Buy and Sell: Starting Pitchers For Week 14

Don't Be Shy Make Your Move, The Time Is Now

As we creep closer to baseball’s all star break every roster move and trade that you make is crucial and for better or worse can help you start to turn your season around. I don’t want you to panic but the window of opportunity for your team to make a move is closing ever so slowly. You’ve still got time to make up some ground but at this stage of this season it’s becoming increasingly difficult to make quick broad jumps in your league's standings. There's time to catch your league’s front runners but you need to make smart trades and waiver wire transactions for the right sleepers and buy-low candidates. You’re smart because you’re here and as always I ‘m here to help familiarize you with four pitchers that you should buy, and two pitchers you should sell. Grab a cold beverage and reach for your favorite snack. Sit back and check out my latest picks for starting pitching sleepers who can be bought and sold.

 

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers To Buy

Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers

Hyun-Jin Ryu is another one of those “under the radar” type of pitchers who just continues to go out and put together quality start after quality start. While Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke get the bulk of attention in the Dodger rotation, Ryu casually takes the mound every fifth day and has put together a rock-solid season with a 9-4 won/loss record, 3.12 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Those numbers are good enough to make him the ace on a number of pitching staffs but in Los Angeles no one seems to give him a second thought.

Everything Ryu does, he does it quietly. He simply mixes up his low 90’s fastball with an impressive arsenal of pitches with movement that include a good curve, a slider and a change-up. He’ll even keep hitters on their toes by throwing a cutter on occasion. His saber stats are eerily similar to those from last season when he won 14 games and with the Dodgers’ recent surge in the standings there is a good chance that he will surpass his win total from last year. If your fantasy team needs pitching help you should seek out the services of Hyun-Jin Ryu. This low flying pseudo ace may just be what the doctor ordered for your team and will produce solid ratios and Ks with a high win total.

 

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

Julio Teheran has played a big part in keeping the Atlanta Braves in first place in the NL East for much of the season. With injuries decimating key members of the Atlanta starting pitching staff Teheran has stepped up and picked up the slack. With a 2.35 ERA, .94 WHIP and two complete game shutouts to his credit this season, Teheran has been able to post seven wins despite the anemic Braves offense. Teheran sowed the seeds for his current dominant season last year when he finished a strong second half with a 7-3 won/loss record, 2.97 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and he hasn’t looked back since then.

Last season’s second half success has carried over to this season as he has lowered his line drive percentage to 17.6%, from 21.2.% last season (line drives tend to drop in for hits). He also took his 10.5% swinging strike rate, which was already above average, and pushed it higher to an exceptional 11.6%, which means he has big time K-upside. Opposing batters are currently hitting just .205 against him, down from .242 last year and he has lowered both his HR/9 and BB rates. The beauty of a guy like Teheran is that even though he is having a great year he is still a relatively unknown commodity for how good he actually is. The Braves have always had a knack for developing young pitching talent and it looks like they’ve found another keeper. Try adding Teheran to your pitching staff. You might be pleasantly surprised as to what kind of offer you would have to make in order to land him.

 

Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves

Let’s stick with the Atlanta Braves pitching staff and take a look at the underperforming Mike Minor. Why would I rate Minor, who is 2-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.48 WHIP a buy candidate? Take a look at his career first half numbers vs. his career second half numbers. While some pitchers run out of gas as the season grinds on, this guy has historically gotten better during the dog days of summer. For his career Minor’s first half numbers are nothing to brag about. He has a 17-17 won/loss record, 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. His career second half numbers are significantly better. He has a 17-12 won/loss record, 3.50 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

If you are looking for a hint that better days are ahead for Minor based on this season’s stats, check out his outstanding 3.56 SIERA, an ERA stand-in designed to measure how well a pitcher actually performs, as well as his 65% first strike rate which shows that he is doing a good job of getting ahead of hitters. Overall, Minor’s current numbers might not be too pretty and your fellow naive fantasy baseball manager might be puzzled about why you would ask about Minor’s availability in a trade, but if history repeats itself as it often does, Mike Minor’s numbers will look a heck of a lot better come September.

 

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

After his last start in which he pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out seven and walking two batters, Gio Gonzalez has developed into a player that if you want him, you will need to make your move now before his value skyrockets. At first glance his season stats appear rather pedestrian: 5-4 won/loss record, 3.93 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. If you look a bit deeper you will see that he has improved his swinging strike rate to a magnificent 11.5% ( 8.5% is considered solid for a starting pitcher ) and he has lowered his line drive percentage to 17.5% (20% is considered average). He has also significantly reduced his HR/FB rate to 6.7%, down from a 9.7% rate last season.

Gonzalez’s SIERA currently stands at an above average 3.69 and opposing batters are hitting just .227 against him. Together these stats tell me that it is only a matter of time before Gonzalez goes on a prolonged hot streak, and with the Nats' lineup fully healthy for the first time, he will rack up the Wins on top of solid ratios and strikeouts. If you want to be the beneficiary of this potential upswing in his season you had better act fast.

 

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers To Sell

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

It's going out on a limb recommending Stras as a sell candidate, especially after his big bounceback performance Tuesday night (7.2 IP, 1 ER, 8:1 K:BB), but I’ve got a bad feeling about him. When I start seeing quotes from him saying that "I'm not right mechanically right now, and I think it's causing [hitters] to see the ball a lot better" I start to worry.

Is he saying that he is tipping his pitches and will he have to make adjustments to his delivery in midseason? How is that going to affect his performance going forward? His statement and that fact that he gave up four and seven runs in his two starts prior to his Tuesday gem makes you question whether you can rely on him to lead your fantasy team’s starting pitching staff or if you should put him on the trading block. I vote for the latter, but dont' do this lightly and make sure you get a huge return! It seems that lately you never know which Strasburg will show up on the mound on any given day. Will it be the Strasburg who can shut a team out and ring up double digit strike outs or will it be the Strasburg who got blown away at Miller Field two starts ago?

There are some troubling trends in his stats this season. His line drive percentage has jumped to 22.7% compared to an excellent rate of 17.5% last year, meaning he's trading groudballs for line drives that land for hits much more frequently. His velocity is down just about one mph this season, which doesn’t seem like all that much, but it’s at its lowest rate for Strasburg’s major league career. On the other hand, his K/BB ratio is at a career best and elite 5.35, his .357 BABIP will regress a bit, and he's on pace for his first 200 IP season. Strasburg is medium risk high reward which isn't what you look for from your ace. If your fantasy team is in a tight race for a playoff spot and is in no position to wait for Strasburg to figure out what is wrong with his delivery, then you need to let your fellow fantasy baseball owners know that Strasburg is available and work on converting him into fantasy gold (a lot of it!).

 

Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners

Hisashi Iwakuma is a very good pitcher but a neck injury is hindering his season and he will either end up on the DL or remain in the Mariner rotation pitching well below the level that he is capable of when fully healthy. Iwakuma started the season on the DL and didn’t make his first start until 5/3. He has pitched well at times but he just hasn’t been the same pitcher from last season as he has given up more than four runs in five of his thirteen starts thus far. When compared to his numbers from last season his K/9 rate is down, his HR/9 rate is up and his swinging strike rate is down two points from last year and currently stands at a below average 8.3%.

He’s lost almost two MPH off of his fastball since 2012 and his batting average against is forty one points higher this season when compared to last season. It's possible another DL stint may be what is needed for Iwakuma to get back on track and pitch like he is capable of. If your fantasy team can withstand a prolonged absence from a quality starter like Iwakuma then congratulations you must have a deep roster. If not then you need to put him on the trading block ASAP!