, she will have to avoid the powerful hands of Amanda “The Lioness” Nunes. Nunes is one of the best fighters in the world, obviously. She is the champion for a reason, but she is getting absolutely no credit. There is a huge chip on her shoulder, and if she puts away Rousey early, the UFC will have to start respecting her. If Nunes gasses herself out, and Rousey can weather the storm, it will start looking better and better for the ex-champ. The longer this fight goes, the more likely Rousey is to win. Unfortunately for Rousey, it is not going to last all that long.

Amanda Nunes via TKO, 1st Round