RADIO
It’s now less than 30 days from the NBA trade deadline (Feb. 18th, 3pm) and likely even closer to your fantasy trade deadline. A lot can change both in the NBA and on your fantasy team overnight, and even relatively small moves in the NBA can launch guys into fantasy relevance (for example, Isaiah Thomas and Reggie Jackson last season). However, a trade can also destroy a players value just as easily - we call that a Rondo.
In this series I’ll look to highlight some of the players I think will be impacted the most from potential trades. In addition, I’ll touch on some guys whose minutes, and fantasy value, could increase or decrease substantially as the season progresses due to a variety of other factors. This usually includes younger guys on bad teams who are out of playoff contention. Even though we’re just over half way done with the fantasy season, it’s never too early to look ahead and grab guys who will have guaranteed minutes during the crucial rounds of the playoffs.
I’ll take a look at some interesting guys around the league to buy low, sell high, or wait a week or two until trade rumors get more serious. Check out Part 1 of my Players to Buy Low before the NBA Trade Deadline here.
NBA Trade Deadline: Players to Buy Low, Part 2
Trevor Ariza (SG/SF, HOU)
I’m not quite sure who yet, but someone is being traded on the Houston Rockets. One person that will definitely not be shipped off is Trevor Ariza. He represents the only wing player on the Rockets that can both shoot (sorry Corey Brewer) and play defense (sorry James Harden). Most likely one or both of Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas will be finding a new home soon, which will unclog some rotational issues, and hopefully help this team reach full potential.
A big part of that potential is Trevor Ariza. Everyone knows what James Harden and Dwight Howard are capable of, but they’ll need help from the supporting cast of Ariza, Patrick Beverley, and Ty Lawson (if he’s still on the team) if they want to compete in the brutal Western Conference.
Unfortunately for Ariza, a lot of his success from a fantasy perspective depends on the overall team chemistry, because he is so dependent on spot up shooting. Ariza does not excel in creating his own shot, instead he does his best work off-ball finding open spots (mostly on the three point line) and depending on his teammates to pass him the ball. I think this has been the biggest reason for Ariza’s sluggish start--the team just isn’t clicking.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, though. The Rockets are just too talented on paper not to figure it out. I strongly believe they will make a move at the trade deadline to clean up some of the pieces that don’t fit. No, I’m not making any predictions on what those moves might be, there’s been too many different scenarios floating around on the internet (i.e Lawson to MIL, Howard to MIA) to sift out the real possibilities. Nonetheless, I’ll bet on Daryl Morey making a smart move to ensure his team competes this year.
In addition to getting a fantasy boost from an inevitable team turnaround, Ariza has been known to turn it up a notch over the second half of the season. Year after year, his stats and percentages increase across the board after the All-Star Break, and I would bet that trend continues this season. Last year, Ariza increased his FG% and 3P% from 37.8% and 33.1% to 45.2% and 38.7% after the All-Star break. Right now Ariza is shooting 39.5% from the field and 35% from three point range--better than what he was doing before the All-Star break last season.
I wouldn’t wait to try and grab Ariza. Don't overpay for him, but if you can get a fair deal for him at his current value, you have to pull the trigger. Not only do I think it’s a lock that he improves his production over the second half of the season, but he’s not a risky bet at all. Ariza is about as consistent as they come. His current production is effectively his floor--the only direction for his production to go is up.
Zach LaVine (PG/SG, MIN)
Word on the internet is that Kevin Martin already has one foot out the door in Minnesota, and the Timberwolves are merely just trying to find the best trade available. Martin is the only thing standing between Zach LaVine and 30 or more minutes a game. Over the last week or so, LaVine has even seen a slight dip in minutes, but I guarantee that’s just so they can showcase Martin a little more, and show potential suitors he can help a contender win the title.
Once Martin is gone, LaVine will be freed, and that’s when you’ll have a great opportunity to steal some serious fantasy value at a crucial part of the season. Right now he’s only 34% owned, so there’s a good chance he’s sitting on your waiver wire right now.
