RADIO
Now that we've entered the MLB offseason, it's time to talk qualifying offers. Teams will spend the next few days deciding whether or not to extend a qualifying offer to their impending free agents.
The qualifying offer system was designed to replace the old arbitration-based system that used Type A, B, and C free agents. If the qualifying offer is rejected, the team will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the amateur draft. The team signing the player will lose their first available pick unless their pick is in the top 10 of the draft. The top 10 picks of the draft are protected so the team will lose their second highest draft pick. If a team signs more than one free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, they'll lose an equal number of unprotected draft picks.
The MLB determines the qualifying offer by taking the average salary of the top 125 contracts in baseball. Last year's qualifying offer was $15.3 million and this year will see a $500,000 increase to $15.8 million. All qualifying offers are for one year.
In addition, if a player was traded midseason, he is ineligible for a qualifying offer. A team that acquired an eventual free agent does not have the benefit of receiving a compensation pick.
Here are the free agents and the likelihood of them receiving a qualifying offer this offseason:
Players that will likely receive a qualifying offer
Wei-Yin Chen, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Chris Davis, 1B/DH, Baltimore Orioles
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles
Dexter Fowler, OF, Chicago Cubs
Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago White Sox
Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals
Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
John Lackey, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Jason Heyward, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Daniel Murphy, 2B, New York Mets
Justin Upton, OF, San Diego Padres
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, Seattle Mariners
Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals
This appears to be the cream of the free agent crop. These players will likely receive multi-year deals so a rejection of the one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer appears obvious.
Players like Chris Davis, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are certain to receive qualifying offers. Davis, Heyward and Upton have proven to be talented and at premier points in their career. Starting pitchers Wei-Yin Chen, Zack Greinke, and John Lackey are heading into free agency with a strong final year under their belt. Alex Gordon is another player to watch.
Other players like Matt Wieters, Jeff Samardzija, Howie Kendrick and Ian Desmond will receive qualifying offers due to their success throughout their career, even with sub-par performances in their free agency year. They're all young enough to seek out multi-year contracts.
Players who may receive a qualifying offer
Colby Rasmus, OF, Houston Astros
Brett Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ian Kennedy, SP, San Diego Padres
Yovani Gallardo, SP, Texas Rangers
Marco Estrada, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Denard Span, OF, Washington Nationals
Yovani Gallardo's durable history ensures he'll receive a qualifying offer. He's pitched at least 180.0 innings in his past seven full seasons in the majors. On the other side, Brett Anderson will be one of the younger starting pitchers to enter this year's free agency. Unfortunately, the risk in offering him a qualifying offer is his history, pitching in fewer than 100.0 innings in four of his last five full seasons in the majors. Turning 28 before the start of next year, Anderson will have a high note to sell himself on, reaching his career-high 180.1 innings.
Ian Kennedy and Colby Rasmus put together respectable campaigns entering free agency. The 28-year-old Rasmus reached a career-high 25 home runs but backed that up with a career-high 154 strikeouts.
Players who are unlikely to receive a qualifying offer
Darren O'Day, RP, Baltimore Orioles
Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers
Rajai Davis, OF, Detroit Tigers
David Freese, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
Chris Iannetta, C, Los Angeles Angels
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Dioner Navarro, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Doug Fister, SP/RP, Washington Nationals
These players are good but there is a likelihood they would accept a one-year, $15.8 million contract; therefore, they will not have a chance at receiving the qualifying offer. An interesting name here is Doug Fister. Once a starting pitcher, ineffectiveness on an underwhelming season by the Washington Nationals relegated him to the bullpen. The 31-year-old Fister was once a 14 and 16-game winner in his previous two years so there is a chance teams will take a chance for his significant ground ball rates in hopes of rediscovering what made him such an effective starting pitcher.
Players who will not be receiving a qualifying offer
A.J. Pierzynski, C, Atlanta Braves
Steve Pearce, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles
Chris Denorfia, OF, Chicago Cubs
Justin Morneau, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Joe Nathan, RP, Detroit Tigers
Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Kansas City Royals
Alex Rios, OF, Kansas City Royals
David DeJesus, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Jimmy Rollins, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Torii Hunter, OF, Minnesota Twins
Mike Pelfrey, SP, Minnesota Twins
Bartolo Colon, SP, New York Mets
Stephen Drew, 2B, New York Yankees
Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
A.J. Burnett, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Shawn Kelley, RP, San Diego Padres
Brandon Morrow, SP, San Diego Padres
Tim Hudson, SP, San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants
Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Mark Buehrle, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Many of the names seen above are notable names, many well past their prime years though. Cliff Lee and Joe Nathan are not only on the later years of their career, they are returning from significant injuries. Torii Hunter recently announced his retirement. It's possible that Bartolo Colon, A.J. Burnett and Mark Buehrle retire after this year. Tim Hudson has already announced his intentions to retire. Other players on this list, such as Denorfia, DeJesus, Drew and Reynolds have not had a career that warrants a qualifying offer.
Players who are ineligible for qualifying offer
Gerardo Parra, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Austin Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs
Scott Kazmir, SP, Houston Astros
Johnny Cueto, SP, Kansas City Royals
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals
Chase Utley, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, New York Mets
Tyler Clippard, RP, New York Mets
Joakim Soria, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Marlon Byrd, OF, San Francisco Giants
Mike Leake, SP, San Francisco Giants
Mike Napoli, 1B/DH, Texas Rangers
Mark Lowe, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
David Price, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
These players will be the highly sought after players in this free agent class. The only price that these players cost will be...price. By being traded over the course of this year, none of these players are eligible to receive a qualifying offer.
Names like Cueto, Zobrist, Cespedes and Price immediately stand out as guaranteed recipients of a qualifying offer had they stayed with their original team. While many of these free agents had a reasonable chance at getting qualifying offers, the debate is irrelevant, they will be free agents without any draft pick compensation attached to them.