Just as a quick reminder, this was pretty much the same situation LaVine was in last year heading into the all-star break, but instead of a Kevin Martin trade, he got a Kevin Martin injury which helped produce the below Pre/Post all-star splits:
2014-15 Pre All-Star: 21.7 MPG, 3.0 FGM, 7.1 FGA, 41.4 FG%, 0.4 3PM, 1.4 3PA, 28.4 3P%, 1.3 FTM, 1.6 FTA, 80.8 FT%, 2.1 REB, 3.2 AST, 2.1 TOV, 0.8 STL, 0.1 BL, 7.6 PTS
2014-15 Post All-Star: 29.7 MPG, 5.0 FGM, 11.5 FGA, 43.1 FG%, 1.3 3PM, 3.4 3PA, 38.0 3P%, 3.0 FTM, 3.4 FTA, 86.9 FT%, 3.9 REB, 4.2 AST, 3.2 TOV, 0.6 STL, 0.1 BLK, 14.2 PTS
I’ve highlighted the four categories that not only made the biggest jump, but also had the biggest impact on fantasy value. As you can see, all it took was an extra 8 minutes a game for this leap in overall production.
Now let’s take a look at his stats so far this year, and his projected stats based on his production increase last year with the extra minutes:
2015-16 Pre All-Star: 23.0 MIN, 4.4 FGM, 10.6 FGA, 41.4 FG%, 0.9 3PM, 2.8 3PA, 33.1 3P%, 2.1 FTM, 2.5 FTA, 83.3 FT%, 3.1 REB, 3.1 AST, 2.0 TOV, 0.6 STL, 0.1 BLK, 11.8 PTS
2015-16 Post All-Star (Proj.): 31.5 MIN, 7.3 FGM, 17.2 FGA, 43.1 FG%, 2.9 3PM, 6.8 3PA, 44.3 3P%, 4.8 FTM, 5.3 FTA, 89.6 FT%, 5.8 REB, 4.1 AST, 3.0 TOV, 0.6 STL, 0.1 BLK, 22.0 PTS
Ok, so maybe 22 points a game is a little farfetched, but I think around 18 points, five rebounds, five assists, and two 3PM a game is definitely in play. LaVine has a better roster around him, which should give an even bigger boost to assists than last year, and definitely give a few more open three’s. Obviously my projections don’t account for a lot of variables, but I think it’s a pretty good baseline to support that his production will increase substantially with more minutes.
I know, all of this is pending on a Martin trade, but there’s also the chance the oft-injured Ricky Rubio goes down with another ankle issue, and voila, Zach LaVine falls into 30 minutes a game (with probably a much higher usage percentage). Basically, Zach LaVine has a few routes to 30 minutes a game, and honestly, there’s a decent shot both Martin and Rubio aren’t playing for the Timberwolves one way or another by the end of the year.
Although I don’t think he’s quite as safe a bet as Devin Booker, Zach LaVine has a chance to make a serious impact on the second half of the fantasy basketball season. This one of those situations where if you have an extra roster slot (and your team is very good), or you need to take a chance to make a playoff push in your league, Zach LaVine is your guy. However, if you’re right in the middle of the pack and don’t really have any clear drop candidates, you might need to wait--but be prepared to pull the trigger when the time comes.
Bojan Bogdanovic (SG/SF)
Brooklyn, like Houston, is a team I’m convinced will make a move...I just have no idea what it will be. The Brooklyn Nets have been allegedly putting their feelers out for trade possibilities including Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young, and Joe Johnson. If any one of those players is moved, especially Joe Johnson or Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic could be launched into a much larger role very quickly.
No this is not a joke, I really think Bojan will be the biggest beneficiary of any moves the Nets make this season. Most likely the Nets will get young prospects and picks in return, and will leave the roster barren of competent talent. If two or even three of the previously mentioned players are shipped off, we could be looking at the Brooklyn 76ers--it’ll get that ugly. To put things in perspective, with Jarrett Jack already out for the year, Bojan Bogdanovic would be the highest scoring player on the roster if all three were to be traded.
Now I’m not predicting Bogdanovic will be a 20 point a night scorer, but I think 15 points a night is definitely possible, and he also contributes in rebounds and assists. He might not be efficient doing so, but the Nets will likely give him all the playing time he can handle, and the green light to shoot from anywhere. Bojan is a high risk, high reward target, but if the Nets make the moves I think they will, his fantasy potential for the second half of the season will skyrocket. Bojan isn’t going to be a top-30 or even 40 player, but I think top 50 or 60 is definitely in play. He could end up being a really nice player to round out your roster.
Right now he is only 30% owned on Yahoo, and is producing relatively inconsistently right now, so I’d hold off on pulling the trigger. He’s probably not on anyone’s radar yet. However, in the next few weeks, as news begins to get more serious regarding potential Brooklyn trades, don’t hesitate to pick him up a little early. He could pay off huge if there's a Brooklyn firesale.
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